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Offline beej  
#621 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 1:50:27 PM(UTC)
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I hope I've done this right this time and this link will work??

Hopefully EC have still got things way wrong for the predicted rainfall in the Ross Dam catchment area. I wouldn't imagine it would take too long to fill the dam (currently sitting on 65%) if they were to get that much in three days would it? Although GFS don't agree.

cheers

https://on.windy.com/4kb5t


Offline Dormant  
#622 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 2:19:43 PM(UTC)
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Sure looks like it, Weary.

And Scott seems to have been very lucky.

Strange, BOM seems to expect it to do an about face and L back up slightly offshore whereas JTWC has it curving inland...

Edited by user Monday, 18 January 2021 2:22:33 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline FNQ Bunyip  
#623 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 2:30:22 PM(UTC)
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lol Bom have it heading back to the start line, after this false run.

That's the way 28, my phone went nuts with all the once a year/event calls and txt ..lol



Cheers
Offline 28degrees  
#624 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 2:38:28 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: FNQ Bunyip Go to Quoted Post

lol Bom have it heading back to the start line, after this false run.

That's the way 28, my phone went nuts with all the once a year/event calls and txt ..lol

Cheers

But they're still getting fed shite. Out here I try to tell them the bliidy Featherbeds are in the way, & they still don't get it.

Offline Hickory  
#625 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 7:07:45 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Weary Go to Quoted Post
At least JTWC are honest enough to say they have NFI where it’s going

. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND FLUIDITY IN
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.


That's for sure.

Just before lunchtime they had it hooking a 90° turn when abeam Cardwell, and heading west / nth west.

Seems that Kimi is off on a sunday drive, just pleasing itself. Confused

Edited by user Monday, 18 January 2021 7:13:13 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

thanks 1 user thanked Hickory for this useful post.
monkeybusiness on 18/01/2021(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#626 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 7:27:53 PM(UTC)
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Kimi is certainly entertaining... Lol. Can't you see her coming back up the coast, reforming in the Coral Sea, & running across the Cape.
thanks 1 user thanked 28degrees for this useful post.
monkeybusiness on 18/01/2021(UTC)
Offline Weary  
#627 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 7:34:56 PM(UTC)
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Loving the JTWC remarks, who knew that disagreement in the numerical models was a “squashed spider” and that “low confidence” meant high uncertainty.

WITH RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING AN EASTWARD TURN. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT (SO CALLED SQUASHED SPIDER)
BUT REFLECTS A GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH AN EQUATORWARD TRACK
CHANGE BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
(WITH COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR) IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND
STEER IT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72.
DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING INFLUENCES AND POOR MODEL
AGREEMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK
thanks 2 users thanked Weary for this useful post.
monkeybusiness on 18/01/2021(UTC), Pabloako on 18/01/2021(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#628 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 8:06:21 PM(UTC)
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Ho hum...🙄

Wonder how they get squashed spider. I know I'm a bit slow sometimes. Lol.😁
Offline 28degrees  
#629 Posted : Tuesday, 19 January 2021 7:05:55 AM(UTC)
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Good morning all.

Looking at Bowen radar this morning out girl has almost disappeared. Now she's a tropical low, likely to head back north again.

Another nice grey day again, probably to become quite muggy.

Haven't looked at the gauge, but be lucky if there's 1mm. 😁
Offline Weary  
#630 Posted : Tuesday, 19 January 2021 7:44:30 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: 28degrees Go to Quoted Post
Ho hum...🙄

Wonder how they get squashed spider. I know I'm a bit slow sometimes. Lol.😁


I think it’s cos the models are all saying different directions of movement, so if you show it graphically you get a blob with lots of “legs” sticking out in all directions.BigGrin BigGrin

Offline 28degrees  
#631 Posted : Tuesday, 19 January 2021 7:46:17 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Weary Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: 28degrees Go to Quoted Post
Ho hum...🙄

Wonder how they get squashed spider. I know I'm a bit slow sometimes. Lol.😁


I think it’s cos the models are all saying different directions of movement, so if you show it graphically you get a blob with lots of “legs” sticking out in all directions.BigGrin BigGrin



That sounds about right. Lol.
Offline scott123  
#632 Posted : Tuesday, 19 January 2021 8:59:24 AM(UTC)
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Hmm..squashed spider huh..?

I'd think that would have to go down as one of the worst cyclone forecasting events I have ever seen...

Why do they bother with track maps at all if they have NFI..?

