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Posted by: Ken Offline Posted: Saturday, 5 October 2019 7:31:03 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: CantSpellNarangba Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Ken Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: CantSpellNarangba Go to Quoted Post
WATL and some other models I have checked have given up on any rain or chance of rain to end of a very hot day on Tuesday, so a dry cool change looks like it may happen now.

There actually are a few models that are still going for some very low rainfall amounts for locations such as Brisbane but the percentage of all the models doing that is fairly low. WATL won't show anything below 1mm so there are some times when very low rainfall showers or storms won't show up in it. Better to check the chance of any rainfall maps in that case.



Thanks Ken. I have just checked the chance of rainfall on WATL and it is completely white for our area. Sad


Yep it's probably because the few models that are producing precip are only producing amounts below 1mm for the most part. Above are the accumulating rainfall scenarios from a number of models for Narangba. As you can see, a few of the models are going for a bit of precip at some stage up to 10pm Tue but most of those are below 1mm and the majority of those models aren't producing anything.
Also above is the Bureau's chance of any rainfall map (0.2mm or higher) for Tuesday which is the end result of raw model data with manual adjustments where deemed necessary.

In any case, it's pretty academic though. Even if any showers or storms form on Tuesday, most of those would be low-rainfall ones so definitely not something to pin hopes on if you're wanting any worthwhile rain amounts.
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