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Offline FNQ Bunyip  
#1 Posted : Wednesday, 19 November 2025 6:03:39 AM(UTC)
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I'll kick this off as we now have T.C Fina North East of Darwin ...

I was going to give it it's own thread , but it's not very busy in here
so we can probably just have a season thread and keep them all together.

https://www.bom.gov.au/w...ecast-track-map/IDD65011
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html




Cheers
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Offline Colmait  
#2 Posted : Wednesday, 19 November 2025 7:26:18 AM(UTC)
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Thanks for kicking this thread off FNQ Bunyip.

I thought I would add the latest BoM track path and I also overlayed the JTWC with google earth. The waters are definitely warm to kick this one off nice and early.

There is not many that post on here like FHQ Bunyip said, but we definitely get a lot of traffic through which is great.


IMG_5859.jpeg

IMG_5860.jpeg

IMG_5858.jpeg
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Offline 28degrees  
#3 Posted : Wednesday, 19 November 2025 7:35:52 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: FNQ Bunyip Go to Quoted Post

I'll kick this off as we now have T.C Fina North East of Darwin ...
Cheers


Thanks Bunyip.
Pressed the wrong thread button on my phone getting into here too...

Heres this morning's track map from 04:11am. Next one at 10:30 ACST. (or is it CST? BOM can't make up it's mind.)

TC Fina 02U - 20251119 0411CST.JPG

Tropical Cyclone Fina has formed north of Darwin and is moving slowly to the east northeast away from the coast.

Area affected
Warning zone
None.

Watch zone
None.

Cancelled zone
None.

At 3:30 am Australian Central Standard Time
At 3:30 am ACST

Intensity
category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour

Location
within 35 kilometres of 9.7 degrees South, 131.6 degrees East, 315 kilometres north northeast of Darwin and 195 kilometres north northwest of Minjilang

Movement
east northeast at 9 kilometres per hour

TC Fina is expected to continue moving to the east northeast and intensify to Category 2 by Wednesday night. Later on Thursday it should turn to the south then southwest, taking it towards the Northern Territory coast for a potential impact during Friday and Saturday.

Hazards

Communities over the Northern Territory are not expected to be impacted within the next 48 hours by Tropical Cyclone Fina.


Recommended action
NTES advices for residents to follow the directions of emergency services.
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Offline 28degrees  
#4 Posted : Wednesday, 19 November 2025 8:00:52 AM(UTC)
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Here's a link to Windy, set to ECMWF.
https://www.windy.com/?-9.051,131.742,5,p:wind

And Zoom Earth
Zoom Earth | Weather Map & Hurricane Tracker https://zoom.earth/maps/...,6z/overlays=radar,fires

EDIT:

Hi Colmait. You beat me to it. 😁 Good to see you again.

Edited by user Wednesday, 19 November 2025 8:03:41 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline Colmait  
#5 Posted : Thursday, 20 November 2025 7:23:02 AM(UTC)
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Just the latest with TC FINA

Tropical Cyclone Fina is expected to turn south today towards the northern Top End coast.

Area affected
Warning zone
Cape Don to Warruwi, including Cobourg Peninsula and Minjilang.

Watch zone
The Tiwi Islands, Cape Hotham east to Maningrida, and inland including Gunbalanya.

Cancelled zone
None.

At 3:30 am Australian Central Standard Time
At 3:30 am ACST

Intensity
category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour

Location
within 45 kilometres of 9.5 degrees South, 132.9 degrees East, 395 kilometres northeast of Darwin and 190 kilometres north northeast of Minjilang

Movement
slow moving

Tropical Cyclone Fina remains a category 2 system and is slow moving. It is now expected to turn to the south today then southwest towards the northern coast of the Top End. It should approach the Cobourg Peninsula and Tiwi Islands on Friday, impacting areas over the northwest coast of the Top End of the Northern Territory. Fina is forecast to maintain category 2 intensity in coming days but an increase to category 3 at some point can't be ruled out as it nears land.

Colin Maitland.
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Offline Colmait  
#6 Posted : Friday, 21 November 2025 8:02:33 AM(UTC)
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Just the latest on TC Fina for Friday .

Tropical Cyclone Fina is slowly moving southwest, with impacts for the Northern Territory from early this morning.

Area affected
Warning zone
The Tiwi Islands, and Cape Hotham to Warruwi. This includes Cobourg Peninsula, Minjilang and Gunbalanya, and also Pirlangimpi, Milikapiti and Wurrumiyanga about the Tiwi Islands.

Watch zone
Daly River Mouth to Cape Hotham, including Dundee Beach and Darwin.

Cancelled zone
Near Maningrida.

