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Offline Dormant  
#561 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 5:25:38 AM(UTC)
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Kinda funny, Bunyip. Nice peaceful afternoon, night and morning and looking at the radar it has skirted us despite doom and gloom from media. However, the stream might be sagging lower plus nullschool shows a definite circular pattern that invariable tracks south.
Adding, as I type, sprinkles are starting...
Offline FNQ Bunyip  
#562 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 7:16:01 AM(UTC)
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Well to be fair they did say from Sunday arvo for the good stuff to start.

Only 14mm here this morning. Glad I got the lawns done Friday arvo.

Looks like the Low is still a long way North.
What will the day bring ?



Cheers
Offline Weary  
#563 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 9:20:17 AM(UTC)
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Apparently us FNQ residents are bracing for a tropical cyclone.......

There go the toilet paper stocks again
Offline ronfishes  
#564 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 11:15:02 AM(UTC)
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Nice gusts at Arlington last night - 57knots. reports that it was possibly a waterspout.

Keep those pics coming @28, love the country out there in a good wet.
MTD:13.8mm
YTD:914.8mm
Offline scott123  
#565 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 11:39:29 AM(UTC)
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So whats the go here..?

Bom says no way ..but JTWC says this...

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 210 NM RADIUS OF 14.8S 146.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 161800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 146.4E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.4S 146.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 146.4E, APPROXIMATELY
133 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 162042Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED, SMALL LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. A 161531Z AMSR2 WIND SPEED ESTIMATE REVEALS WINDS OF 28-
33 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. INVEST 91P IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, WEAK (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, HISTORICALLY THE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE SYSTEMS
OF THIS SIZE WELL, THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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DelBoy on 17/01/2021(UTC)
Offline Weary  
#566 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 12:25:18 PM(UTC)
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Well bugger me, T C Kimi, due to hit the coast as cat2 at 10:00 hrs tomorrow
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DelBoy on 17/01/2021(UTC)
Offline Weary  
#567 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 12:28:08 PM(UTC)
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9F9D5030-3284-4014-80FC-4A11398C85FD.png
thanks 1 user thanked Weary for this useful post.
DelBoy on 17/01/2021(UTC)
Offline scott123  
#568 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 12:37:09 PM(UTC)
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Nice work BOM...not..!

Looks like it might get a bit squally for Bunyip and Dormant..
Offline 28degrees  
#569 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 12:38:32 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: ronfishes Go to Quoted Post
Keep those pics coming @28, love the country out there in a good wet.

Thanks Ron. Nothing more interesting at the moment, but here's a pic I took just now of the sky to the north east.

Just realised we've got Kimi turned up in the last couple hours. I did check earlier today but didn't see a hint.
IMG_20210117_122235~01_copy_1795x1346.jpg


I better get in first and text the track to friends/family down south, so they don't panic with the media beatup, like last time.

Edit: removed track, I'm a bit slow...

Edited by user Sunday, 17 January 2021 12:43:04 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Weary  
#570 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 1:28:49 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: scott123 Go to Quoted Post
Nice work BOM...not..!

Looks like it might get a bit squally for Bunyip and Dormant..


Dunno about that Scott, given that the predicted crossing point from BOM usually moves south with every update I much prefer to have it south of me rather than northBigGrin
Offline Weary  
#571 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 1:33:28 PM(UTC)
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34799F73-60A3-452D-AF86-15BEE6B43996.png
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DelBoy on 17/01/2021(UTC)
Offline Weary  
#572 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 1:38:44 PM(UTC)
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C1F58A93-71BC-43AA-9882-A2D8BE354872.png (1,481kb) downloaded 10 time(s).

Click on link for google earth JTWC overlay

Edited by user Sunday, 17 January 2021 1:40:08 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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beej on 17/01/2021(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#573 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 1:39:27 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Weary Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: scott123 Go to Quoted Post
Nice work BOM...not..!

Looks like it might get a bit squally for Bunyip and Dormant..


Dunno about that Scott, given that the predicted crossing point from BOM usually moves south with every update I much prefer to have it south of me rather than northBigGrin

Hmmmm.... This one could give Cairns a nice surprise. Out here we will just be grateful.

The sky can change pretty quickly can't it. Better bring that stuff off the clothes line. Lol.
IMG_20210117_133049~01_copy_1814x1332.jpg

Offline scott123  
#574 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 1:51:04 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Weary Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: scott123 Go to Quoted Post
Nice work BOM...not..!

Looks like it might get a bit squally for Bunyip and Dormant..


Dunno about that Scott, given that the predicted crossing point from BOM usually moves south with every update I much prefer to have it south of me rather than northBigGrin


Be careful what you wish for mate...you might just cop a zinger right through your own backyard..BigGrin

I certainly dont want it down here ..looks like just being a nuisance blow...


28, It looks so incredibly lush out there..the old council slasherman will certainly be busy..

