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Offline Skeetpete  
#1 Posted : Wednesday, 9 October 2019 4:11:05 PM(UTC)
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Watl has falls between 30 to 50MM fri/sat for the SE coast and eastern parts of the darling downs/granite belt.
Unfortunately this will taper off as you go further west.This will be needed as the weather is forecast to heat
up again from next WED to FRI withy temps getting into the high 30,s.
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
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Offline crikey  
#2 Posted : Wednesday, 9 October 2019 4:46:29 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Skeetpete Go to Quoted Post
Watl has falls between 30 to 50MM fri/sat for the SE coast and eastern parts of the darling downs/granite belt.
Unfortunately this will taper off as you go further west.This will be needed as the weather is forecast to heat
up again from next WED to FRI withy temps getting into the high 30,s.
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp


Thanks 'pete' for starting this thread. I am in VIC currently and finally have power again.
Here is ACC r for friday 2pm. There is another tropical dip in isobars and ACC has quite a widespread precip' signal right along the east coast. At 2pm From east Victoria , right up,as far north as 20s latitude which is near Mackay.

The signal also extends well out west of the divide. In VIC, NSW and QLD.
I have no idea if it will be a troughy mess of a widespread area of convective cells and storms

Hopefully helps the CFA and country folk.



11thoct19 trough eaztcoast OZ.jpg
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/au...harts/viewer/index.shtml
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Offline Pabloako  
#3 Posted : Wednesday, 9 October 2019 5:43:57 PM(UTC)
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Thanks for starting the new topic Pete.
This is the latest GFS for Friday. Great to see rural NSW forecasting to get some rain.

64.png

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Offline juztchillin  
#4 Posted : Wednesday, 9 October 2019 6:54:36 PM(UTC)
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METEYE giving the Gold coast some juicy rain on the weekend.


11_12th oct19 goldcoast.jpg
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Offline Skeetpete  
#5 Posted : Wednesday, 9 October 2019 7:17:52 PM(UTC)
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GFS from tropical tidbits shows the rain for fri afternoon onwards with
some falls inland

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_aus_11.png
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Offline CantSpellNarangba  
#6 Posted : Wednesday, 9 October 2019 7:26:56 PM(UTC)
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Even starting to hit the news now.

It’s been all about the heat in New South Wales and Queensland with ferocious fires destroying homes.

But a dramatic change is imminent with some of the heaviest rain for six months waiting in the wings, forecasters have warned.

Up to 100mm could sweep across the eastern seaboard with Brisbane and Sydney drenched.


https://www.news.com.au/...81c02232b7d316ee1042dc89
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Offline CantSpellNarangba  
#7 Posted : Wednesday, 9 October 2019 9:03:46 PM(UTC)
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BOM forecasts are predicting 30mm+ for Brisbane and it appears to be mostly troughy type rain with inbedded storms.

Fingers crossed we can wash the high fire danger away!

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Offline Pabloako  
#8 Posted : Thursday, 10 October 2019 8:16:52 AM(UTC)
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Great to see that most models are still forecasting the tough and rain for this weekend, although totals are still varying.

Below is a screenshot of the forecasting software I use on my website, which imports GFS data and then merges it with the historical averages from my home weather station and it creates a local forecast.

The solid red line in my local temperature, the solid blue line is dewpoint and the bar graph is forecast precipitation. All up, it is predicting around 30mm for my location.

Capture.PNG

Edited by moderator Thursday, 10 October 2019 8:18:20 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline Ken  
#9 Posted : Thursday, 10 October 2019 12:12:27 PM(UTC)
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UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage



1st and 2nd maps - The lowest and highest rainfall scenario from the 51-member EC ensemble for accumulated rainfall amounts between now and 1am Sunday (before which the bulk of the rainfall will probably have eased).
3rd map - Probabilities of accumulated rainfall exceeding 10mm between now and 1am Sunday.

Edited by user Thursday, 10 October 2019 12:13:08 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline Ken  
#10 Posted : Thursday, 10 October 2019 7:03:34 PM(UTC)
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While it's not an epic droughtbreaking rain event, it's been awhile since there was such good multimodel consensus on the vast majority of locations in our region getting at least some rainfall - see above. You'd have to be really unlucky to miss out completely. It's really more a question of amounts. The main peak in SEQ still looks like being early Saturday.
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Offline CantSpellNarangba  
#11 Posted : Friday, 11 October 2019 1:53:37 AM(UTC)
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Great stuff Ken and Pabloako for the charts and graphs. So glad we are finally going to get some widespread "wet stuff" and not just localised showers.

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Offline DelBoy  
#12 Posted : Friday, 11 October 2019 9:55:20 AM(UTC)
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There was a tiny sprinkle of rain in the night here in Cabo.

Not enough to register in my rain gauge, but the floor was damp.
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Offline Pabloako  
#13 Posted : Friday, 11 October 2019 10:16:43 AM(UTC)
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Here is an animation of how GFS thinks the next 72 hours will play out.

GFS


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Offline CantSpellNarangba  
#14 Posted : Friday, 11 October 2019 2:23:03 PM(UTC)
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Lots of thunder around this afternoon and a band of heave rain is inbound.
Love it!

IDR663.gif

Edited by user Friday, 11 October 2019 2:24:05 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline Pabloako  
#15 Posted : Friday, 11 October 2019 2:27:09 PM(UTC)
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Pelting it down here in Ocean View. The temperature has dropped to 14 degrees, it is chucking it down and wind gusting to 16kts.

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Offline Greg  
#16 Posted : Friday, 11 October 2019 3:39:44 PM(UTC)
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Some nice steady rain here at the moment. Only a couple of rumbles of thunder. Unfortunately by the look of the radar it won’t last too long. Nice start to the event though.
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Offline Tsunami  
#17 Posted : Friday, 11 October 2019 4:18:24 PM(UTC)
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Cleveland rain shield working overtime today..bugger of a thing
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Offline Tsunami  
#18 Posted : Friday, 11 October 2019 4:24:58 PM(UTC)
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Oh dear. A down grade
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Offline Ken  
#19 Posted : Friday, 11 October 2019 4:39:16 PM(UTC)
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IDQ65149 (20).png

Originally Posted by: Tsunami Go to Quoted Post
Oh dear. A down grade

Unlucky! So far at least anyway.
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Offline Falling_Droplet  
#20 Posted : Friday, 11 October 2019 6:06:30 PM(UTC)
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2 mild thunderstorms with one at lunch that was decaying and another in the mid afternoon. Automatic gauge received 0.6 mm from the first and 3.6 mm from the second from my automatic gauge.

Great to see some rain and pleased to see quite a few cells today. Hopefully we can do well with the overnight rain.
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