Todays storm potential,

The morning’s soundings show a mixed picture across the region.

Brisbane has a reasonably moist boundary layer but only weak to modest instability this morning; Moree and Charleville look drier and more stable.

Both the ECMWF and GFS runs for later today suggest only modest CAPE (low hundreds of J/kg) in places.

Brisbane’s sounding this morning shows decent low-level moisture (PW ≈ 39–40 mm, Td ∼ 17°C) but only weak instability (LI ≈ −1). Inland soundings (Moree/Charleville) are noticeably drier and more stable.

The GFS/ECMWF afternoon runs indicate modest CAPE (a few hundred J/kg) and light CIN — so conditional convection is possible.

The critical factors to watch: any early clearing (to add surface heating), mesoscale convergence lines, or the exact timing/strength of the southerly change. If the cap is removed locally, expect isolated to scattered storms that could pulse up rapidly; however, widespread severe activity looks unlikely from “the present fields.”


This morning was overcast and cool which was suppressing widespread heating, but right now it seems to warming up and the sun is breaking through. That said, these setups are always sensitive: if the clouds thin and the surface warms, which it appears to be, or if the approaching southerly change sets up a focused convergence line, small areas could see storms fire up quickly.

Most places will probably stay quiet or only see showers; a few locations could get stronger, short-lived storms if conditions come together.

Bottom line: not a classic severe day, but worth watching for locally active convection if the sky clears and a trigger (sea-breeze/front/outflow) lines up.

To be honest the old “rules of thumb” for when storms do or don’t form have become less reliable. Boundaries, timing, and subtle thermodynamic changes are producing setups that can look marginal on paper yet erupt into strong, sometimes severe, convection.

Below is EC’s forecast of the Southerly change. Each model has slightly different timing. So this will also play a big part in todays setup and potential.

So once again, these are my take on today. Please stay up to date with BoM. So keep an eye to the sky or radar, and also for any warnings if storms build and become severe .