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Offline Aussie Girl  
#201 Posted : Friday, 9 August 2024 3:42:50 PM(UTC)
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According to the latest BOM forecast for the Brisbane area we may see some heavy rainfalls in the coming days, especially on Monday and Tuesday next week.

A flood watch warning was issued by BOM this afternoon for some of the South East Qld catchment areas:



Initial Flood Watch for the South East Queensland Coastal Catchments

Issued at 2:39 pm EST on Friday 9 August 2024

Flood Watch Number: 1

ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLOOD WATCH AREA FROM MONDAY

A coastal trough is expected to develop along the northern NSW and Southern QLD coast from Sunday. This trough is likely to deepen along the coast from Monday into Tuesday with heavy rainfall increasing. A low pressure system may develop on the trough on Tuesday.

Catchments within the Flood Watch Area are moderately dry.

Rainfall will increase about northern Queensland later on Sunday and is expected to move south and intensify from Monday into Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is forecast over the Flood Watch Area from Monday until Wednesday morning.

There is a significant uncertainty in the timing and location of the rainfall, although the coast and adjacent ranges are most likely to see the heaviest falls.

Localised river level rises and flash flooding are likely within the areas of heaviest rainfall, with isolated minor to moderate riverine flooding possible.

Due to the localised nature of the heavier falls, at this stage it is not possible to be more specific about the areas of highest flood risk.

Flooding may result in disruption to transport routes and isolation of some communities.

Catchments likely to be affected include:
Mary River

Noosa River

Sunshine Coast Rivers and Creeks

Pine and Caboolture Rivers

Upper Brisbane River

Lower Brisbane River
(Specifically the Bremer River and Lockyer, Laidley and Warrill Creeks)

Logan and Albert Rivers

Gold Coast Rivers and Creeks


See www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings to view the current flood, weather and cyclone products for Queensland.




It will be nice to have some rain again as the ground is really starting to dry out, but it is lousy timing, happening at the same time as the Ekka.


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Colmait on 9/08/2024(UTC), FNQ Bunyip on 10/08/2024(UTC)
Offline Aussie Girl  
#202 Posted : Monday, 12 August 2024 12:57:44 PM(UTC)
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Starting to get some heavier rain now. This is the BOM 128km Mt Stapylton radar image as at 12.50pm this afternoon.


12.8.24 12.50 pm.JPG


An updated flood watch has been issued by BOM at 12.20pm this afternoon for Coastal Catchments from Sarina to Tweed Heads:

Flood Watch for Coastal Catchments from Sarina to Tweed Heads

Issued at 12:20 pm EST on Monday 12 August 2024

Flood Watch Number: 4

ISOLATED MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLOOD WATCH AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY

A rain band extends over eastern and central Queensland. An upper trough extends over Queensland enhancing showers and thunderstorms. The upper trough will move south down the east coast from today, moving offshore late on Wednesday. A surface trough is forecast to develop near the central Queensland coast from today, most likely between Carmila and Hervey Bay, and will enhance rainfall, winds, and seas in its vicinity. The coastal trough will weaken from Thursday.

Catchments within the Flood Watch Area are moderately dry but beginning to wet up after rainfall in coastal areas over the last few days.

Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Flood Watch Area from the remainder of Monday until Wednesday, easing on Thursday.

Significant uncertainty still remains in the timing and location of the rainfall, although the coast and adjacent ranges are most likely to see the heaviest falls.

Localised river level rises and flash flooding are likely within the areas of heaviest rainfall, with isolated minor to moderate riverine flooding possible.

Due to the localised nature of the heavier falls, at this stage it is not possible to be more specific about the areas of highest flood risk.

Flooding may result in disruption to transport routes and isolation of some communities.

Catchments likely to be affected include:
Connors, Isaac and Styx Rivers and Plane Creek

Mackenzie and Fitzroy Rivers and Shoalwater and Water Park Creeks
(Riverine flooding not expected in Fitzroy or Mackenzie Rivers at this stage)

Calliope River

Boyne River

Baffle Creek

Kolan River

Burnett River

Burrum and Cherwell Rivers

Mary River

Noosa River

Sunshine Coast Rivers and Creeks

Pine and Caboolture Rivers

Upper Brisbane River

Lower Brisbane River
(including the Bremer River and Lockyer, Laidley and Warrill Creeks, excluding the lower Brisbane River itself)

Logan and Albert Rivers

Gold Coast Rivers and Creeks


See www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings to view the current flood, weather and cyclone products for Queensland.
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Colmait on 14/08/2024(UTC)
Offline Aussie Girl  
#203 Posted : Tuesday, 13 August 2024 3:43:02 PM(UTC)
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Plenty of rain around the south east now. This is the BOM's Mt Stapylton 512km radar image at 3.31pm this afternoon:


Radar 13.8.24.JPG


BOM has issued a number of current warnings for this rain event, including flood warnings, marine wind warning, hazardous surf warning and a coastal hazard warning.

