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Offline FNQ Bunyip  
#1 Posted : Thursday, 23 December 2021 11:34:38 AM(UTC)
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Well it's pretty quiet around here but I'll open this up as it's time our season got going.
No discussion on here when Ruby formed and moved off as expected, and pulled the nice early wet stuff
we were getting away with her.

I have been hearing a few suggestions that things are going to fire up in the gulf soon.

So any forecasts/predictions of possible systems or impact zones. Wild or mild just for a bit of
discussion.
I'll go with a mid March crossing the coast Between Cairns and Cardwell. Blink
And a late April Blink going down the inland and out over Sunshine coast, flooding most of Queensland
and Brisbane again.



Cheers
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28degrees on 23/12/2021(UTC), monkeybusiness on 29/12/2021(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#2 Posted : Thursday, 23 December 2021 7:54:52 PM(UTC)
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Being old and cynical, I'll go with the April option...
Offline FNQ Bunyip  
#3 Posted : Saturday, 1 January 2022 8:19:27 AM(UTC)
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Well Seth formed and is already impacting beaches with bigger seas.
You lot down south may get a bit of action. Enjoy.


Cheers
Offline FNQ Bunyip  
#4 Posted : Sunday, 2 January 2022 11:48:53 AM(UTC)
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Cyclone Seth is still a long way out, but has now closed a few beaches with big seas.

Looks like the days of forums are albut over, no interest here at all with a cyclone of the coast of Brisbane. :(
Thought there would be a bit of discussion.


Cheers
Offline 28degrees  
#5 Posted : Sunday, 2 January 2022 1:05:00 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: FNQ Bunyip Go to Quoted Post
Looks like the days of forums are albut over


Seems to be that way. Every now and then I check out others but can't find familiar names, and some are extremely quiet. They really did some "book burning" when they shut down the Weatherzone forum.
Offline FNQ Bunyip  
#6 Posted : Monday, 3 January 2022 7:39:30 AM(UTC)
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They sure did kill off the online weather community, a real shame :(

Ex Seth is still causing big seas on the coast.



Cheers
Offline youcantbecirrus  
#7 Posted : Monday, 3 January 2022 2:48:08 PM(UTC)
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You're right there. Had great discussions about weather and I personally learnt a lot through those weatherzone forums. Theres more activity on the ski.com cyclone thread. But I only recognise a couple of familiar faces Crying
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28degrees on 3/01/2022(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#8 Posted : Monday, 3 January 2022 3:16:32 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: youcantbecirrus Go to Quoted Post
You're right there. Had great discussions about weather and I personally learnt a lot through those weatherzone forums. Theres more activity on the ski.com cyclone thread. But I only recognise a couple of familiar faces Crying


Feels kinda weird to go looking for cyclones on a forum called "ski".

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monkeybusiness on 4/01/2022(UTC)
Offline FNQ Bunyip  
#9 Posted : Tuesday, 4 January 2022 6:40:40 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: youcantbecirrus Go to Quoted Post
Had great discussions about weather and I personally learnt a lot through those weatherzone forums. Crying



That is the bit that is the hardest, we had so many knowledgeable people that were prepared to share how and whys. Now they are all scattered across the internet with no central spot. Angry

Yes I agree 28, cyclones and ski just don't seem like they belong together LOL


Early models are showing a system off our NTC next week, something to watch for now.




Cheers
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monkeybusiness on 4/01/2022(UTC), 28degrees on 8/01/2022(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#10 Posted : Tuesday, 4 January 2022 8:00:21 AM(UTC)
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It was shameful to destroy a forum like that. It's been gone 2-3 years ago now, but still can get a bit angry at times when I think of the amount of knowledge lost. It's like burning an expensive encyclopaedia.
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monkeybusiness on 4/01/2022(UTC)
Offline ronfishes  
#11 Posted : Saturday, 8 January 2022 1:01:00 PM(UTC)
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Totally agree with you guys, real shame.

It's not often the BoM put out the cyclone outlook at 0930.


Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea

IDQ10810
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 9:35 am EST on Saturday 8 January 2022
for the period until midnight EST Monday 10 January 2022.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A low is expected to form today in the northern Coral Sea off the far north Queensland coast and initially move to the southeast away from the coast. During Sunday the low is likely to turn to the west towards the coast and approach Cape York Peninsula on Monday. It is now rated a moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone before it makes landfall to the north of Cooktown, at this stage later Monday or on Tuesday before subsequently moving to the west southwest over land.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday:
Very Low
Sunday:
Low
Monday:
Moderate
MTD: 113mm
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monkeybusiness on 8/01/2022(UTC), 28degrees on 8/01/2022(UTC)
Offline ronfishes  
#12 Posted : Saturday, 8 January 2022 2:39:21 PM(UTC)
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And the PM outlook is out:

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea

IDQ10810
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:35 pm EST on Saturday 8 January 2022
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 11 January 2022.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A low is forming today in the northern Coral Sea, about 400km northeast of Cooktown. Although it forecast to initially move to the southeast away from the coast, it is expected to turn to the west on Sunday towards the coast and approach Cape York Peninsula on Monday. It may develop into a tropical cyclone before making landfall to the north of Cooktown, by Tuesday before subsequently moving to the west southwest over land.

