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Posted by: Colmait Offline Posted: Tuesday, 23 January 2024 1:54:48 PM(UTC)
Originally Posted by: FNQ Bunyip Go to Quoted Post

Looking at the Willis radar it is very hard to reconcile that with that windy image above.
This one is really dragging it's heels and does not want to develop.


Cheers


Totally agree. The BoM’s Meteye has the Willis Island radar embedded into the track path and is part of the modelling system it uses. (Part of the real time they factor into the model).
There is not a lot of cloud or rotation even when you expand out to 512K on the Willis Island Radar.

Below is 512K Willis Island and the meteye to show much the same imagery.

IMG_3587.jpeg

IMG_3584.jpeg


The GFS model is only showing a HPa of 991, EC 996 and access 995 HPa. I would have expected to see that to be a lot lower by now.
The system has been sitting out there for so long, I wonder how much fuel it has left. The water temps are hot but it needs to really start moving or it is doomed to become a cyclone. I believe they have even downgraded the strength of the system as it crosses, (if). I am more worried of a rain depression crossing and hugging the Coast and heading down this way. But all this can still change. This evening should tell us a lot more.
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