Latest from JTWC. No track yet.
WTPS21 PGTW 090030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6S 147.9E TO 17.8S 146.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 32 TO 37 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8S 147.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.4S 152.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 147.9E, APPROXIMATELY 223 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A
HIGHLY ELLIPTICAL AND BROAD CIRCULATION WITH AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE
INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS IN RECENT
HOURS. A 082223Z METOP-B ASCAT REVEALS EXPANSIVE BELTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS
WINDS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KTS IN
RECENT HOURS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF GALE-FORCE WINDS, THE CIRCULATION
IS NOT YET COMPACT OR WELL-DEFINED ENOUGH TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND DECENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOWS STEADY CONSOLIDATION
AND CONTRACTION OF THE BROAD WIND FIELD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
TRANSITS SOUTHWEST TOWARDS AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 32 TO 37 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100030Z.//
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and Zoom Earth shows its just turned southwards.
Invest 92P (Tropical Low 12U) LIVE Tracker, Updates & Forecast | Zoom Earth
https://zoom.earth/storm...26/#overlays=radar,fires
