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Posted by: Ken	Posted: Monday, 28 October 2019 6:02:21 PM(UTC)
In contrast with the high confidence of the upcoming good rain coming up for the southern interior of QLD, there's still a fair bit of chopping and changing going on with how much rainfall will reach us from the southern system (front and upper trough) that's due to sweep across VIC/TAS/NSW from the end of this week and approach us early next week. Some models have been going for big falls for here while some confined the heavier falls to our southwest. As a general rule of thumb, I personally tend to be somewhat pessimistic about such systems delivering really good rainfall for our area unless they're exceptionally vigorous and there's a good onshore flow ahead of them. But there's enough exceptions to that rule to avoid using it as a blanket rule for every system. Above is the percentage of scenarios from the US Navy ensemble and the past 6 runs of GFS that have been going for more than 25mm of accumulated rainfall at some stage between this Friday morning and next Wednesday morning (and thereby encompassing the next system). As you can see, indecisive probabilities for our local area at the moment compared to further southwest of us. But regardless of what happens, some shower activity does still look like developing here towards the end of this week before then.
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