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Posted by: Ken Offline Posted: Sunday, 15 September 2019 3:52:21 PM(UTC)
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Nice work CSN, and thanks for starting up the thread BigGrin

Yeah going by EC, a NW-SE oriented surface trough and front moves up over NSW, deepens over inland northern NSW and possibly forms a small weak low or two there as an upper trough approaches from the west and amplifies. The area of low pressure then intensifies as an east coast low once it reaches waters along the northern-central NSW coast while the upper trough also amplifies further and cuts off a mid/upper low.
But since our region looks like being on the northern end of this setup, it still doesn't look like we'll get too much in the way of any widespread rainfall amounts. More like a bit of short-lived shower and thunderstorm activity later on Tuesday before a drier SW flow wrapping up and around the ECL comes over us and quickly clears it away. But once the ECL gradually weakens offshore, it looks like it might allow a reasonably moist onshore NE flow to become re-established over our region (although not manifesting itself with that much rainfall except for a bit of coastal shower activity).

Basically, the further south you go along the NSW coast, the better the rainfall amounts (parts of the coast on the southern flank of that low may even get moderate to locally heavy falls developing).

1st graphic above - accumulating rainfall scenarios from a range of models for Brisbane out to 10 days.

2nd graphic - accumulated/composite lightning flash density from EC for Tuesday (in case you're not aware already, it's from Windy.com and you can view all sorts of stuff on there).

3rd graphic - the percentage of scenarios from a combo of the past 6 runs of GFS and the US Navy ensemble that are currently forecasting more than 25mm of total rainfall within the next 5 days (up to the end of Thursday).
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