Another year has began and so a new thread has been opened to discuss the weather in the South East of Queensland and the North East of NSW. Any major events that may occur within these boundaries we can open a new thread so we can discuss what is happening and archive it for later use.

Stay safe and hopefully we don’t have a repeat of 2025.

There are a few storms building around the South East at the moment. No warnings have been issued as yet. This is the radar image at 4.05pm:

Today’s environment across SE QLD and NE NSW remains conditional but potentially active, with several competing factors influencing storm development.
Atmospheric soundings (Brisbane observed and GFS guidance for Brisbane and Toowoomba) indicate:

Strong instability remains in place with CAPE generally 2500–3500 J/kg
Lifted Index values near –8 to –9
Total Totals around 50–52, slightly higher than yesterday
Cold mid-level temperatures near –35°C, supporting strong updraft potential
Deep-layer shear sufficient for organised multicells and isolated supercells
However, there are also notable limiting factors:
Dry air present through the mid-levels (700–500 mb)
Moderate convective inhibition (~30–40 J/kg)
Moisture depth remains somewhat shallow, particularly near the coast
This means storm initiation is not guaranteed and will likely depend on mesoscale triggers rather than large-scale forcing.
The main mechanism to monitor this afternoon is the NE sea breeze, which may:

Increase low-level moisture
Lower convective inhibition
Enhance convergence along inland-moving boundaries
Should this occur, storms that develop may intensify rapidly due to the strongly unstable and sheared environment.
If convection initiates successfully, hazards may include:

Damaging to locally destructive wind gusts
Large hail
Very heavy rainfall, particularly given slower storm motions
The highest risk remains inland SE QLD and NE NSW, with Brisbane and coastal areas more likely to see showers or embedded thunderstorms unless boundary interactions become favourable later in the day.
Overall, this is a low-coverage but high-impact setup, where storm development is uncertain, but any storm that forms could quickly become severe.

To simply put it today is a tricky setup.
There is plenty of energy in the atmosphere, and conditions are capable of producing strong to severe storms — but storms are not guaranteed to form.

The positives:

Very hot surface temperatures
High instability
Cold air aloft
Strong winds higher in the atmosphere
Total Totals slightly higher than yesterday
The negatives:
Dry air above the surface
A moderate cap that needs to be broken
Limited large-scale forcing
Because of this, storms will rely heavily on local triggers, especially the NE sea breeze pushing inland this afternoon.
If the sea breeze brings enough moisture and convergence, storms could develop quickly and become strong, with risks including damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall.

If this does not occur, many areas may only see showers or miss out entirely.

In short:
Storm coverage is uncertain, but any storm that does form could pack a punch.


Below are the soundings for Brisbane from BoM then followed by Brisbane GFS, Toowoomba and Warwick GFS.










Below is the Li for the regions within this thread .



So the best thing to do is just keep an eye on the sky and if storms are able to build and become severe listen for any warnings. A tricky setup once again.

Just a heads up for possible severe storms and heavy rain over the next 4 days. I have received several text and email warnings for the upcoming weather event. It is quite serious if everything all happens as the modelling suggests. So lease keep an eye out for warnings and stay of flooded roads.





HEAVY, LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST QUEENSLAND FROM LATE THURSDAY EVENING.

Weather Situation: A southerly wind change will move into the South East Coast overnight Thursday into Friday morning, before stalling over the Wide Bay and Burnett during Friday afternoon/evening. Meanwhile, an approaching mid-level trough combines with high atmospheric moisture and humid onshore flow to produce persistent rainfall over parts of the South East Coast, southern Wide Bay and Burnett and eastern Darling Downs and Granite Belt from Thursday evening.

HEAVY, LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING is forecast to develop about the South East Coast from late Thursday evening, extending inland to southern Wide Bay and Burnett and eastern Darling Downs and Granite Belt during Friday morning. Six-hourly rainfall totals between 50 to 90 mm are likely, with isolated higher falls to around 150 mm possible.


Stay safe

The latest stw for the SeQLD

It's looking like we have some heavy rain on the way here in SE Qld. This is the 256km radar image from 8.40am this morning:





There is still a floodwatch warning in place for most of Qld, including for some of the rivers in SE Qld. This is the warning that was issued by BOM yesterday afternoon:

Thank you for the updates @Aussie Girl.

It was interesting that GFS well over a week ago had this system moving off the Coast via the North and South Coast including Brisbane. But to be fair like many of the other models, there was a lot of swapping and changing with each run. I think by Friday, there was a fair bit of agreement that the system may just skim the North Coast as it made its exist and for Brisbane there was thought to be maybe showers. Just highlights how quickly things change. I just find that GFS has a good handle on the SE QLD and NE NSW areas. But that is my feelings.

