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Sunday, 1 September 2019 9:15:13 AM(UTC)
Originally Posted by: Paul Atkins
Time is ticking and the Northern Region & Gulf 2019/2020 Cyclone Season is on its way. What will happen this season?
BOM website does a seasonal outlook
The tropical cyclone season runs from 1 November to 30 April
About the outlooks
This outlook uses the statistical relationships between tropical cyclone numbers and two indicators: the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly. These two indicators provide a measure of the atmospheric and oceanic state, respectively, of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
The July, August and September SOI and NINO3.4 values were used in making the tropical cyclone season outlook.
Interpreting the outlook
Percentages such as a 60% chance of having more tropical cyclones than average (or a 40% chance of having fewer) mean that for every ten years with similar climate patterns to those currently observed, six years would be expected to have an above-average number of tropical cyclones and four years would be expected to have a below-average number.
The long-term average number of tropical cyclones per season in the Australian region (since 1969–70) is eleven, with four typically making landfall. Since the year 2000, there have been an average of nine tropical cyclones in the Australian region each season.
During El Niño events, there are typically less tropical cyclones than average, while more tend to occur during La Niña events.
As always, it is essential that all local communities prepare for the cyclone season regardless of the outlook.
There is also a link to current warning for tropical cyclones
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