Edited by user Tuesday, 19 January 2021 9:45:31 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline @_yassified_shak  
#633 Posted : Tuesday, 19 January 2021 10:18:01 AM(UTC)
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We have been running blind since Thursday, NBN box decided it wanted to shat itself, so no phone nor internet since then. we are with spintel and i can say they are much better than telstra! rang once to inform them, then contacted them again yesterday, just to confirm when they were coming, was told they would be here between 8am-12 today. he was here slightly after 8 am this morning. Not much fun trying to stand in in the back paddock like the statue of Liberty with a mobile and an umbrella LOL

Anyway, the sun has come out this morning, but apparently that is not going to last, and the rain will be back by tomorrow or Thursday 1175mm For Jan so far. Needs a few week of dr weather now so everything can dry out and de mould.
Offline ronfishes  
#634 Posted : Tuesday, 19 January 2021 8:42:58 PM(UTC)
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Lost my NBN modem/router in a storm Saturday week ago. Missus said she heard the lightning go bang and then something went 'pop'! (I was out fishing with the young fella, who incidentally caught his first legal red emperor along with his PB coral trout - but I digress..)

Anyway I went and bought a cheap modem on Sunday but couldn't for the life of me get it hooked up to Telstra. Telstra were beyond useless as it wasn't a telstra modem and the Mumbai bots had NFI

Anyway, new one turned up today and away it went!.

Very muggy when I got home this arvo, some drops were falling out of the thinnest of clouds.. Didn't amount to much.
MTD:13.8mm
YTD:914.8mm
Offline 28degrees  
#635 Posted : Tuesday, 19 January 2021 9:02:36 PM(UTC)
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Very muggy here for a while too, then a small passing cell dropped 10mm on us.
Offline ronfishes  
#636 Posted : Wednesday, 20 January 2021 5:29:35 AM(UTC)
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Remnants of Kimo sitting near Arlington, producing a nice storm on the SW side atm
MTD:13.8mm
YTD:914.8mm
Offline 28degrees  
#637 Posted : Wednesday, 20 January 2021 6:52:02 AM(UTC)
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Good morning everyone 😊

Originally Posted by: ronfishes Go to Quoted Post
Remnants of Kimo sitting near Arlington, producing a nice storm on the SW side atm


There was a bit of lightning in it about 4am, too far away for thunder.

10mm in gauge from a shower about 4pm yesterday.

I swear looking at the radar I can still see the rotation and the centre, but it doesn't show on EarthWind or Windy.

Edited by user Wednesday, 20 January 2021 6:52:48 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Weary  
#638 Posted : Wednesday, 20 January 2021 7:05:57 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: 28degrees Go to Quoted Post
Good morning everyone 😊

Originally Posted by: ronfishes Go to Quoted Post
Remnants of Kimo sitting near Arlington, producing a nice storm on the SW side atm


There was a bit of lightning in it about 4am, too far away for thunder.

10mm in gauge from a shower about 4pm yesterday.

I swear looking at the radar I can still see the rotation and the centre, but it doesn't show on EarthWind or Windy.


Ex Kimi seems to wobbling around with no sense of direction.

Offline FNQ Bunyip  
#639 Posted : Wednesday, 20 January 2021 7:08:07 AM(UTC)
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Oh it's there 28 don't you worry.
Yes the lights looked good from around 03:00, no thunder here either just the flashes reflecting on the sky.

Only 4mm here this morning, but it is raining lightly now.

It's a good morning as I caught up with a boar that has been giving me the slip for a few days.

Cheers
Offline 28degrees  
#640 Posted : Wednesday, 20 January 2021 11:29:22 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Weary Go to Quoted Post
Ex Kimi seems to wobbling around with no sense of direction.

She seems to be steadily heading north, at a fair speed.

Originally Posted by: FNQ Bunyip Go to Quoted Post
Oh it's there 28 don't you worry.
Yes the lights looked good from around 03:00, no thunder here either just the flashes reflecting on the sky.

Only 4mm here this morning, but it is raining lightly now.

It's a good morning as I caught up with a boar that has been giving me the slip for a few days.

Cheers


Still see the rotation.
Blob to the west now all but disappeared. Still overcast & cool. Nice temperature. Hasn't got muggy, yet.

Can you eat the boar, or is it dog food only? Local used to hunt with mates at night. Said they came across a big herd in the dark he thought were cattle at first. We must have zillions of the things here in the north.
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