Yesterday, I posted about a potential for storms on Thursday and was saying it was a long way out and things change. So I will still stick with the Thursday forecast. In less than 24 hours, with the new runs of the models, things had already taken a change. Today it really looks unlikely for the storms, there is a chance but they are diminishing.

So the 1st one to look at what has happened , is the old faithful 4 day chart, in the 80’s this was about all we had to work with so we could plan a surf, dive or sail. You can see by the chart that the cold front moves off the Coast further South on Wednesday and only leaves the trough over Queensland to generate some showers or a rumbling embedded storm. Still a little bit out in regards to time with these setups. You really basically need realtime data to get a more accurate forecast.



Then the Sounding. Just the TT’s (TotalTotals), has downgraded will below the severe storm forecast and is edging towards scattered and a moderate chance of some storms. Yesterday TT’s were 51 and today they are 46. You can’t just go off TT’s but it it gives you a good idea of the potential. You have to take everything into consideration. So what do those values mean. I have posted a guide to what the Totals mean.



The sounding. The two big stand outs that immediately hit you is the lack of lower level moisture, and the cap or lid that prevents storm and the extremely low Cape or Instability ( energy in the atmosphere to fire off storms. )



Just a quick wrap up of some of the things you look at for storm potentials. This will change again over the next 2+ days. There is a small chance of maybe a storm but it shows why I haven’t posted much on here this storm season. Usually at this time of year, this would be alive with post about the potential for storm activity over several days at a time. But they are really hard to pick right now.

The last chart is the Cape and it shows the instability took a dive. As said previously, these charts would be full of colour and bullseyes.

Edited by user Tuesday, 21 October 2025 9:58:27 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Spelling etc, the usual suspects.

The storm potential today is one of those “not a classic setup once again.” We had a bit of cloud cover this morning which hampered the warming up process, but in the Pine Shire that seems to have lifted and it is quite hot and humid now. So it all comes down to the timing of the new Ridge and having those important atmospheric conditions just right to produce storms.

The weather situation currently is that there is a weak ridge that persists along the east coast, while a weak trough lingers inland. A new trough will push into the southwest today, moving eastward through Sunday and into Monday. Deeper tropical moisture is feeding into the region ahead of it, setting up for afternoon convection along and east of the trough line.

So what I did was took four soundings, the Brisbane Airport and the Moree Soundings from BoM and then added two more soundings from the GFS modelling for Brisbane and Dalby and broke all that down to try and get an idea of todays storm potential.

Bellow I have posted the four Soundings for reference.









I originally had a look at the 3 soundings as Moree was little late in loading up from BoM, and it gave a slightly different outlook.
So the latest Moree 23Z sounding added valuable context to today’s convective potential across SE Queensland and NE New South Wales.

Moree (23Z) Observed Sounding
Surface: 30.1 °C / 12.6 °C, Ps 984 hPa
LCL: ~870 hPa — indicating relatively high-based convection due to modest low-level moisture.

Instability: Lifted Index –1.4 °C, estimated CAPE ~ 700–1000 J/kg — suggesting weak to moderate instability.

Mid-Levels: Pronounced drying between 600–400 hPa enhances lapse rates, supportive of stronger downdrafts.

Winds: Light NE surface flow backing to SW aloft — weak but sufficient shear to sustain multicellular convection.

Overall: Supports isolated, high-based storms producing gusty downdrafts and dry microbursts west of the ranges.

Comparison with Brisbane and Dalby Soundings
Brisbane (23Z obs + 00Z GFS):
Deep moisture through 850–600 hPa, low LCL ~ 860 hPa, CAPE ~ 1400 J/kg.
Instability is present but somewhat capped; mid-level lapse rates are modest.
Cloud cover remains the limiting factor for surface heating.

Dalby (00Z GFS):
CAPE ~ 3200 J/kg,
Lifted Index ~ –9.8 °C — potentially volatile if heating and convergence coincide.

LCL near 840 hPa and good directional shear through 500 hPa — supporting organised, severe-capable updrafts.

What that means

A weak inland trough and developing boundary between drier inland air and coastal moisture define today’s environment.
Key Trigger: Trough boundary intersecting the seabreeze front.

