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Offline Colmait  
#2601 Posted : Friday, 29 December 2023 9:46:54 AM(UTC)
Colmait

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We are in for another hot day. The overnight apparent or feel like temperature never dropped below 28°C here at Lawnton.

Just running through the possibilities for tomorrow and it is not a clear cut storm day as we have seen but there is still the high chance of severe storms.

There is a couple of possibilities.

1 is that early morning showers arrive and we have thundery rain with the possibility of a severe embedded storm.

2. Or it is just thundery rain.

3 storms arrive mid morning early afternoon.

4 showers in the morning, clearing away, allowing the heating to build and storms arrive.

All the ingredients are there for potentially big storms with heavy rain, large hail and strong winds.
With the storms I would prefer to see the later models and if there is a slight change plus the sounding.
Below is the GFS instability charts with the cape and LI’s

IMG_3289.jpeg

IMG_3292.jpeg

IMG_3291.jpeg

IMG_3293.png

Edited by user Friday, 29 December 2023 9:47:38 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#2602 Posted : Friday, 29 December 2023 2:01:38 PM(UTC)
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Very hot and dry. Just not enough to nearly no moisture to have a chance of relief today/ tonight.
As for tomorrow, storms look set to hit mid morning, I just had a look at a few updated runs. Could be severe in many areas. (TT,s sitting at 53 so pretty widespread and severe. )

Todays heat and dry slot can be seen from the Brisbane”s Airport sounding this morning.

IMG_3297.jpeg

Doppler showing a little bit about of moisture around the radar at Marburg as at 13:55 but not enough to feed any storms.

IMG_3298.jpeg


Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#2603 Posted : Friday, 29 December 2023 3:12:21 PM(UTC)
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I have been keeping an eye on the radar and this front moving through over the boarder. Stanthorpe and some border regions might get some of it. Interesting to see how far it can reach into SEQLD. Definitely a few storms for NE NSW.


IMG_3300.jpeg

IMG_3299.jpeg

Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#2604 Posted : Saturday, 30 December 2023 7:23:08 AM(UTC)
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What a hot night. At our place the feel like temperature never fell below 30°C.At one point it reached 33°C for the feel like temperature.

As for storms, although there is some cloud about storms are already firing from Goondiwindi, Stanthorpe, and west of Toowoomba .

Below is the Satellite imagery showing the lightning and storms.m

IMG_3304.jpeg

Edited by user Saturday, 30 December 2023 7:25:23 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#2605 Posted : Saturday, 30 December 2023 7:50:27 AM(UTC)
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STW out

IMG_3305.jpeg

Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#2606 Posted : Saturday, 30 December 2023 8:44:00 AM(UTC)
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Updated STW and image 1 is a blanket warning.


IMG_3307.jpeg

IMG_3306.jpeg

Edited by user Saturday, 30 December 2023 8:44:37 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#2607 Posted : Saturday, 30 December 2023 8:48:08 AM(UTC)
Colmait

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You can see how lightning active these storms are.
Below is the Energex lightning tracker

IMG_3308.jpeg
Colin Maitland.
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SE QLD and NE NSW - Day to day Weather 2024 (SEQ and NE NSW)
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