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Colmait on 14/08/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#204 Posted : Wednesday, 14 August 2024 4:48:10 PM(UTC)
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93 mm here for the event with a few showers still sweeping through.
There has been some big falls of over 150mm within the area of this thread.
Below is the 24 hour rainfall totals from Mt Stapylton radar for when most of the rain fell. Also a map of the rainfall totals over the SEQLD area.

After the rain clears we are in for some leap frog weather with warm to hot days then back to cooler days. Water temperatures have dropped considerably but we are still in a neutral weather pattern. It is still looking like that we will enter into an El Nino phase.

IMG_4190.jpeg

IMG_4189.jpeg
Colin Maitland.
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Aussie Girl on 15/08/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#205 Posted : Tuesday, 20 August 2024 7:22:33 PM(UTC)
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By the modelling systems it almost appears winter is over and Spring is arriving slightly early. Some warm to hot days ahead and minimums are rising as well.

But this has happened in recent years and it is hard to say for sure that this is the last of the cold weather. Even last year, Spring seemed to arrive early only for the cooler weather to hang around well into October, then unfortunately we were smashed with very hot and humid weather. Our weather patterns have definitely changed. Records are being broken every year.

I will definitely be keeping an eye on this years storm season to see how it will unfold. For the SEQLD there is nothing showing up, but over the border, Lismore could see a storm Wed/Thursday this week.
Colin Maitland.
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Aussie Girl on 14/09/2024(UTC)
Offline Aussie Girl  
#206 Posted : Tuesday, 27 August 2024 3:31:56 PM(UTC)
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It feels like we are skipping Spring and going straight to Summer with the temps this week. And now we have some thunderstorms brewing.

This is the 128km Mt Stapylton radar image from 3.25pm.


27.8.24 3.25.JPG
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Colmait on 5/09/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#207 Posted : Thursday, 5 September 2024 8:22:31 AM(UTC)
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Thank you for the update @Aussie Girl. We were down in the Hunter Valley and the winds were extreme as well as very hot and dry. This summer has me on edge. I think at this stage, if things are to continue, this will be a summer of fires again.

One of the Cellar staff had just returned from Perisher after a snowboarding holiday. She said that the snow was so patchy that the were jumping over grass patches. I was watching other snow fields and they had closed the season down. The rain, heat and wind just wiped the snow right out.

Still seems to be a few grass hopper days were temperatures will be very hot and then drop back down to 23 - 24°C then back into the high 20’s and low 30’s before the start of the summer season.

While the East of Australia struggles with high temperatures and damaging winds, over in Southern WA they are predicting snow today. Very crazy.
Colin Maitland.
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Aussie Girl on 6/09/2024(UTC)
Offline Aussie Girl  
#208 Posted : Friday, 6 September 2024 8:30:12 AM(UTC)
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What a difference a week makes. Here we were last week having hot summer like temperatures in the 30s and this week the temperature has been back down to the low to mid 20's. The evenings have been cool enough to require wearing a jacket. Crazy weather.



Originally Posted by: Colmait Go to Quoted Post
Thank you for the update @Aussie Girl. We were down in the Hunter Valley and the winds were extreme as well as very hot and dry. This summer has me on edge. I think at this stage, if things are to continue, this will be a summer of fires again.

One of the Cellar staff had just returned from Perisher after a snowboarding holiday. She said that the snow was so patchy that the were jumping over grass patches. I was watching other snow fields and they had closed the season down. The rain, heat and wind just wiped the snow right out.




The coming summer has me on edge too Colmait. The ABC News had an article on Wednesday titled "Warnings over Increased Bushfire Risk as Australia Records Warmest August on Record" (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-04/spring-bushfire-outlook-suggests-increased-risk-in-qld-nt-vic-sa/104304072). It feels like we are in uncharted territory with the climate at the moment.

Interesting about the Cellar staff telling you about the lack of snow. I was just reading an article this morning that stated that Australia's snow seasons are projected to get shorter as Winters become warmer.

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Colmait on 7/09/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#209 Posted : Saturday, 7 September 2024 7:23:56 PM(UTC)
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Finally arrived back from the Hunter Valley this afternoon. We got up early so we could hit the road and do the trip in 1 day. My wife and I were sitting on the balcony at farm stay at Mitchells Flats, about 38KM from Muswellbrook. At 05:58 the 4.5 M earthquake at Muswellbrook hit. I have been through a few so it was an interesting way to end the stay. No damage there, just a jolt and shaking.

On another note, we were listening to the radio on the way back and we had tuned into the Taree radio station and they were stating that the have not backed burned anywhere near the quota required throughout NSW. A great concern down there.

