Friday 5 January 2024. The models are pointing to widespread showers with possible storms. At this stage storms are not expected to be severe. In saying that there is still a slight chance of the odd cell or two that could go against the trend. This would be the inland Southern interior and possibly in the SEQLD and NE NSW area and the reason for saying this is due to the storm system that lashed Sydney yesterday and surrounds is expected to move forward in Northerly direction into those areas.

But going from the modelling systems, they are not picking up severe storms at this stage. TotalTotals (TT’s) at this stage have a value of 43. This indicates isolated weak storms, unlike the TT’s of 56 last week that saw destructive storms over a large area.

On the sounding the cap has a minus 1.3°C which means storms could fire of very easily. So from all the modelling system, in reality we could see widespread thundery showers or just showers.
But it is just worth keeping an eye on any warnings for the slight chance any cells do become severe.

The forecast sounding has a lot of moisture pointing towards showers. ( Be interesting to see the realtime comparison from the airport sounding this morning.



BoMs meteye has widespread showers/storms or if you wish thundery showers.



The last 3 are the GFS and EC stormcast. Low Li’s and cape values.