At 3:30 am Australian Central Standard Time
At 3:30 am ACST

Intensity
category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour

Location
within 30 kilometres of 10.3 degrees South, 133.1 degrees East, 340 kilometres northeast of Darwin and 110 kilometres north northeast of Minjilang

Movement
slow moving

Tropical Cyclone Fina, currently a category 1 cyclone, is moving slowly southwest and is expected to strengthen to a category 2 system whilst tracking southwest during today. Fina is forecast to approach the Cobourg Peninsula and Tiwi Islands tonight before continuing southwest through the Van Diemen Gulf on Saturday. Fina is forecast to further intensify to a severe tropical cyclone during Sunday afternoon in the southern Timor Sea. There continues to remain a chance that it could reach category 3 intensity earlier, during late Friday or early Saturday as it moves into the Van Diemen Gulf.

IMG_5865.jpeg


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Offline Colmait  
#7 Posted : Friday, 21 November 2025 8:27:14 AM(UTC)
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I added the Water Vapour image for Western Australia along with the Short Wave and the Dvorak Imagery.

(For anyone new to this forum who may not know what Dvorak imagery is:
It’s a technique meteorologists use to estimate the strength of tropical cyclones by examining satellite cloud patterns. These patterns can show when a storm is forming, as well as how it continues to strengthen or weaken after it becomes a tropical cyclone.)

IMG_5866.jpeg


The Short Wave



IMG_5867.jpeg



Dvorak Image. Showing slight strengthening.


IMG_5868.jpeg

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Offline Colmait  
#8 Posted : Friday, 21 November 2025 11:23:06 AM(UTC)
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IMG_5869.jpeg

Image courtesy of the ABC. Also the related article concerning TC Fina.

https://www.abc.net.au/n...warning-darwin/106036168


IMG_5870.jpeg

Edited by user Friday, 21 November 2025 11:24:37 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline FNQ Bunyip  
#9 Posted : Saturday, 22 November 2025 5:54:35 AM(UTC)
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Looking at that last forecast map you posted there Col, I'd say it's pretty much spot on this morning by looking at the Radar in Darwin.
Maybe just slightly south & west of that 7am cat 2 red circle..
Looks fairly wet in Darwin on the radar, they could be in for a day or 2 of good heavy falls.


Cheers
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Offline Colmait  
#10 Posted : Saturday, 22 November 2025 10:40:24 AM(UTC)
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Just the latest from BoM with TC Fina.

IMG_5873.jpeg

Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina, Category 3, to pass just north of Darwin later today. Darwin to experience rapid increase in winds later this afternoon and evening.

Area affected
Warning zone
Daly River Mouth to Cape Don, including Tiwi Islands, Dundee Beach, Darwin, Milikapiti, Pirlangimpi and Wurrumiyanga.

Watch zone
Troughton Island to Wadeye.

Cancelled zone
None.

At 9:30 am Australian Central Standard Time
At 9:30 am ACST

Intensity
category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour

Location
within 20 kilometres of 11.8 degrees South, 131.4 degrees East, 90 kilometres northeast of Darwin and 85 kilometres east of Wurrumiyanga

Movement
west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour

Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina is moving west southwest across the Van Diemen Gulf and is expected to pass north of Darwin later today. After passing Darwin, Fina is forecast to maintain severe tropical cyclone intensity on Sunday or early Monday as it moves through the southern Timor Sea, and then start weakening during Monday or Tuesday near the Kimberley coast.

Hazards

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 185 km/h are likely along the southeastern coast of Tiwi Islands this morning, moving west during the day, with a chance of reaching Wurrumiyanga later today. Very destructive wind gusts are likely about exposed coastal sites northeast of Darwin today but the risk at Darwin Is assessed as low.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h are occurring over southeastern parts of the Tiwi Islands, and likely to extend west to southern parts of the islands, including Wurrumiyanga during the day. Destructive gusts are expected to extend to the Darwin region later today.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring over the Cobourg Peninsula, eastern parts of Melville Island and Cape Hotham to Point Stuart. Gales are expected to extend further west to include Darwin this afternoon and across the remainder of the Tiwi Islands during the day. Gales may extend southwest to Daly River Mouth overnight, and if Fina takes a more southerly track, gales Could extend south to Wadeye on Sunday.

Later Sunday or on Monday, GALES may extend to coastal parts of the north Kimberley in WA, from Kalumburu to the WA/NT Border, but not including Wyndham or Kununurra.

HEAVY to LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible along coastal areas between the Tiwi Islands and the Cobourg Peninsula, extending to coastal and adjacent inland areas across the western Top End including Darwin later today and on Sunday.

Coastal residents on the Tiwi Islands, and between Cape Hotham and Warruwi are specifically warned that tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.


Colin Maitland.
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Offline Colmait  
#11 Posted : Saturday, 22 November 2025 5:25:58 PM(UTC)
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Just the latest on TC Fina. I am glad I am not up in this area. It eill be a wild afternoon and night. Hope everyone stays safe.

