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Offline Hickory  
#1061 Posted : Monday, 16 August 2021 7:29:18 PM(UTC)
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The second last model run is still going for an early rainfall onset for the 2021–22 season across most of northern Australia.
All the runs of this model haven't varied,- so maybe they'll get this one right. The last run is on 26 August.

Quote:
Early rainfall onset likely for most of northern Australia

An early rainfall onset for the 2021–22 season is likely across most of northern Australia. Most of Queensland and the NT have a greater than 70% chance of an early rainfall onset, with parts of central and south-western Queensland having a greater than 80% likelihood. Areas of WA bordering the NT, and large parts of south-east Queensland have more than a 60% likelihood, while the remaining areas of WA have roughly equal chances of an early or late rainfall onset.
The northern rainfall onset outlook gives an indication of whether the first significant rains after the 1st September are likely to be earlier or later than median.


The Onset Date is defined as the date when at least 50 mm of rainfall has accumulated after 1 September.
Parts of coastal Queensland and the western Top End typically accumulate 50 mm by late October or early November, spreading further south and inland over following weeks.

Nthn Rainfall Onset - Small.jpg
Offline 28degrees  
#1062 Posted : Monday, 16 August 2021 8:03:52 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Hickory Go to Quoted Post
still going for an early rainfall onset for the 2021–22 season


Wishing, and hoping.

My first year here in Chillagoe, 10th August 2010 we had an absolutely impressive downpour. Went on to have some rain every 3 or 4 weeks, til it started raining properly. We still had water lying around in June 2011. Which all led me to the fanciful notion that Chillagoe was wetter than it actually is... LOL.
Offline Gone tropo  
#1063 Posted : Thursday, 19 August 2021 9:55:29 AM(UTC)
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The bureau has really butchered this year so far in terms of rainfall, if we didnt get that big wet in april the wet season would have been a fizzer and they didnt predict that until last minute. They also have said continually for last 3 months that winter was going to be drier than average yet the opposite has happened just about every station is at above average rainfall across the board some well above average. The only thing they have managed to get right is that temperatures would be above average all winter and that has been true.

I actually write down the predictions they give for rain for the month ahead and then compare to what we actually get, for the last 2 months they have said my area has a 75% chance of 10-25mm for the month yet both months have been over 90mm, this month they also said 10-25mm and im already at 61mm ........ anyway i know they have a hard job maybe we will get an early wet maybe not.
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28degrees on 30/08/2021(UTC)
Offline Hickory  
#1064 Posted : Thursday, 19 August 2021 12:13:47 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gone tropo Go to Quoted Post
The bureau has really butchered this year so far in terms of rainfall, if we didnt get that big wet in april the wet season would have been a fizzer and they didnt predict that until last minute. They also have said continually for last 3 months that winter was going to be drier than average yet the opposite has happened just about every station is at above average rainfall across the board some well above average. The only thing they have managed to get right is that temperatures would be above average all winter and that has been true.


I'm not sure that's correct. - The 78 year average (Jan-Aug 1943-2021 Average-Total) is 1656.1 mm over 114.8 days.

Jan-Aug 2021 Total so far is 2246.4 mm over 116 days, - and August isn't yet over.

For this years winter months of June,-July & August,- June had 40.6 mm,-(Avg is 46.8 mm)- - July had 54.4 mm -(Avg is 30.8 mm),- and August, so far is 16.9 mm -(Avg is 25.9 mm).
Sure, it may pour down in the next 2 weeks. But June was drier,- so far August is too.

Year to Date for 2021 is 2066.8 mm,- = 78 year Jan to Aug average is 1461.4 mm.


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28degrees on 30/08/2021(UTC)
Offline Gone tropo  
#1065 Posted : Thursday, 19 August 2021 1:49:49 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Hickory Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Gone tropo Go to Quoted Post
The bureau has really butchered this year so far in terms of rainfall, if we didnt get that big wet in april the wet season would have been a fizzer and they didnt predict that until last minute. They also have said continually for last 3 months that winter was going to be drier than average yet the opposite has happened just about every station is at above average rainfall across the board some well above average. The only thing they have managed to get right is that temperatures would be above average all winter and that has been true.


