The run of hot and dry days continue within the areas of this thread. Wednesday still looks to be a bit of a storm day for us but more of a dry storm. With the dry fuel on the ground from all the growth we had during those wet periods, one good lightning strike could set off bushfires.

The storm for tomorrow and maybe Thursday has changed considerably since I had 1st mentioned it a few days back. The storm chokes itself at 24,000 feet ( approx), there is moisture above that height, but it has to try and fall to the ground through a dry and hot environment.

Below is the storm cast for Wednesday . The other thing to consider is some of the models only have the storm making it to the range and not to the Coast, but that can change if we get enough of a NE wind came in off the Bay and Sea.



The original sounding from the model shows the moisture trapped above at 24,000 feet and the dry slot below. There is also a strong cap in place. Just really need to see tomorrow’s Sounding in real time to get a more accurate picture.



If it heats up slightly quicker by a few degrees and the dew point could reach 20°C ( which maybe hard due to the dry air) we could see the cap broken but we still have the moisture way above us and not a great deal in the lower levels.

The new plotted sounding.



It really is a wait and see what eventuates. There is a lot of cape, instability etc sitting out in the ocean but just not enough inland at this stage. The best thing is to keep an eye to the sky and an ear for any warnings if storms do get going. Also if you are in a bushfire prone area, it would be wise to have your fire plan in order and bug out bags ready just in case. This is not to scare but just being realistic. And please note, these are my simplified take on the models and should not be treated as warnings or accurate. Things do change quickly. I try and simplify weather as much as I possibly can. Weather should be in a way that everybody can understand!