Yesterday, I posted about a potential for storms on Thursday and was saying it was a long way out and things change. So I will still stick with the Thursday forecast. In less than 24 hours, with the new runs of the models, things had already taken a change. Today it really looks unlikely for the storms, there is a chance but they are diminishing.

So the 1st one to look at what has happened , is the old faithful 4 day chart, in the 80’s this was about all we had to work with so we could plan a surf, dive or sail. You can see by the chart that the cold front moves off the Coast further South on Wednesday and only leaves the trough over Queensland to generate some showers or a rumbling embedded storm. Still a little bit out in regards to time with these setups. You really basically need realtime data to get a more accurate forecast.



Then the Sounding. Just the TT’s (TotalTotals), has downgraded will below the severe storm forecast and is edging towards scattered and a moderate chance of some storms. Yesterday TT’s were 51 and today they are 46. You can’t just go off TT’s but it it gives you a good idea of the potential. You have to take everything into consideration. So what do those values mean. I have posted a guide to what the Totals mean.



The sounding. The two big stand outs that immediately hit you is the lack of lower level moisture, and the cap or lid that prevents storm and the extremely low Cape or Instability ( energy in the atmosphere to fire off storms. )



Just a quick wrap up of some of the things you look at for storm potentials. This will change again over the next 2+ days. There is a small chance of maybe a storm but it shows why I haven’t posted much on here this storm season. Usually at this time of year, this would be alive with post about the potential for storm activity over several days at a time. But they are really hard to pick right now.

The last chart is the Cape and it shows the instability took a dive. As said previously, these charts would be full of colour and bullseyes.

Edited by user Tuesday, 21 October 2025 9:58:27 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Spelling etc, the usual suspects.