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Offline Colmait  
#1 Posted : Sunday, 9 February 2020 4:55:39 PM(UTC)
Colmait

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Finally Invest 91P has become a TC known at this early stage as TC 15P
For the first few days TC 15P moves Southeast. After passing South of Vanuatu it starts to swing in a Southwest track, this is where some models are hinting a brush with the Australian Coast.

0ECD8E83-6B81-4272-ABC5-E4661638EA15.jpeg

4C5F1F17-42A5-4F3C-83DF-A5E9C50DCECC.jpeg

POSITION NEAR 15.2S 163.6E.
09FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
312 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CONVECTION
WITH FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE
LLCC FROM THE NORTH AND PAST ASCAT DATA REVEALED STRONGER (30-34 KT)
WINDS WERE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM IN MSI. SET AT 35 KTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SUPPORTED BY MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0-
2.5 BY PGTW/KNES/PHFO/NFFN/ABRF AND AN IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.
TC 15P IS EXPERIENCING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). THESE CONDITIONS CONTRIBUTE TO AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 15P IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 70 KTS BY TAU 72 AS IT
TRANSITS POLEWARD. BY TAU 96, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS IN TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. UNDER ITS INFLUENCE, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN
TO A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT FOLLOWS THE FLOW ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND DEPICTS A GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH
TAU 72. HOWEVER, TWO NOTABLE OUTLIERS, GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE, SHOW
TC 15P TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
NEAR THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT DUE TO THE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 080300).//

Edited by user Monday, 10 February 2020 4:59:15 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Official Cyclone name added

Colin Maitland.
thanks 1 user thanked Colmait for this useful post.
28degrees on 11/02/2020(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#2 Posted : Sunday, 9 February 2020 5:03:16 PM(UTC)
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One of the latest runs of a spaghetti ensemble of 15P

9DDEBD0F-C48E-40C5-8AFF-7BB18789BB31.png
Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#3 Posted : Monday, 10 February 2020 8:48:08 AM(UTC)
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Latest update on TC Uesi

092100Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 163.6E.
09FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
281 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING UNDER DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 091926Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THESE IMAGES LEND HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. SET AT 55 KTS, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 091840Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS), A SATELLITE CONSENSUS
ESTIMATE OF 52 KTS, AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0
(45 KTS, PGTW) AND T3.5 (55 KTS, KNES AND NFFN). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HEDGED ON THE HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY FIXES DUE
TO SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE
SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. TC 15P IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE LOW
(10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
ALLOW TC 15P TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80
KTS BY TAU 36. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS OVER NEW CALEDONIA. AFTER TAU 60, TC 15P WILL EXPERIENCE
DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND INCREASING (25-30 KT) VWS AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH. AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED, ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED AND THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK.
HOWEVER, THEY ARE IN POOR OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 314
NM AT TAU 72. THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACES LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z,
100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//

9B79E084-41FA-46BB-89F1-2BBE065A9074.jpeg
AB52C6A0-11CD-4386-BF1D-3D2E5998DE0D.png
89BDA99D-425D-4456-86A4-1FDFB6B13264.png
Colin Maitland.
Offline DelBoy  
#4 Posted : Monday, 10 February 2020 11:38:50 AM(UTC)
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Good stuff Colin. I have been away for a bit, but can back from holiday to cyclones!
She looks like she is starting to form up quite nicely.

QLD10-02-2020-1104.jpg
Offline Colmait  
#5 Posted : Monday, 10 February 2020 12:26:22 PM(UTC)
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Hope you had a good break Delboy.
Yeah TC Uesi is really building very nicely, conditions at the moment are perfect to create a powerful storm.
The issue with the TC is once it passes the south of Vanuatu it collides with a strong deep upper level trough and conditions are less favourable for the cyclone to maintain its strength and it is expected to weaken. The track path is even considered unreliable so we just have to keep an eye on the system and see what it does decide to do. JTWC is very good but I do like it once it reaches Australian waters, 160° East. BoM then take over and they really do an excellent job.

Edited by user Monday, 10 February 2020 12:28:02 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Speilink

Colin Maitland.
Offline DelBoy  
#6 Posted : Monday, 10 February 2020 3:36:42 PM(UTC)
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Its strange... 5 weeks ago it was all about fires and now we are looking at cyclones!
thanks 1 user thanked DelBoy for this useful post.
Colmait on 10/02/2020(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#7 Posted : Monday, 10 February 2020 5:02:18 PM(UTC)
Colmait

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Yeah Delboy, the land of Fires,floods and droughts.

