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Offline scott123  
#601 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 9:45:51 PM(UTC)
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Its still the weekend..

BOM guys are probably on the beers at a Cyclone party and deciding the track track by playing pin the tail on the Donkey..Blink

I think we all know it going to cross in Cyclone alley between Innisfail and Cardwell...
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28degrees on 17/01/2021(UTC)
Offline Dormant  
#602 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 9:55:15 PM(UTC)
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I dunno, Scott, looking at the rotation, if that's the eye it's shifted SW quite a bit. Our way.
Offline scott123  
#603 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 10:13:08 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Dormant Go to Quoted Post
I dunno, Scott, looking at the rotation, if that's the eye it's shifted SW quite a bit. Our way.


Yeah maybe Dormant, I guess we will will get a better idea in the coming hours..

I just hope the bloody thing doesnt get any stronger..

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28degrees on 17/01/2021(UTC)
Offline beej  
#604 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 10:15:33 PM(UTC)
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Yeah, just lookin at that Dormant. Just starting to show the best excuse for an eye too! Not a breadth of wind here at present.

Sorry 28, my records at least (since 2012) we've averaged 1900 mm here, but last year dropped kicked it in the guts a bit! 700 mm below average. But not sure what the average is for the area. Locals tell us we live in the "wet" end of Julatten. (Northern side of Bushy Creek).
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28degrees on 17/01/2021(UTC)
Offline scott123  
#605 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 11:10:10 PM(UTC)
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You were right Dormant..

A definite SW movement from the last track to the present one just released.....

Wonder if that trend will continue..?

Edited by user Sunday, 17 January 2021 11:11:00 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Dormant  
#606 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 2:02:54 AM(UTC)
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Nope, now south it is, (for awhile, I spose).

With a bit of luck Scott, due south means parallel to coast, cooeee Townsville, had enough rain lately?
Offline Dormant  
#607 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 2:09:42 AM(UTC)
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Replying to self... looks a tiny bit easterly of south, and since it fades to drizzle upon landing maybe, just maybe Scott, you might just get outer band at most. We're getting just drizzle, no wind, thankfully, but then it's now opposite us.

Edited by user Monday, 18 January 2021 2:12:00 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline scott123  
#608 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 2:14:36 AM(UTC)
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Latest track map shows Mission beach, Dormant...

I cant say I'm surprised ..I sure hope it does keep cruising south though..

I just got back inside from harvesting a couple of hundred plant propogations that i have orders for..

I was growing them semi-wild in the little creek beside our shack and was planning on pulling them up and potting over the next couple of days....

However if we get any flood rain overnight they likely would have ended up out in the ocean...

Life's rarely boring out here..

Edited by user Monday, 18 January 2021 2:23:06 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Hickory  
#609 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 2:53:47 AM(UTC)
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The rotation seems to be on Norman Reef right now,-( 02:50 hours), which is nowhere
near the position BoM have it plotted.

Maybe they're all on the turps.
Offline 28degrees  
#610 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 6:42:41 AM(UTC)
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JTWC notice 4 now has it crossing just south of Ingham, over Palm & Orpheus Islands.

Edited by user Monday, 18 January 2021 6:47:29 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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beej on 18/01/2021(UTC)
Offline Weary  
#611 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 6:56:23 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Weary Go to Quoted Post
Cardwell is looking good for a crossing the way things are changing atm


I was only half serious when I said Cardwell yesterday.....🤔🤔🤪🤪

Offline FNQ Bunyip  
#612 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 7:05:24 AM(UTC)
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Cool Cool

Well just 21mm up here this morning Mad
So much hype for so little.

So what happened to the SEWS?? Had the radio on and had all the updates but no siren ??
And the Bom say not to use it on their bulletins.


Cheers
Offline Weary  
#613 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 7:16:53 AM(UTC)
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At least JTWC are honest enough to say they have NFI where it’s going

. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND FLUIDITY IN
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.
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beej on 18/01/2021(UTC), DelBoy on 18/01/2021(UTC)
Offline Dormant  
#614 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 9:55:50 AM(UTC)
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Not a lot of inflo but a fine straight course offshore.

Time to plant potatoes in your sandbags if you bothered with them.
Offline scott123  
#615 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 10:12:21 AM(UTC)
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God how I hate newspapers and journalists of today....

Daily mail headline this morning..


"Urgent warning as TWO huge cyclones circle Australia."

Offline FNQ Bunyip  
#616 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 10:16:54 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: scott123 Go to Quoted Post
God how I hate newspapers and journalists of today....




100% with you there Scott.
I don't think there are any real journalists any more.
They are all just attention seeking loud mouth fools.


Cheers
Offline Hickory  
#617 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 10:16:59 AM(UTC)
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This little system seems to have moved way quicker than they predicted.

A few hours ago, it was where the earlier track maps had it at about 16:00h this arvo. Such a small system in a hurry.
Not a leaf moving, even at the tops of my 80 foot melaleuca trees. Weird.

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DelBoy on 18/01/2021(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#618 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 10:50:55 AM(UTC)
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I got in first Scott. I texted people advising the cyclone, and said not to worry about the coming media beatup.

No journalists any more, Bunyip, except those old "retired" ones in their 70+s or so, and they're all dying off. What we have these days are repeaters, not even reporters.

So where's the second cyclone? Joshua's been gone for a few days...
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DelBoy on 18/01/2021(UTC)
Offline Weary  
#619 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 10:53:01 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Hickory Go to Quoted Post
This little system seems to have moved way quicker than they predicted.

A few hours ago, it was where the earlier track maps had it at about 16:00h this arvo. Such a small system in a hurry.
Not a leaf moving, even at the tops of my 80 foot melaleuca trees. Weird.



Reckon you are right about the speed, might mean that Townsville is in the firing line?

Edited by user Monday, 18 January 2021 10:54:34 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Weary  
#620 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 12:40:41 PM(UTC)
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JTWC now have it hitting Townsville dead centre

https://www.metoc.navy.m...jtwc/products/sh1121.gif

Edited by user Monday, 18 January 2021 12:41:43 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

thanks 2 users thanked Weary for this useful post.
DelBoy on 18/01/2021(UTC), beej on 18/01/2021(UTC)
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