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Offline snowbunny  
#1 Posted : Friday, 30 August 2019 12:12:17 PM(UTC)
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An interest l had many moons ago.All things that drive the weather
Might get back to
There is a long list and l am sure this list is not exhaustive
For anyone who may follow this , here are the abbreviations and their meanings
Often referred to as natural variability.


ENSO.. refers to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation

IOD..Indian ocean dipole

AAO...Antartic oscillation. or SAM..southern annular mode

PDO.....Pacific decadal oscillation

SSTs'. Sea surface temperatures

AO.. Northern hemisphere.. Arctic oscillation

NAM...Northern annular mode

PV....Polar vortex

MJO..Madden Julian Oscillation

BLOCKING index
That list is some of the major players OhMyGod




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Paul Atkins on 30/08/2019(UTC), CantSpellNarangba on 30/08/2019(UTC), Colmait on 2/09/2019(UTC)
Offline snowbunny  
#2 Posted : Friday, 30 August 2019 12:21:46 PM(UTC)
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The AAO has been doing us southerners a favor .A negative AAO. Keeps those cold fronts coming BigGrin
The forecast is a trend to negative so maybe some more good cold fronts to come?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noa..._index/aao/aao.sprd2.gif
AAO

UserPostedImage


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Paul Atkins on 30/08/2019(UTC), CantSpellNarangba on 30/08/2019(UTC)
Offline CantSpellNarangba  
#3 Posted : Friday, 30 August 2019 1:41:29 PM(UTC)
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That is awesome. Thank you for posting and for starting the new topic on it.
Helps with my quest for learning
Offline crikey  
#4 Posted : Saturday, 31 August 2019 5:44:29 PM(UTC)
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31st Aug 2019...Last day of winter

A moderate meridonal (wavy)flow of both the polar and sub polar jet. But that isn’t going to help rain enhancement as a stalled weak high pressure area over most of Australia persists this week.

jetstreams
http://www.bom.gov.au/au...chartSubmit=Refresh+View

Offline Colmait  
#5 Posted : Monday, 2 September 2019 12:28:14 PM(UTC)
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Colin Maitland.
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Offline NotCrocDundee  
#6 Posted : Monday, 2 September 2019 6:38:29 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Colmait Go to Quoted Post


Haha. What a great website. That made me chuckle.
Almost makes me want to go out a buy a dog and call it Monsoon.

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Offline CantSpellNarangba  
#7 Posted : Monday, 2 September 2019 6:47:40 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Colmait Go to Quoted Post


Thats brilliant. Thank you for sharing.



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Colmait on 2/09/2019(UTC)
Offline crikey  
#8 Posted : Tuesday, 3 September 2019 4:37:54 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Colmait Go to Quoted Post


Thanks for that link on the climate kelpies. It was a fabulous initiative. So glad the site and concept is still online.
I haven't seen a link to this site from the BOM web site. Maybe l didn't look hard enough?

I spent a bit of time looking in their yesterday and found some great stuff.

One particular article l posted on my blog. Linking the polar vortex to dry and warm conditions in NE Australia.

I thought this article was very pertinent to our current weather pattern this past autumn and winter.
A weakened polar vortex brings warm and try to the NE section of OZ..

I am going to look into this research a bit more in the coming days when time permits .
My initial thoughts were .Gee another climate kelpie ...called PV? (polar vortex)

Actually whilst trying to track the original research article source which is no longer connected. damn.
I saw some fabulous research from our own home grown Australia

I thought l might start a new thread tomorrow to highlight some of the research work that is being done on our own soil.



New understanding of the drivers behind hot and dry conditions over Australia’s north-east
Posted by BCG on 14th March 2019

http://www.climatekelpie...r-australias-north-east/



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Colmait on 3/09/2019(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#9 Posted : Tuesday, 3 September 2019 5:18:36 PM(UTC)
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Both the Artics play a very important role in our climate. One of the main players is the ocean currents both the shallow and then the very deep currents. These all rotate around the Artoc and the Antarctic.

The problem faced is salinity disrupted by too much fresh water from melting ice. There is so much to this, it is one of the main drivers that controls our weather right around the world.

https://oceanservice.noa...urrents/05conveyor1.html

http://oceanmotion.org/html/impact/conveyor.htm

Simplified version of the conveyer belt.

63FDCAF5-CA40-4328-8439-A2E9BC61247E.jpeg094D5BA5-DC69-42F2-B037-9808149C849A.gif

A little more detailed map.

49124188-11E1-4FBA-BE98-26C4355C793D.jpeg
Colin Maitland.
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Offline CantSpellNarangba  
#10 Posted : Tuesday, 3 September 2019 6:48:38 PM(UTC)
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This is all great everyone. Thank you for posting and it gives me lots of bed time reading!

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Colmait on 3/09/2019(UTC)
Offline crikey  
#11 Posted : Friday, 13 September 2019 9:25:04 AM(UTC)
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Thought l would share this with you. A post from my blog.

Quite significant for me. I wasn't aware of the correlation between PV geopotential height and AAO phase .

and that 10hpa September 2019 anomaly. I wonder how that will translate?

