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Posted by: Ken Offline Posted: Monday, 14 October 2019 8:10:23 AM(UTC)
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1st graphic above - the EC ensemble's latest suggestion for early Tuesday morning re probabilities of precip between 4am and 7am.
2nd graphic - EC deterministic for 1am-4am and 4am-7am.

Early Tuesday morning looks like featuring a small area of localised shower activity in the far SE corner and NE NSW, perhaps even with some thunder (although the latter is a bit less than certain atm).
Rainfall amounts don't look impressive at all though, nor long-lasting. Nothing like Fri/Sat.

One of the contributors appears to be a small weak low (most noticeable at the surface to 850hpa levels) drifting across inland QLD/NSW border areas that extends up through to the mid levels more as a very short wavelength trough... and a nocturnal low level jet ahead of it which may also help to inject some additional moisture into the region.
There's fairly noticeable low level capping around that time so most convection may initiate from mildly unstable parcels rising from somewhat aloft rather than purely from the surface.

Wednesday might see some inland locations having the outside chance of a shower or storm.
But Thursday's still looking interesting with much stronger instability and shear so wouldn't rule out severe storms somewhere.
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