I'm not sure that's correct. - The 78 year average (Jan-Aug 1943-2021 Average-Total) is 1656.1 mm over 114.8 days.

Jan-Aug 2021 Total so far is 2246.4 mm over 116 days, - and August isn't yet over.

For this years winter months of June,-July & August,- June had 40.6 mm,-(Avg is 46.8 mm)- - July had 54.4 mm -(Avg is 30.8 mm),- and August, so far is 16.9 mm -(Avg is 25.9 mm).
Sure, it may pour down in the next 2 weeks. But June was drier,- so far August is too.

Year to Date for 2021 is 2066.8 mm,- = 78 year Jan to Aug average is 1461.4 mm.





Where are you talking about ? Cairns aero? I think you are agreeing with what i was saying? Winter on average (not just cairns aero but especially across cassowary coast stations and douglas shire stations are all above average and well above average especially around innisfail. Most stations are ahead of their yearly average some way ahead (ie tully is already over 4200mm to end of july already over yearly average)

The bureau at least for the douglas shire has forecast a 10-25mm 75% chance for each month for last 3 months yet my own reading as well as whyanbeel are in the 90mm range each month. March was a complete failure across the board with feburary not much better, january and april did the heavy lifting for the wet season. By the end of the year the majority of stations will be well well above average i would expect tully and cape tribulation to go into the 5000mm+ range
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28degrees on 30/08/2021(UTC)
Offline Hickory  
#1066 Posted : Friday, 20 August 2021 12:25:13 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gone tropo Go to Quoted Post
The bureau has really butchered this year so far in terms of rainfall, if we didnt get that big wet in april the wet season would have been a fizzer and they didnt predict that until last minute.


Yeah, I'm going off Cairns Aero data, as it has all the climate data, whereas the AWS's and the alerts around the place don't.

Just that the 2021 wet season may not have been a fizzer,- as at the end of March we'd had 1320.4 mm, with the long term average for those three months being 1261.4 mm.
(Jan - 403.2 mm -- Feb - 443.1 mm & Mar - 415.1 mm). Sure, the good rains on 19th Apr & to the months end, put it way over the 200.0 mm average, with 804.4 mm falling in total.

But things were doing better than average until then, and April could possibly have finished close to the long term average.
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28degrees on 30/08/2021(UTC)
Offline Gone tropo  
#1067 Posted : Friday, 20 August 2021 9:42:14 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Hickory Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Gone tropo Go to Quoted Post
The bureau has really butchered this year so far in terms of rainfall, if we didnt get that big wet in april the wet season would have been a fizzer and they didnt predict that until last minute.


Yeah, I'm going off Cairns Aero data, as it has all the climate data, whereas the AWS's and the alerts around the place don't.

Just that the 2021 wet season may not have been a fizzer,- as at the end of March we'd had 1320.4 mm, with the long term average for those three months being 1261.4 mm.
(Jan - 403.2 mm -- Feb - 443.1 mm & Mar - 415.1 mm). Sure, the good rains on 19th Apr & to the months end, put it way over the 200.0 mm average, with 804.4 mm falling in total.

But things were doing better than average until then, and April could possibly have finished close to the long term average.



Yeh fair call mate I was probably exaggerating it a bit calling it a fizzer. Im currently at 2600mm and would think that i should go over 3000mm by the end of the year, Bunyip looks to be set to go well into the 4000mm range but i reckon the big hit out will be between cape tribulation and tully, cape trib hasn't uploaded data for a few months but they were almost neck and neck with tully and I have been seeing them get hammered on the radar in recent months. Babinda hasn't reported since early july which i find frustrating and bizzare considering it is the ultra heavy weight for contests between towns, would think they would be eager to post their data to BOM frequently. Innisfail wharf is also punching way above its weight with around 3500mm already and another 160mm+ this month with more to come this weekend.
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28degrees on 30/08/2021(UTC)
Offline ronfishes  
#1068 Posted : Wednesday, 25 August 2021 8:54:30 PM(UTC)
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what's going on? not much it seems lol

Smoky as in Mareeba today with a few burnoffs around Davies creek, somewhere near Atherton as well I think.

