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Posted by: Ken Offline Posted: Friday, 4 October 2019 6:05:29 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Pabloako Go to Quoted Post
Not a drop showing up on WATL for Tuesday.

It's probably worth noting that the WATL maps won't show anything below 1mm (the bottom of its colour scale) so it can sometimes not display patchy low-rainfall precip.

If you look at its chance of rain maps, you can see a small percentage of its range of models are currently extending a bit of precip up into southern SE QLD on Tuesday (between 10pm Mon and 10pm Tue).

In these cases, it's probably better to look at the chance of any rainfall (which use a threshold of 0.2mm or greater) maps such as the one from Meteye for Tuesday (midnight to midnight) - this one also has manual adjustments made to the raw model data - see first example above.

The 2nd image above is the chance of any rainfall for 10pm Mon to 10pm Tue generated by the last 6 runs of GFS combined with the US Navy ensemble.

If there is any precip in SE QLD on Tuesday, it'll probably be in the form of some very low-rainfall shower or thunderstorm activity (there's a distinct possibility that some storms may become severe next week).
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