IMG_5875.jpeg


Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina, Category 3, passing just north of Darwin. Winds are reaching gale-force at Darwin and to increase further in coming hours.

Area affected
Warning zone
The Tiwi Islands and Point Stuart to Wadeye. This includes Darwin, Pirlangimpi, Milikapiti, Wurrumiyanga and Wadeye.

Watch zone
From Wadeye (NT) to Troughton Island (WA) including Kalumburu (WA).

Cancelled zone
None.

At 4:30 pm Australian Central Standard Time
At 4:30 pm ACST

Intensity
category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 150 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 205 kilometres per hour

Location
within 20 kilometres of 11.9 degrees South, 130.9 degrees East, 60 kilometres north of Darwin and 40 kilometres east southeast of Wurrumiyanga

Movement
west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour

Darwin radar and satellite imagery shows Fina on the south coast of Melville Island as a very compact yet strong system. Based on Fina's forecast west southwest track, the very destructive core will to pass just north of Darwin this evening. After passing Darwin, Fina is forecast to maintain severe tropical cyclone intensity on Sunday and into Monday as it moves through the southern Timor Sea, and then start weakening during Monday or Tuesday near the Kimberley coast.

Hazards

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 205 km/h are occurring along the south coast of Melville Island, extending to Bathurst Island with a chance of reaching Wurrumiyanga this evening. Very destructive wind gusts are likely about exposed coastal sites northeast of Darwin (including Gunn Point and Cape Hotham) but the risk at Darwin is assessed as low.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h are likely to extend west over southern parts of the Tiwi islands, including Wurrumiyanga this afternoon. Destructive gusts are expected to extend to the Darwin region in the next three hours and possibly further to Dundee Beach tonight.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring over Melville Island, adjacent Bathurst Island and from Darwin northeast to Point Stuart. Gales are expected to extend further west to the remainder of the Tiwi Islands this evening. Gales may extend southwest to Dundee Beach tonight, Daly River Mouth early Sunday, and if Fina takes a more southerly track, gales could extend south to Wadeye during Sunday.

Later Sunday or on Monday, GALES may extend to coastal parts of the north Kimberley in WA, from Kalumburu to the WA/NT Border, but not including Wyndham or Kununurra.

HEAVY to LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over the Tiwi Islands and the mainland coast between Point Stuart and Dundee Beach, including Darwin, for the remainder of Saturday. The risk of HEAVY RAINFALL about coastal and adjacent inland areas will extend southwest to the Daly River Mouth overnight and on Sunday.

Coastal residents on the Tiwi Islands, and between Cape Hotham and Warruwi are specifically warned that tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

The 512K Darwin Rada and doppler

IMG_5876.jpeg

IMG_5877.jpeg
Colin Maitland.
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Offline Colmait  
#12 Posted : Saturday, 22 November 2025 5:29:54 PM(UTC)
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Offline 28degrees  
#13 Posted : Saturday, 22 November 2025 7:18:11 PM(UTC)
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Thanks Col.

The eye has just reached Gunn Point.
EDIT: Almost at Casuarina now. 7:20pm aest.

Screenshot_2025-11-22-19-15-38-11_dc00545bd3b8828f033a02ac25b2d36d.jpg

Edited by user Saturday, 22 November 2025 7:20:51 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline FNQ Bunyip  
#14 Posted : Sunday, 23 November 2025 5:59:49 AM(UTC)
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Well I'm sure it was a long slow night for the residents in and around Darwin, but with the modern
building code and plenty of warnings there should be only light damage and lots of water. Hopefully
nobody was to stupid and everyone stayed safe.
Fina has been well behaved and done exactly as forecast.
And somehow the radar has stayed on line as well.
Hope your niece is all OK 28° is this her first cyclone ?



Cheers
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Offline 28degrees  
#15 Posted : Sunday, 23 November 2025 8:14:33 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: FNQ Bunyip Go to Quoted Post

Well I'm sure it was a long slow night for the residents in and around Darwin, but with the modern
building code and plenty of warnings there should be only light damage and lots of water. Hopefully
nobody was to stupid and everyone stayed safe.
Fina has been well behaved and done exactly as forecast.
And somehow the radar has stayed on line as well.
Hope your niece is all OK 28° is this her first cyclone ?

Cheers


Haven't heard from my niece yet. The power is out almost everywhere.

The worst is over but it looks like it might still be fairly wild up there for a bit.

Minimal online reports so far. ABC has updates, but saw most video clips last night on a youtube livestream. Channel 9 had a short update. Zero mention of a cyclone in Fairfax media and Guardian an hour ago...

The NT News is on it of course.
https://www.ntnews.com.a...32427a1f6913c0eeea592768

EDIT: Niece is fine. They had 127km wind gusts and 150mm rain at Fannie Bay.

Edited by user Sunday, 23 November 2025 10:12:49 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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