I thought I would post Bom’s forecast map and then compare it with the soundings and see the difference.





🌀 Saturday 11 October 2025 – BoM vs. Model-Based Outlook (SEQ & NE NSW)

The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest thunderstorm forecast (issued 9:36 am) paints a notably different scenario to what earlier model soundings and private analyses were indicating for today.
BoM Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms likely: Darling Downs & Granite Belt (Warwick–Stanthorpe corridor).
Severe thunderstorms possible: Extending west through the Maranoa & Warrego and north into the Wide Bay hinterland.

General thunderstorm potential: Broader inland coverage across the Central West and Gulf Country.
This suggests BoM sees focused severe potential in the far south-east, contrasting with the earlier guidance which kept instability more confined west and north of the Darling Downs.

Model and Sounding Discussion
Soundings through Toowoomba, Moree, and inland SEQ yesterday and early this morning highlighted several limiting factors:
CAPE: Generally low to moderate (100–300 J/kg), insufficient for widespread severe activity.

Capping layer: Noticeable around 700 mb, though weaker near Toowoomba, hinting at breakable inhibition under local lift.

Moisture: A persistent dry mid-level layer limiting sustained updraft depth and reducing storm coverage.

However, the Toowoomba sounding at 21Z (11 Oct) showed slightly improved boundary-layer moisture and a minor reduction in CIN, which could locally support convection near the southern border if surface heating aligns with trough convergence.

So why does BoM now go for a “severe likely” zone near Warwick–Stanthorpe?

Likely reasons include:
Localized convergence: Sharpening of the surface trough along the NSW border.
Orographic lift: Enhancement from the Granite Belt terrain.
Moisture pooling: Late-day boundary layer recovery possibly better than modelled by GFS.
Alternate guidance: BoM’s ACCESS-G suite may be showing stronger CAPE and slightly improved upper divergence.

Essentially, BoM is targeting a narrow corridor where these factors overlap — not a broad severe day, but an area where one or two isolated storms could reach severe thresholds if initiation occurs.


While models still indicate limited overall coverage due to dry mid-levels and marginal instability, BoM’s update supports keeping a close watch on the southern Downs and Granite Belt this afternoon.
If storms do break the cap, expect localized strong gusts, small hail, and brief heavy rainfall, mainly toward the border districts.
Elsewhere, conditions remain too capped or too dry aloft for significant activity.

So once again, keep an eye and ear out in case any storms do develop and a STW is required.