The weather down there was much the same as Brisbane which is very unusual for the area. We had 2 cold nights and one cool day. The rest of the days were min of 13-17°C and 24-31°C for maximums.

Below is the GEO science report of the quake this morning .

IMG_4215.jpeg


Colin Maitland.
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Aussie Girl on 8/09/2024(UTC)
Offline Aussie Girl  
#210 Posted : Sunday, 8 September 2024 3:42:57 PM(UTC)
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That certainly was an interesting way to end your holidays Colmait. The news reported that the earthquake was felt as far away as Western Sydney so I can imagine you would have really felt it quite strongly where you were staying. Thank you for posting the GEO science report of the quake.

That is a bit scary that there has not been enough back burning throughout NSW. The only silver lining is that the fire season for NSW is predicted to be relatively normal this summer. A different story for us in Qld though, including the south east. This is an excerpt from a news article today:


"QFD commissioner Steve Smith said ..... a wet summer this year had given rise to ideal conditions for growth in parts of the state, raising new fire risks.

“We’ve got significant vegetation growth that has cured with a drier-than-average winter,” Mr Smith said.

With some of those frosts curing our fuels, this is elevated fire risk, particularly across northern, central and southern Queensland.”

Of particular concern were southern and central grasslands and forests, particularly around the Scenic Rim area.

Areas to the west in Darling Downs as well as Charleville, up to Warrego and the Maranoa, were also of concern.

“There’s also heightened conditions risk for the Sunshine Coast hinterland,” Mr Smith said.


(https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/increased-risk-firies-bleak-warning-for-spring-bushfire-season/news-story/3fc14db3ecd930d4ecd1c5fb19f47c49)

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Colmait on 9/09/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#211 Posted : Tuesday, 10 September 2024 8:37:52 AM(UTC)
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Due to the existing high and a new High that will develop in the South of Australia (The Bite), and troughs in Queensland moving around and developing then moving off the Coast, ( so much going on with high and lows Huh ) our weather for the next week or so, for this area of this thread is going to see cooler daytime temperatures, warmer minimums and a few showers, with maybe a possible rumble or two embedded in some of the showers.

I was going to upload the 8 day WATL forecast rainfall totals but it is still trying to finish the end of its model forecast. But it looks like we may see 20-30 mm over the next 7 days on average at this stage, with some areas, under the right band of showers possibly receiving higher totals..

Edited by user Tuesday, 10 September 2024 9:39:48 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Colin Maitland.
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Aussie Girl on 14/09/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#212 Posted : Tuesday, 10 September 2024 2:25:34 PM(UTC)
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A fair bit of lightning in the showers passing over SE QLD this afternoon. Below is the Mt Stapylton radar sweep of the showers , the Energex lightning tracker and the Himawari satellite lightning tracker.
Pretty cool to come out of the cinema after finally seeing Twisters and seeing darkened skies.

IMG_4218.jpeg

IMG_4217.jpeg

IMG_4216.jpeg

Edited by user Tuesday, 10 September 2024 2:26:21 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Colin Maitland.
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Aussie Girl on 14/09/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#213 Posted : Wednesday, 25 September 2024 6:04:16 AM(UTC)
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Our weather is still in a neutral pattern but most likely will eventually swing back into a La Niña cycle once again.

But our day to day weather is still in this warm to hot then followed by a cold snap. This will repeat itself once again mid to late Thursday afternoon with a top of 26-28°C possible, then a southern Polar cold blast will hit us making Friday feel like we are back in Winter. The front will also deliver some needed rain with some areas having the possibility of accumulating 40+mm. It is a short blast with temperatures set to soar back up into the 30°C mark by mid next week as the the Cold front moves out to sea around Saturday afternoon.

Stay safe and enjoy the wet and cool Friday.

Edited by user Wednesday, 25 September 2024 8:08:51 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Spelling.

Colin Maitland.
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Aussie Girl on 26/09/2024(UTC)
Offline Aussie Girl  
#214 Posted : Thursday, 26 September 2024 10:34:37 AM(UTC)
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The last two weeks have been absolutely lovely weather wise. Great outdoor weather for the school holidays. The kids have had lots of fun at the pool and beach.

A different story for Friday and Saturday though as Colmait mentioned above. This is the Bom forecast for Brisbane for those days:


Frid 27.9.24.JPG

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Colmait on 26/09/2024(UTC)
Offline Aussie Girl  
#215 Posted : Thursday, 26 September 2024 9:51:33 PM(UTC)
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The rain is on its way now to the South East. Here is the BOM 512km Mt Stapylton image at 9.41 pm tonight and from the look of the radar image, some areas will receive a decent amount of rain from this. It will actually be nice to have some rain as the ground is starting to get a bit dry around here.


512 Mt Stapylton image 26.9.24.JPG

Edited by user Thursday, 26 September 2024 9:52:16 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Colmait on 27/09/2024(UTC)
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