Instability Gradient: Moderate over the Darling Downs increasing eastward with deeper low-level moisture.

Shear: Sufficient for multicells, possibly a few supercell-like structures if convection anchors along the trough.
Main Risks: Damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail, and local heavy falls if storms consolidate near the coast this evening.
Limiting Factors:
Persistent cloud cover reducing surface heating, weak capping near 700 hPa and inconsistent boundary-layer moisture return.

To put all that simply —
Today’s setup is a bit of a balancing act. There’s plenty of energy sitting over inland and coastal parts of SE Qld and NE NSW, but it depends on how much sunshine and surface heating we get this afternoon.

The air inland around Moree and Dalby is a little drier, which can help create gust fronts and trigger storms as it meets the humid air closer to the coast.

If those boundaries line up just right, storms could quickly flare and drift east later today.

We could expect to see isolated to scattered afternoon storms, some strong.

Main risks: damaging winds and small to locally large hail.

Activity will be very boundary-dependent — if the sun breaks through and the seabreeze meets the trough, storms could form rapidly.

It’s not a classic severe setup, but one of those “watch the sky and radar” kind of days where local factors could make all the difference.

So once again, this is my interpretation and things can and do change quickly. So keep an eye to the sky and radar and listen out for any warning if storms develop and become severe. I should add that these storms and showers may linger overnight as well and the clear out on Monday.

As I was putting this together I had a text message from the Moreton alert saying to keep an eye out for storms.

Edited by user Sunday, 26 October 2025 12:11:18 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

A blanket warning has been issued. Sorry for the way it has to be posted now. I hate the new BoM lay out. They have absolutely messed it up.

Edited by user Sunday, 26 October 2025 2:24:32 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Spelling

Thanks once again for keeping us updated Colmait.

This is the 256km Mt Stapylton radar image at 2.45pm this afternoon, taken from the old BOM website which is still maintained:





This is a link to the old BOM website for those of us who find it easier to use


Old BOM website

Just looking at how lightning active these storms are. The beauty of the Ergon Lightning tracker in the 2nd image is that you can see the storms are following a very long boundary line moving to the East which is feeding the storms. That Ridge would be a thousand or so kilometres long.

Edited by user Sunday, 26 October 2025 3:41:45 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Just finished posting and one of the cells has been labelled a VERY DANGEROUS CELL




The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 4:00 pm, a VERY DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM likely to produce damaging, locally destructive winds, large, possibly giant hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding was detected near Harrisville, Peak Crossing and Rosewood. This thunderstorm is moving towards the northeast. It is forecast to affect Brisbane CBD, Ipswich, Beenleigh and Logan Central by 4:30 pm and Cleveland, Strathpine and Redcliffe by 5:00 pm.
Other severe thunderstorms likely to produce damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding were detected near Toowoomba and the area south of Toowoomba. These thunderstorms are moving towards the east to northeast. They are forecast to affect Laidley, Gatton and the area north of Toowoomba by 4:30 pm and the area south of Esk, the area west of Kingaroy and the area northwest of Kingaroy by 5:00 pm.

That black core on the radar, that Aussie Girl posted above, showed some very strong rotation over Archerfield. Some very strong wind gusts have been recorded. The latest STW states.

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 4:40 pm, severe thunderstorms likely to produce damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding were detected near Brisbane CBD, Beenleigh, Logan Central and Kingaroy. These thunderstorms are moving towards the east to northeast. They are forecast to affect Cleveland, the area northeast of Kingaroy and mouth of the Logan River by 5:10 pm and the area southwest of Gympie, the area south of Gympie and the ranges between Gympie and Murgon by 5:40 pm.
96 km/h wind gust was recorded at Archerfield Airport at 4:34 pm.
94 km/h wind gust was recorded at Amberley RAAF at 4:13 pm.
4cm hail was reported near Ipswich at 4:10 pm.

The ABC has a very good write up about this afternoons storms.

https://www.abc.net.au/n...of-meteorology/105936082

Some of the photos courtesy of the ABC article

Beautiful shelf clouds from the supercells, the second photo looks like it is near Boondall., a massive CG just to the left hand-side of the photo.