BoM have taken on Uesi as it lies at 162° East.


Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea

IDQ10810

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Monday 10 February 2020
for the period until midnight EST Thursday 13 February 2020.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.
Potential Cyclones:

At 1pm AEST Monday, tropical cyclone Uesi, category 2, was located east of the Eastern Region near latitude 17.1 degrees south, longitude 162.8 degrees east, about 250km west of Vanuatu and 200km north-northwest of New Caledonia. Tropical cyclone Uesi was moving slowly south.
Tropical cyclone Uesi is expected to continue moving southward for the next 48 to 72 hours, but may turn to the southwest late in the week and enter the Eastern Region.
For more information on tropical cyclone Uesi, refer to the Fiji Meteorological Service web page at:
http://met.gov.fj

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday:Very low
Wednesday:Very low
Thursday:Moderate

There are no other significant tropical lows in the region, and none are expected to develop during the next three days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday:Very low
Wednesday:Very low
Thursday:Very low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:less than 5%Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%High:Over 50%
The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

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Colin Maitland.
Offline 28degrees  
#8 Posted : Tuesday, 11 February 2020 6:32:50 AM(UTC)
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Hi everyone, great to see some activity nearby, on this forum. Thanks for posting here. I'll be lurking & learning. :)

Offline Colmait  
#9 Posted : Tuesday, 11 February 2020 4:04:23 PM(UTC)
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The latest update on TC Uesi

110300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 162.6E.
11FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 279 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT FORMED A 10-NM RAGGED
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
EYE FEATURE, SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED FOR TILT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND A
102204Z 25KM RESOLUTION ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED
STATE. THE TC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD
AFTER TAU 24 AS THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST
BUILDS. AROUND TAU 96, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL DIG INTO AND WEAKEN THE STR RESULTING IN A MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK. OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
WITH LOW 10-15KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM 28C SST THAT WILL PROMOTE A MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK
OF 80 KNOTS AROUND TAU 24. AFTERWARD, VWS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS
THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. NEAR TAU 72, TC UESI WILL UNDERGO
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD 500MB
LOW EAST OF AUSTRALIA AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING BAROCLINICITY AND
COOLING SST VALUES (24-26C). THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 96, CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS FAIR WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASING TO 200NM AT TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z,
112100Z AND 120300Z.//
4986B50F-9BDE-45AF-ACCC-C300AF35E4D8.jpeg
62001E79-D551-4E1D-829B-10788D619F4B.jpeg

229E9822-3767-4E6F-BFC2-5DA662468C27.png
Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#10 Posted : Tuesday, 11 February 2020 4:06:46 PM(UTC)
Colmait

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BoM take on Uesi, easier to follow.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea

IDQ10810

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:36 pm EST on Tuesday 11 February 2020
for the period until midnight EST Friday 14 February 2020.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.
Potential Cyclones:

At 2pm AEST Monday, Tropical Cyclone Uesi, category 3, was located east of the Eastern Region (east of 160E) near latitude 19.4 degrees south, longitude 162.7 degrees east, about 180km northwest of New Caledonia. Tropical cyclone Uesi was moving slowly south.
Tropical cyclone Uesi is expected to continue moving south in the next 24 hours and then take a more southwestwards track from late tomorrow. On this track, it will enter the far southern parts of the Eastern Region by late week. The cyclone is expected to weaken as a tropical system or may undergo extra-tropical transition as it enters the region. Despite its tropical status, the system is likely to maintain a strong core with gale to storm force winds on its eastern quadrants with heavy rainfall as it moves closer and to the west of Lord Howe Island late Friday or on Saturday.
For more information on tropical cyclone Uesi, refer to the Fiji Meteorological Service web page at: http://met.gov.fj

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday:Very low
Thursday:Low
Friday:Moderate
Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#11 Posted : Tuesday, 11 February 2020 4:17:55 PM(UTC)
Colmait

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Originally Posted by: 28degrees Go to Quoted Post
Hi everyone, great to see some activity nearby, on this forum. Thanks for posting here. I'll be lurking & learning. :)



Yeah 28degrees it is good. After a non existent winter and a long hot dry summer it is nice to have something to talk about.

Heavy rains and a cyclone in its early days.