Please refer to further tropical cyclone information for updates available at: www.bom.gov.au/cyclone.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday:
Low
Monday:
Moderate
Tuesday:
High
MTD: 113mm
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28degrees on 8/01/2022(UTC)
Offline FNQ Bunyip  
#13 Posted : Saturday, 8 January 2022 5:04:44 PM(UTC)
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Yeah Ron I saw that early outlook and wondered if they were getting a little excited :)

Looking forward to some rain, something has to give soon.


Yeah 28 they burned the whole library, shameful that some faceless button pusher can just do that with no accountability.




Cheers

EDIT to add now have a cyclone watch.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 4:35 pm EST on Saturday 8 January 2022

Headline:
Cyclone Watch declared for far north Queensland for a developing tropical low in the northern Coral Sea.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Cape Grenville to Cape Tribulation, including Cooktown.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm AEST [3:30 pm ACST]:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 85 kilometres of 12.8 degrees South 147.8 degrees East, estimated to be 405 kilometres northeast of Cooktown and 515 kilometres east northeast of Coen.

Movement: south southeast at 11 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is currently moving slowly southeast in the northern Coral Sea. It is expected to start moving to the west on Sunday, possibly crossing the far north Queensland coast later on Monday or Tuesday between Cooktown and Lockhart River. There is a chance it develops into a tropical cyclone before reaching the coast.

The tropical low is expected to continue moving west into the Gulf of Carpentaria on Tuesday or Wednesday where is likely to quickly strengthen.



Cheers

Edited by user Saturday, 8 January 2022 5:09:34 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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28degrees on 8/01/2022(UTC), monkeybusiness on 9/01/2022(UTC)
Offline ronfishes  
#14 Posted : Sunday, 9 January 2022 6:01:23 PM(UTC)
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Forecast map for tropical cyclone Tiffany:

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
MTD: 113mm
Offline 28degrees  
#15 Posted : Sunday, 9 January 2022 8:41:53 PM(UTC)
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Some nice evening skies. Not holding my breath for the rain.

The mock oranges have finally bloomed today. But they've been known to get confused out here.
Offline crikey  
#16 Posted : Monday, 24 January 2022 3:51:43 PM(UTC)
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Sorry too the weather chat community has waned.
Kudos to you guys keeping things going here.

We are thinking of travelling up east coast now the borders are open. Thought l better check the weather.
Access winds
A coral sea tropical low forms this week. The southern flank sending stronger winds to the mid and southern Queensland coast.
Might be good for the surfers

The low in WA currently looks more interesting as it traverses eastward inland with intensification drawing moisture into central Australia. More flooding there perhaps.
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ronfishes on 24/01/2022(UTC)
Offline crikey  
#17 Posted : Tuesday, 25 January 2022 3:07:13 PM(UTC)
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Access has a tropical low connected to the monsoon trough developing this week.
However it develops over land in WA. Hovers between the WA and NT border and the coast between port Hedland and Broome.
Of interest is that by next Saturday the monsoon low gathers enough form and momentum to be a CAT 1 at least. Although it won’t be named unless it pushes out to water. He has his toes in the water next Saturday.
This will be interesting. A cyclone forming from land and moving out to sea perhaps. It appears to be fed by copious amounts of water from the monsoon streams.
Reference
http://www.bom.gov.au/au...chartSubmit=Refresh+View
Offline FNQ Bunyip  
#18 Posted : Tuesday, 25 January 2022 3:52:36 PM(UTC)
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Good to be hopeful Crikey, but as you know we have all seen these pretty pictures before that turn into nothing.
The MJO stalled out and has a long way to go to bring influance back to our regions as well, so who knows.

One thing for sure is that inland areas are getting their best rain in many many years.


Cheers
Offline crikey  
#19 Posted : Wednesday, 26 January 2022 11:28:52 AM(UTC)
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Hi bunyip and all of you up Nth Qld.
ABC talking up the active monsoon they’re expecting something but won’t say what , where or when.
Access still interested in an inland tropical low in WA but a bit later around Monday.

The BOM , EC model 4 day synoptic not in line with Access

You guys might be interested in Access suggesting a coral sea tropical low will form off the nth Qld coast next Monday.

Any other modeling suggesting possible tropical cyclone development?
( l don’t follow other models. One is enough for my purposes)


http://www.bom.gov.au/au...harts/viewer/index.shtml
Offline 28degrees  
#20 Posted : Wednesday, 26 January 2022 3:40:07 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: crikey Go to Quoted Post
Hi bunyip and all of you up Nth Qld.


Hiya back from me. Noticed you over in the cyclone thread. I'm a lurker.

I keep on eye on the Vanuatu met-bureau, and can sometimes pick them. (Yeah, real scientific...)
Latest Vanuatu Group Chart
http://www.vmgd.gov.vu/v...test-vanuatu-group-chart

I've been a bit lazy about checking other places, aside from my standard few.

Edited by user Wednesday, 26 January 2022 3:42:47 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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