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Offline Hayden  
#1 Posted : Wednesday, 12 April 2023 4:39:37 PM(UTC)

Rank: Newbie

Groups: Registered
Joined: 12/04/2023(UTC)
Posts: 1
Location: Tasmania

The questions below seek to better understand contributing factors that may impact the chances of a Bridgewater Jerry event not only forming but also not simply dissipating the next morning.
To help decide what data to collate with hope to refine the model in the future
To help automate Bridgewater Jerry event prediction without the need for manual intervention

1. If a Bridgewater Jerry event has been predicted to form (at midnight) by the model would it subsequently fizzle out and disperse if the observed weather data the following morning records rain and/or strong wind?
2. What is the average deviation range between predicted and actual observed weather conditions during Bridgewater Jerry season
1. Due Point
2. Pressure
3. Temperature
4. Wind Speed
3. Is there a date range considered to be the Bridgewater season?
4. Is a Bridgewater Jerry event more likely to occur
1. when winds blow from a certain direction?
2. During a Low weather system verses a High weather system?
3. When the ground is already wet from prior rainfall during the week before?
5. What accuracy should we consider the BOM provided Formulae of current Bridgewater Jerry Forecast Model to be (70% - 90%)?
6. Is it possible to increase Model accuracy? If so, how?
7. Would a personal weather station located at Bridgewater feeding data direct into the model help? If so, what sensors would it need include to be useful?
8. Is there a record of historic Bridgewater Jerry events held by BOM that can be provided?
9. Are there any physical FOG sensors at weather stations that sit within the Bridgewater Jerry catchment area? If so, do those fog sensors ignore loss of visibility caused by rain?
10. Is BOM data more accurate than those other 3rd party sites (weatherzone etc.)? If so, has an accuracy comparison between BOM vs other weather services been quantified?
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