There s still a low chance or a thunderstorm today and on Thursday. But it really is a wait and see as real time data is released. Each run diminishes the chance of decent rain and having enough energy and instability in the atmosphere.

We were expecting to have a wet spring but that has been turned on its head for the time being due to the hot air above the Antarctic. It had a 30-35°C increase over the last few weeks which has thrown the other weather drivers out of the picture to a very high degree. In time this SSW will fade will cool and maybe the El Niño will once again return as the main driver as previously forecasted to do so. Once again we will have to see the full effect of the SSW and what will then become the dominant weather drivers for the rest of Spring/Summer.

Below is an extract from the ABC in regards to the SSW.

The temperature high above Antarctica has climbed more than 30 degrees Celsius in the past week.

This is known as Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW), an event that has the potential to disrupt weather patterns across Australia for months.

SSWs are extremely rare in the Southern Hemisphere, with only two major events documented in the past 60 years — one in 2002 and the other in 2019 — and both resulted in some of the most devastating bushfires in Australia's history.

While a wetter background environment should prevent a repeat of Black Summer in 2025, the warming has thrown a major spanner in the works of the spring forecast — a shift already being felt throughout the country, including the current run of unseasonable heat along the east coast.

The full article can be found here.

https://www.abc.net.au/n...lia-for-months/105817572