Cheers.
Col

Edited by user Tuesday, 11 February 2020 4:18:39 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Speilink pwoblems

Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#12 Posted : Wednesday, 12 February 2020 8:33:35 AM(UTC)
Colmait

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BoM have now put out an advice on TC Uesi

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 8:13 am EST on Wednesday 12 February 2020
Headline:
A weakening tropical cyclone Uesi is moving towards Lord Howe Island.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Lord Howe Island.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Uesi at 7:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 110 kilometres of 22.1 degrees South 162.9 degrees East, estimated to be 1120 kilometres north northeast of Lord Howe Island and 365 kilometres west of Noumea.

Movement: south at 20 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi, category 3, is located west of Noumea. The system is expected to weaken as it moves southwest towards Lord Howe Island.

Hazards:
Gales with gusts to 120 km/hr are expected to develop about Lord Howe Island on Thursday afternoon or evening.
2A36ADF7-D8D3-4923-B636-3E5B1F6A86C5.png
Below is the JTWC track path.
6E8CA72C-3FBD-40CC-B3EC-2143BD909314.gif

Edited by user Wednesday, 12 February 2020 8:37:01 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#13 Posted : Wednesday, 12 February 2020 8:39:52 AM(UTC)
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For a more comprehensive report which is basically stating why the system will weaken I have posted the JTWC remarks.

112100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 162.6E.
11FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192
NM WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED A DEEP CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT
OBSCURED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. POLEWARD ELONGATION DUE TO SHEAR
IS BECOMING APPARENT; HOWEVER, INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALSO
ENHANCED THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 111806Z GPM
37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE TC WILL NOW TRACK MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST BUILDS. AROUND TAU 48, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL DIG INTO AND WEAKEN THE STR RESULTING IN A MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE (20KTS+).
THIS, PLUS THE APPROACH OF COOL DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM.
CONCURRENTLY, NEAR TAU 48, TC UESI WILL UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD 500MB LOW EAST OF
AUSTRALIA AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING BAROCLINICITY AND COOLING SST
VALUES (24-26C). THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 72, CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERIC MODELS ARE
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.//

2EB43317-B776-40D6-B584-577FF01FC5D6.jpeg
C38661E4-874B-4EAE-9E58-10BD56C6C1BE.png
7D168439-B6C7-47AA-8652-887E9AC6A3A6.png
Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#14 Posted : Thursday, 13 February 2020 9:49:41 PM(UTC)
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Latest on Ex TC Uesi from BoM

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued at 7:36 pm EST on Thursday 13 February 2020
Headline:
Ex-tropical cyclone Uesi continues to move south-southwest and is expected to cause destructive winds at Lord Howe Island during the night.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Lord Howe Island.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Uesi at 7:00 pm AEST [8:00 pm LHDT]:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 29.6 degrees South 160.5 degrees East, estimated to be 255 kilometres north northeast of Lord Howe Island.

Movement: south southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.

Ex-tropical cyclone Uesi continues to track in a south-southwest direction towards Lord Howe Island. It is likely to pass over the island or just to its east during the early hours of Friday morning.

Although the system has lost its tropical characteristics it is still expected to maintain an intensity equivalent to a category 2 tropical cyclone as it passes the island.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts in excess of 100 km/hr are now occurring about the Lord Howe Island and are likely to continue during the night.

DESTRUCTIVE easterly winds with gusts in excess of 125 km/hr should develop within the next several hours as the centre of ex-tropical cyclone Uesi approaches the island. There may be a period of lighter winds for a few hours during the night when the centre passes over the island, followed by sudden onset of DAMAGING winds from the opposite direction.

DAMAGING SURF CONDITIONS, with waves exceeding 5 metres in the surf zone, are likely to produce significant beach erosion. The sea water level may exceed the highest tide of the year. People living in coastal areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible.

Rain areas may become heavy at times, with possible flash floods during the night or tomorrow morning.

Strong and gusty winds are likely to persist about Lord Howe Island through till Saturday morning in the wake of the system moving well to the south of the island by the evening.

Recommended Action:
The NSW State Emergency Service advise you:

- The Community and Visitors to Lord Howe Island should stay calm and remain in a secure shelter - above the expected water level during the night or while the destructive winds continue.

- Do not venture outside when winds ease as this would be the centre of the low passing over. Destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time.

- Heed the advice and follow the instructions of Police, Emergency Services personnel and local authorities.

For emergency help in floods and storms, ring the Lord Howe Island Police on [02] 6563 2199.

4590A6ED-8CC9-4FA8-9028-C0F2C62E2898.gif
C61127A4-3B3C-4C36-A09E-EA0D84CD37AC.png
Colin Maitland.
thanks 2 users thanked Colmait for this useful post.
Ambient on 14/02/2020(UTC), 28degrees on 16/02/2020(UTC)
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