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Posted by: crikey Offline Posted: Sunday, 29 September 2019 2:18:13 PM(UTC)
Originally Posted by: Ken Go to Quoted Post


Nah crikey, it’s just to do with the way different models parameterise convection.
Most models produce CAPE and many other parameters as part of their suite of products, including ACCESS-R.

Monday still looks like featuring coastal shower activity starting to spread along the central and northern NSW coast then into parts of coastal SE QLD later or early Tuesday..... before extending further north to the Wide Bay and Capricornia Coast on Tuesday where some moderate falls are possible (aided by an upper trough moving up from NSW).

The more numerous thunderstorm activity on Tuesday looks like it may be a bit inland of the coast as far as SE QLD goes.

I can't see any huge falls for SE QLD itself but some locations near the coastal fringe and islands may see a nice drop as well as those locations which manage to get lucky under a storm or heavier showers.

P.S. ACCESS-G's going to completely replace ACCESS-R (currently scheduled date is December) because it's going to run at the same resolution as R as part of its next upgrade (but since there’s a grace period before all ACCESS-R data is switched off, not all websites may display the new version straight away). So you'll probably notice finer resolution in the ACCESS-G maps in the 3-7 day forecast time period once that happens.

Also worth noting that the current version of ACCESS-R has had a long known tendency for coastal locking i.e. cuts back precip over land by an unrealistical amount at night while maintaining it over the water which results in unrealistically steep gradients in nocturnal precip between land and sea. The decrease in convective precip over land at night does happen to some extent in the real world but ACCESS-R is known for doing it too much. This problem has been completely eliminated in the current version of ACCESS-C.
As a sidenote, the ACCESS-GE ensemble as well as the ACCESS-C ensemble and the next upgrade to ACCESS-C is in the pipeline although I’m not sure if they'll be made public.



Thanks KEN. The nuts and bolts of models is something l know nothing about. So l totally accept what you say.

As l know this is one of your areas of expertise.

What l do look out for being a pattern observer is why GFS CAPE spatial pattern was spot on regarding position of activity, whereas ACC r was off the mark? Most other times it is spot on in positioning generally and so l look for answers.

Matching ACC against stormcast CAPE is something l have never done before and so the investigation begins
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