Next week looks like a case of the good old "how far north will the upper trough arc up?" question re how much or little rainfall we'll get here in SE QLD later next week. Severe storms look a distinct possibility though due to the shear (as long as things don't become a cloudy rainy mess too early).

My usual instinct is to favour the NSW coast for the best rainfall whenever the setup involves "southern type" systems such as the upcoming front and upper trough with SE QLD getting a toned down version of it... but every setup has differences so I'd be reluctant to pigeonhole this setup into that category atm.

If the upper trough swings up far enough into the eastern interior of QLD and stays strong, it'd put us in the broadscale upmotion zone to its east which would boost our chances of more substantial rainfall in addition to just showers/storms (this would also happen if the trough cuts off a separate low just to our west, or if a surface trough deepens just to our west as well).
On the other hand, if the upper trough stays too far so south, any rainfall would be mostly convective rather than a major rain event.
I saw yesterday's 00z EC had a wild bombing ECL near the NSW or southern QLD coast scenario which would probably signal the end of the event for areas to its north if it occurred (after any prior rainfall) but heavy rain and gales to its south.

Meanwhile a bit of max temp uncertainty this weekend with the cooler S to SE change reaching here a more realistic possibility than it was a few days ago.

Above is the latest ACCESS-S output for probabilities of exceeding 10mm between the 7th and 13th October.

Regardless of whether any rainfall is sporadic showers and storms, or a more substantial rain event, the shear looks great so as long as there's storms and things don't become a cloudy rainy mess from early on, there could well be some severe storms somewhere in the region.