There should be a low form overnight near Hervey Bay just off the Coast, but it quickly moves to the South East and should drag this system with it through out Monday. I have posted the low below.

Stay safe and keep listening for updates and warnings that may be issued.

You may be fortunate enough to enjoy a bit of a storm this afternoon. There is a blanket warning out as the Southerly change is moving to the North which should cool temperatures down a little.

Edited by user Friday, 13 March 2026 1:30:19 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Pretext was way off. LOL

Here we are in May already. The weather for this part of the forum was very mundane with a very dry April and rather warm temperatures.

Our next big weather event is the El Niño that everyone is speaking about. It is one of uncertainty. The worlds conveyor belt that drives the cooler waters around the world from Arctic to Arctic is slowing down and causing or creating havoc with our weather. That is another big topic for another day.




But in the last few days we have had some cloudy days with showers the on Monday 18 May we had good solid rain. The Gold Coast region was the hardest hit. So I have posted the ABC article that explains some of the events that unfolded. As for the rest of Tuesday we should see the rain trough from the West move over the South East and clear out to sea late tonight.





https://www.abc.net.au/n...;utm_source=abc_news_web


Gold Coast lashed with month's worth of rain in one day and flash flooding
By Josh Dye
ABC Gold Coast
Topic:Weather
23h ago
23 hours ago
flooded field
Flooding at Mudgeeraba Showground. (ABC Gold Coast: Dominic Cansdale)
In short:
The weather bureau says minor to moderate flooding is occurring across the Nerang, Coomera and Pimpama Rivers.
Beachgoers are being warned to be mindful of a powerful swell and large tidal variations.
What's next?
Clearer skies and sunshine will return on Wednesday, meaning colder nights, with the mercury set to plummet to 4 degrees Celsius in Stanthorpe.
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A severe thunderstorm warning is in place for the Gold Coast after it was hit with a month's worth of rain in 24 hours.

Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) forecaster Morgan Pumper said Natural Bridge, in the hinterland, had received 214 millimetres over the past 24 hours, with 172mm also soaking the Gold Coast Seaway.

"We're definitely seeing above average at the moment," Ms Pumper said.

"Just looking at May, the rainfall totals are around 77.8 millimetres at the seaway.

"So we've already seen that the last 24 hours easily and the chance [of] getting an even further amount over a two-day period, we're definitely looking at our monthly average already."

The severe weather warning was issued shortly after 5pm, with Springbrook, Tallebudgera and Miami most likely to be impacted by thunderstorms and flash flooding over the next several hours.

A flood warning is in place for parts of the Gold Coast, with the Nerang and Pimpama Rivers experiencing minor to moderate flooding.

The Coomera River, Mudgeeraba Creek, and Tallebudgera and Currumbin Creeks are also experiencing minor flooding.

Ms Pumper said these waterways had become a "watch point" due to sustained rainfall.

"So just be careful around some of those rivers in the next 24 to 48 hours," she said.
"But really it's a bit of a watch point at the moment to see how much we do get."

She said the heavy rainfall was expected to continue until early tomorrow morning.

flood park
A flooded park in Mudgeeraba. (ABC Gold Coast: Dominic Cansdale)
The outlook clears up on Wednesday as most of Queensland bathes in sunshine.

Clearer skies in the south-east corner will result in much cooler nights as the overnight cloud cover disappears.

"We've got pretty warm minimum temperatures both [this] morning and Tuesday morning, around 18 to 19 degrees, so definitely a few degrees above average," senior meteorologist Harry Clark said.

"It's thanks to the extra cloud cover we're expecting as that cloud band comes over [today] and Tuesday.

"Once we get to Wednesday and this rain system starts to push off out to sea, we end up with an injection of dry air coming in from the south-west behind it.

"That's when our minimum temperatures will get cold in the south-east and broadly across the remainder of the state."

Overnight temperatures in Stanthorpe on the Southern Downs are forecast to plummet to 4 degrees Celsius on Friday, while Longreach in the state's west is looking at a low of 7C.

Powerful swells hit beaches

As the rain clears in coastal areas and the sun returns, the beaches are likely to become alluring.

But the weather bureau warns beachgoers to be wary of large swell and vast tidal variations.

"If you're headed to the beaches over the next few days, keep in mind we do have a fairly powerful easterly swell developing [today] and some pretty big tides as well," Mr Clark said.

"There will be a lot of water moving around our open beaches, so take care if you're headed down there."

Fine and sunny weather is forecast in central and northern parts of the state all week, with maximum temperatures in the mid-to-high 20s in Cairns, Townsville, Mackay, Rockhampton and Mount Isa.