Warming up a tad.
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28degrees on 30/08/2021(UTC)
Offline Gone tropo  
#1069 Posted : Thursday, 26 August 2021 9:41:37 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: ronfishes Go to Quoted Post
what's going on? not much it seems lol

Smoky as in Mareeba today with a few burnoffs around Davies creek, somewhere near Atherton as well I think.

Warming up a tad.


Another week of showers coming up according to the bureau seems to have been a cycle all winter. Few sunny days followed by a week of showers or overcast weather at least around here. Wouldn't be surprised if we end up with 90mm+ here for another month well above average.
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28degrees on 30/08/2021(UTC)
Offline ronfishes  
#1070 Posted : Monday, 30 August 2021 6:48:49 PM(UTC)
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Showers showing up on radar, even to the west. Muggy feels today at work. Some of the usual spots could score some decent totals next 24hrs or so.
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28degrees on 30/08/2021(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#1071 Posted : Monday, 30 August 2021 7:27:51 PM(UTC)
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Yesterday late afternoon, and this afternoon, looked like it "could rain but it won't". Checking radar, a few showers over to the southwest, which of course just slipped south, both days.
Offline Weary  
#1072 Posted : Monday, 30 August 2021 7:52:53 PM(UTC)
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Bloody hell. Mount Stuart (west of Townsville) has had 208 mm in 6 hours.
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28degrees on 30/08/2021(UTC)
Offline Gone tropo  
#1073 Posted : Tuesday, 31 August 2021 11:09:42 AM(UTC)
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August ended for me with a total of 88.5mm well above average, average min of 18.2 and av max of 25.5. Looks like some big totals to accrue over next 48 hours. Cairns seems to have missed most of the rain this month, usual heavy weights babinda and topaz looked to have topped the charts for the month.

Bureau have been forecasting 10-25mm for the whole month of September for my area pretty sure we will get at least that in the next 2 days.....
Offline FNQ Bunyip  
#1074 Posted : Tuesday, 31 August 2021 3:08:38 PM(UTC)
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Interesting event this one.
Some big totals south this morning, be a bloody shock getting 226mm out there any time lol
Only 18 here this morning and stuff all so far today, as It has pushed inland, I expect that to change
as the arvo moves into evening.

Cheers
Offline Gone tropo  
#1075 Posted : Tuesday, 31 August 2021 4:11:18 PM(UTC)
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Bunyip your not wrong this is very interesting ive been watching the radar all day as i do, rain falling around locations close to the base of the mountains bugger all falling along the coast. I havent been home yet but looks like ive been missing it all but whyanbeel 4km to the west looks to have been copping it all day. Same as down around innisfail totals around the coast are small at this stage let inland around menavale, japoonvale etc they are over 150mm already since 9am!!!! Be interesting to see what happens overnight but looks like some of those places just inland from innisfail are going to post massive totals.
Offline scott123  
#1076 Posted : Tuesday, 31 August 2021 4:35:05 PM(UTC)
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Weary I think that Mt Stuart reading was an error...

We had some light showers last night but it really started coming down before lunchtime...

153mm so far and the creek is up, dog is stuck at the vets and power is out..

What happened to our lovely dry season..?..it looks like a miserable wet and windy week ahead..
Offline ronfishes  
#1077 Posted : Tuesday, 31 August 2021 5:36:15 PM(UTC)
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20210203_210832.jpg

Well how's that ay.

Been wet all day with some solid downpours in Goldsborough Valley today, but as I drove into Cairns around 430pm some section of road were dry but some creeks were flowing good off the mountains.
Offline ronfishes  
#1078 Posted : Tuesday, 31 August 2021 5:38:26 PM(UTC)
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Screenshot_20210831-173058_Firefox.jpg

Wrong screenshot lol
Offline 28degrees  
#1079 Posted : Tuesday, 31 August 2021 6:55:37 PM(UTC)
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Ha ha we're getting the stormy winds, but nought else. 😁😁

Edited by user Tuesday, 31 August 2021 6:59:01 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Gone tropo  
#1080 Posted : Tuesday, 31 August 2021 8:27:10 PM(UTC)
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As I suspected by watching radar all day I have missed everything 0.25mm in the rain gauge when I got home from work and hasn’t rained a drop since yet it is still pouring everywhere but here even cairns is now getting it!!!!
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