..............................


me notes

A very strong anomaly in geopotential height in the upper stratosphere first week of spring. Sept 2019. ??? Have to watch to see how this translates ,(re: teleconnectons) ?

An incredible correlation between vertical geopotential height and the phase of the AAO. Amazing l have never noted that before.,A light bulb moment.

When geopotential height between surface to 100 hPa is positive . The AAO index is negative.

When geopotential height between surface and 100 hPa is negative. The AAO index is positive.

Some convincing proof that the condition of the polar vortex affects our weather.

https://weathercycles.fi...e-to-sept-pv-geoht-1.jpg

PV  geoptential height vs AAO  sept 2019



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whiskyzulu2 on 13/09/2019(UTC), southawk on 14/09/2019(UTC), snowbunny on 14/09/2019(UTC), Colmait on 15/09/2019(UTC)
Offline crikey  
#12 Posted : Friday, 13 September 2019 5:55:29 PM(UTC)
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The Polar Vortex at 10hPa is extremely displaced from its sth pole position.It is not centred at all. A strengthening 10hPa anticyclone looks to be causing the displacement.

This picture snapped today 13th sept 2019.Thanks to nullschool windstreams

There are some serious warming anomalies at the 10hPa layer. Now for the what happens next?

The 200mhPa jetstream Sub polar jet continues to be weak. Contracted well south despite a neg AAO this winter and the high velocity streaks , very few..




10hPa polar vortex wind streams


jetstream 13th sept  2019
thanks 3 users thanked crikey for this useful post.
southawk on 14/09/2019(UTC), snowbunny on 14/09/2019(UTC), Colmait on 15/09/2019(UTC)
Offline crikey  
#13 Posted : Friday, 13 September 2019 7:07:37 PM(UTC)
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I had a look at the SH synoptic today because l wondered why we have had so much High pressure this past couple of weeks.
I usually pay attention..Mad
The synoptic shows there is plenty of cut offs and even a big long wave trough.
I wondered if Australia was in a region of blocking or maybe standing wave. Either way this picture suggests we have been short changed


13th sept  2019 SH synoptic.jpg

source
http://www.bom.gov.au/au...chartSubmit=Refresh+View
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southawk on 14/09/2019(UTC), snowbunny on 14/09/2019(UTC), Colmait on 15/09/2019(UTC)
Offline southawk  
#14 Posted : Saturday, 14 September 2019 7:49:43 AM(UTC)
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A little bit of homework on the SSW Polar vortex .This is a good article. Easy reading and understandable.

http://theconversation.c...utm_medium=twitterbutton
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snowbunny on 14/09/2019(UTC), Colmait on 15/09/2019(UTC)
Offline crikey  
#15 Posted : Saturday, 14 September 2019 11:33:31 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: southawk Go to Quoted Post
A little bit of homework on the SSW Polar vortex .This is a good article. Easy reading and understandable.

http://theconversation.c...utm_medium=twitterbutton


Re: the article.
I will say l was surprised they said the warming started in August 2019.

My own research notes and some other amateurs that have been following show significant disturbance to the polar vortex and stratosphere warm anomalies right back in May 2019 .

The current warming anomaly and the sheer extent is the strongest it has been so far (first week of spring). So many eyes will be watching.





SSW sept 2019

Edited by user Saturday, 14 September 2019 11:36:38 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline crikey  
#16 Posted : Thursday, 19 September 2019 6:38:10 PM(UTC)
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A positive IOD is known to be correlated with a reduction in Australian rainfall

However l have noted over the years that there are 2 parameters that can overcome the lower rainfall

One. A meridonal jetstream pattern both polar and sub polar can direct moisture down to mid latitudes regardless of the IOD phase.

Two.. A tropical dip in isobars which can draw moist N easterlies in from the coral and the sub tropical trough gives the convection.

There is an example of this in ACC g this week

T+ 150hrs forecast


25th September 2019

tropical dip in isobars for QLD sept 25 2019
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CantSpellNarangba on 22/09/2019(UTC)
Offline snowbunny  
#17 Posted : Saturday, 21 September 2019 8:01:09 PM(UTC)
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El Nino neutral and a whopping sustained negative SOI ( usually an El Nino indicator)


https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

What does this mean for our Australian weather for spring/summer?

Negative SOI means anomalous high pressure over Darwin??? Is that correct?



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CantSpellNarangba on 22/09/2019(UTC)
Offline crikey  
#18 Posted : Monday, 23 September 2019 8:36:13 AM(UTC)
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Quite a curious event underway in the NH

Some notes and pictures

Very extensive convection and high dew points going on in the Northern hemisphere atm? Not sure why? Wasn’t like that in July or August 2019
Some serious water elephants in the sky thereScared

It is as though the equatorial zone has expanded across the mid altitudes in the NH atm

A stark contrast to the lack of convection and high dew points in our own Australian region

Just wondering if 'satman' or somebody could capture a satellite image of that ?


UserPostedImage


UserPostedImage
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/au...chartSubmit=Refresh+View
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Ambient on 23/09/2019(UTC)
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