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Wednesday, 11 March 2020 11:12:13 AM(UTC)
Wonder who will win out here? local knowledge? one says yes, the other says no....
A tropical low was located near 12.1S 115.7E at 8am WST Tuesday, about 380km south of Bali and 970km north of Karratha. This system is forecast to move south towards the northwest of Western Australia throughout the week and lie near the west Pilbara coast by Friday morning.
There is only a low chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone, as conditions are broadly unfavourable for significant development.
However, squally conditions and heavy rainfall are possible over the western Pilbara from later on Thursday as the system approaches.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0S 113.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 116.8E, APPROXIMATELY
523 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101352Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION CENTERED OVER A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 101239Z METOP-A
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTH WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION.
94S IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW (<15KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 94S WILL SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
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