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Posted by: Weary Offline Posted: Monday, 18 January 2021 7:34:56 PM(UTC)
Loving the JTWC remarks, who knew that disagreement in the numerical models was a “squashed spider” and that “low confidence” meant high uncertainty.

WITH RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING AN EASTWARD TURN. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT (SO CALLED SQUASHED SPIDER)
BUT REFLECTS A GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH AN EQUATORWARD TRACK
CHANGE BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
(WITH COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR) IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND
STEER IT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72.
DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING INFLUENCES AND POOR MODEL
AGREEMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK
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