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Thanks for that Vanuatu link 28deg. That is a fabulous synoptic to view the coral sea and your coastline. I will use that for sure. Access still has a tropical low forming in the coral by Monday But it is a small intense squat cell that will stay out in the Coral and transition SE. The monsoon trough straddled over the far north mainland looks the greatest threat. News is reporting 280ml in a day close to Townsville yesterday. 381 mm in stony creek Townsville s west. More rain on the forecast http://www.bom.gov.au/au...harts/synoptic_col.shtmlAccess still forecasting inland monsoonal low for WA. Only change is that the low stays inland and likely tracking south I don’t think there are major roads or towns in this remote area However what interests me if the intensity it may develop without being over ocean http://www.bom.gov.au/au...harts/viewer/index.shtml
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Originally Posted by: crikey  Thanks for that Vanuatu link 28deg. It's a good site that one. In the Season, I look several times a day. You start to see the cloud starting to get that slight little curve about it. It warned me of Yasi, about two weeks before. No idea why I thought it would come this way... I hardly knew anything about the weather back then, except the radar, the Vanuatu map, and cyclone tracks. That was when I joined Weatherzone. Not that I could hold a technical conversation these days. That monsoon trough is too far below us. I suffer ingrained FOMO, and we are. We've been getting passing showers mostly. So at least it's rain. EDIT: Vanuatu now has a Tropical Low. JTWC hasn't designated anything yet. https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html?tropicalEdited by user Thursday, 27 January 2022 5:01:38 PM(UTC)
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Yasi started my interest in weather 28deg. I got obsessed for years and delved in quite deeply. Even started a blog. My interest comes and goes these days. Access has made an upgrade on the coral sea tropical low Off the nth qld coast. Diameter still small but positioning much closer to the coastline. Also intensity has increased. Wonder if Bom have this on their watch list yet? http://www.bom.gov.au/au...harts/viewer/index.shtmlThe inland tropical low still in access forecast. It comes quite close to Broome.
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Originally Posted by: crikey Access has made an upgrade on the coral sea tropical low That's looking interesting. Vanuatu has dropped the T from the TL. If we get another seriously big one in the north, I'm hoping a few people will come out of the woodwork. It's a pity we all got dispersed.
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Watching and waiting for a wet season.
A small system would do, we don't want another Yassi any time soon.
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Is this Low over Vanuatu getting a bit of a slow swirl up?
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BOM cyclone watch acknowledging the tropical low in the coral sea off the Nth coast. They suggest the low is likely to intensify next week and current tracking is east away from the coast. http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/cyclone.shtmlAccess sees the intensification happening a little sooner and suggests tracking will be east and then south on transition to mid latitudes.
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It looks like a done and dusted cyclone for the east coast but if some high pressure rigging pushes north and keeps the ‘whirlpool’ in the lower equatorial latitudes the story could be extended.
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Yeah, can't see any action in our backyard for the next little while :(
Wonder what March and April will have in store for us?
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Access model has some interest developing for tropical lows . One low forms south of the gulf on Friday 25th feb and migrates east into the coral sea just off shore of the far north coast. Intensification begins and looks like possible initiation of cyclogenesis. Note that is 7 days away. There is potential cyclone development off the NW WA coast during the same time period. A seed of interest has been sown. http://www.bom.gov.au/au...harts/viewer/index.shtml
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Originally Posted by: crikey  How long have you been waiting to post that? and still it's all just good looking pictures on some models. A broad area of LOW in the north along a monsoon trough is all quite normal, not that you would know it of late. For any real action in the CS to be of concern we need westerly influence to push them back onto the coast, Most stuff the last couple of seasons just get sucked of to the E, SE to die a cold death in NZ. Bring it on, got some more drainage works to do and need good heavy stuff so I can get out in it and make the water go where I want. Cheers |
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Are you teasing me Bunyip😘 What’s wrong with fancy technical terms and colorful academic weather models? Access is looking ok for cyclone development much later in the week. The position of initiation in the coral sea is not too far south. Tick However the diameter of the low looks a bit average. I don’t think there has been a cyclone named in the coral in Boms jurisdiction this season? There outlook is expectant of some interest later in the week http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/cyclone.shtmlEdited by user Tuesday, 22 February 2022 2:17:12 PM(UTC)
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Haha told ya..
Seen it so many times, all these great looking pictures and then nothing.
Need to look for a real setup for the CS to give us an event.
Just doesn't feel like a wet season at the mo.
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I think the reason why Access has failed in its last 2 attempts to predict a cyclone is because the diameter of these rotations has been very small which leaves them vulnerable to changing unsuitable conditions for development.(There wind span has been small)
The low near Darwin is also small and l suspect it will come to nothing much.
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