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Tuesday, 3 September 2019 6:59:34 PM(UTC)
Originally Posted by: Pabloako
Welcome to the forum TropicalBomb and thank you for the links.
Here's hoping for an active, but non-destructive cyclone season.
BOM have published the outlook
29 August 2019 Next issue 25 June 2020
Late rainfall onset likely for much of northern Australia
The chance of an early northern rainfall onset for the 2019-20 season is low over large parts of northern Australia. Areas which have a less than 30% chance of an early rainfall onset include much of the Top End and central parts of the NT, Cape York Peninsula and eastern Queensland, and the far north Kimberley in WA. In other words, these areas have a greater than 70% chance of a late rainfall onset. Most of northern WA has roughly equal chances of an early or late rainfall onset.
The northern rainfall onset outlook gives an indication of whether the first significant rains after 1 September are likely to be earlier or later than normal
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, and forecasts indicate it is likely to remain neutral to at least the end of 2019. This means it is unlikely to be influencing the northern rainfall onset outlook towards either an earlier or later than average onset.
However, waters in the western tropical Pacific Ocean remain warmer than normal, while water temperatures around northern Australia are average to cooler than average. This pattern would typically favour cloud formation away from northern Australia.
The Indian Ocean sea surface temperature pattern remains consistent with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This is expected to persist for the coming months. A positive IOD typically leads to drier than average conditions across northern Australia during the second half of the year. IOD events typically break down in early December, so this driver is unlikely to have a significant influence on rains beyond early December.
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