Edited by user Sunday, 17 January 2021 1:52:05 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Weary  
#575 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 2:00:41 PM(UTC)
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Trust me Scott, I don’t want it either.

BTW. Does anyone know where all the cyclone nerds have gone to so they can argue about the finer technical details online?
Offline Dormant  
#576 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 2:23:47 PM(UTC)
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Yes, Weary, just a slight twitch of the curve and it's down to Cairns. As you say, I'd never want to be south of one coming ashore.
I only just came online and realise the presence of Kimi and sat thinking, what to do to prepare and really, I can't think of anything.

Edited by user Sunday, 17 January 2021 2:25:18 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline scott123  
#577 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 2:37:07 PM(UTC)
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Apparently Kimi is a midget...with a "highly uncertain" track and intensity forecast..

Tropical Cyclone Kimi 2021
Last Modified: 03:00 January 17, 2021 UTC
Cyclone Kimi 2021Kimi 2021
Kimi is located 209 km (113 nautical miles) north-northeast of Cairns, Australia, and has tracked southward at 6 km/h (3 knots) over the past 6 hours.
Satellite imagery shows that Kimi has rapidly developed into a midget tropical cyclone over the previous few hours, with a very small core of deep cycling convection, hot towers with overshooting tops and clearly defined low-level banding outside of the cirrus shield.
The initial position is assessed with high confidence based on a combination of the outer edges of a circulation seen in animated radar data and analysis of a very fortuitous ASCAT-B scatterometer bullseye pass.
The system has developed very quickly in a very favourable environment characterised by low (5-10 knots) wind shear, warm (29-30°C) sea surface temperatures and due to its position under an upper-level ridge axis, dual channel moderate outflow aloft.
The general synoptic steering pattern is very complex, with two lobes of a deep-layer subtropical ridge, one to the north and another to the south, along with a weak upper-level low to the northwest combining to create a weak steering pattern, resulting in a slow track generally towards the south.
Over the next 24 to 36 hours the steering pattern will change subtly with the steering ridge to the east building and pushing west with a col region developing over eastern Australia.
In response to the overall shift in the steering pattern, Kimi should track slowly south then southwestward as the ridge strengthens, and after weakening over land, the system will fall under the influence of the low level easterly flow pushing it further inland to the west of Cairns.
The system is forecast to steadily intensify over the next 24 hours under favourable environmental conditions, reaching a peak of 110 km/h (60 knots) prior to landfall north of Cairns just after 36 hours.
After landfall, the system will quickly weaken and dissipate due to terrain interaction coupled with increasing wind shear. Dynamic model guidance is unsurprisingly in very poor agreement due to very small nature of the storm structure.
The model guidance presents a range of potential scenarios from a track due south then curving northward, to a due west track into the Gulf of Carpentaria.
The JTWC forecast track is a blend of the model guidance and is based primarily on analysis of the overall synoptic trend and does not favor any individual model tracker, thus lending very low confidence to the track forecast.
In light of the highly uncertain track forecast, confidence in the intensity forecast is subsequently very low as well. However the majority of the multi-model intensity consensus suggest intensification through landfall.
Maximum significant wave height at 17/00:00 UTC is 14 feet (4.3 meters). This cancels and supersedes Ref A (wtps21 PGTW 162230).
After landfall, the system will quickly weaken and dissipate due to terrain interaction coupled with increasing wind shear. Dynamic model guidance is unsurprisingly in very poor agreement due to very small nature of the storm structure.
The model guidance presents a range of potential scenarios from a track due south then curving northward, to a due west track into the Gulf of Carpentaria.
The JTWC forecast track is a blend of the model guidance and is based primarily on analysis of the overall synoptic trend and does not favor any individual model tracker, thus lending very low confidence to the track forecast.
In light of the highly uncertain track forecast, confidence in the intensity forecast is subsequently very low as well. However the majority of the multi-model intensity consensus suggest intensification through landfall.
Maximum significant wave height at 17/00:00 UTC is 14 feet (4.3 meters).
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DelBoy on 17/01/2021(UTC)
Offline ronfishes  
#578 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 3:05:34 PM(UTC)
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2nd track map has shifted it S already

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
MTD:13.8mm
YTD:914.8mm
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DelBoy on 17/01/2021(UTC)
Offline FNQ Bunyip  
#579 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 3:28:41 PM(UTC)
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Yes it is going to be interesting.
These little ones can be fun though, just a bit of cleaning up after the event.

Yeah some nerds would be handy to watch the development with.


Cheers
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DelBoy on 17/01/2021(UTC)
Offline Weary  
#580 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 4:54:59 PM(UTC)
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Creeping further south
03B428DF-7A35-436B-8FBC-F1EE9837DC2C.png
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ronfishes on 17/01/2021(UTC), 28degrees on 17/01/2021(UTC), beej on 17/01/2021(UTC)
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