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Offline Colmait  
#81 Posted : Tuesday, 13 February 2024 7:59:49 AM(UTC)
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A scattered shower or two this morning around the thread area then it should ease back today and Wednesday.

Just watching the models, I did say there may be a slim chance of a thunderstorm on Thursday, but this morning that seems to have shifted a day forward to Wednesday. I just have to have a look at the updated model run and see what is happening. I would not expect anything severe “if” something did manage to fire off.

All the action today is in the top of the Northern Territory and Queensland with the monsoon and a possible low forming into a cyclone in the Gulf.

But below is the raincast for today. Only a shower or two and isolated mainly to the North of Brisbane.

IMG_3722.jpeg

Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#82 Posted : Wednesday, 14 February 2024 6:23:45 AM(UTC)
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Still stuck in the same weather pattern. High 20°- 31°C about the East and maybe a little hotter inland towards Ipswich and surrounds.
Today may see less shower activity than previous days but there is a very slim chance, and I do mean slim chance of maybe a thunderstorm or thundery showers this afternoon.The winds this afternoon should swing around to the North East and feed into any possible cells or showers that may manage to form.
Below is Windy’s GFS take on the probability.

IMG_3723.jpeg

And the forecast sounding as can be seen below. There is not a lot of instability to be seen and it has a small cap of about 1°C to overcome .. Not an ideal setup for a storm but maybe a rumble or two embedded in some scattered showers. Just have to wait and see the actual sounding when it is released.

IMG_3724.jpeg
Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#83 Posted : Wednesday, 14 February 2024 1:16:44 PM(UTC)
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There has been so good showers to the North of Gympie this morning and early afternoon. 1 hour rain totals in some area have been around the 25mm mark. Still a chance of a storm about as the afternoon wears on.

Below is the Gympie Radar with the 1 hour totals as at 13:10

IMG_3726.jpeg
Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#84 Posted : Wednesday, 14 February 2024 3:05:23 PM(UTC)
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Some decent cells/showers on the radar this afternoon. Due to the lack of steering winds they are moving slowly and dropping some good rain.

A STW is out for Heavy Rain just to the west of here including the Darling Downs.

IMG_3729.jpeg

IMG_3727.jpeg


IMG_3728.jpeg

Edited by user Wednesday, 14 February 2024 3:06:17 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#85 Posted : Wednesday, 14 February 2024 5:02:09 PM(UTC)
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So far Brisbane and surrounding suburbs have missed out on the storms, it may change as the evening approaches. But it was a slim chance for this area. I need to be more specific in areas when forecasting. Usually on a forum there are members in other areas of the thread that will input their areas weather and observations. But please feel welcome to join the forum. I try and keep everything as simple as possible. It is actually more fun to convert a technical observation and breakdown of an upcoming event into very simple terms. Weather has to be understood by all no matter what level you are at. So please join in if you would like.

Here is the latest STW just to the West.

IMG_3730.jpeg

2 hours later and the radar is almost the same. Very slow moving cells.

IMG_3731.jpeg

Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#86 Posted : Friday, 16 February 2024 5:56:41 AM(UTC)
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They were replacing power poles yesterday so I didn’t have power for most of the day.
But today starts with a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Heavy rain.

Today will see some heavy rain at times. A trough over Eastern and Southern Queensland will strengthen today and a weak upper trough will cause heavy rainfall mainly towards the East. This should start to ease off over the weekend.

The storm warning below with some of the rain totals.

IMG_3732.jpeg

IMG_3734.jpeg

IMG_3735.jpeg
Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#87 Posted : Monday, 19 February 2024 6:35:47 AM(UTC)
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A trough and associated upper thermal atmospheric conditions may increase shower and thunderstorm activity about the far southeast of the Queensland and NE NSW during Monday and Tuesday, with a risk of moderate to locally heavy falls.
Most of the activity is more towards to Brisbane and the Southside, Ipswich and towards the border. Below is the Windy EC chart showing posslocations of storm in the afternoon.

IMG_3740.jpeg

This is the forecast sounding but it will be a better indicator when the Sounding come in to tell us what is happening in the layers of the atmosphere.

IMG_3739.jpeg

And below is meteye’s take on the possibility of storms.

IMG_3738.jpeg

When I was running through the models I thought that Friday, which in terms of storms is a long way out at this point, looked a bigger storm day, so I will be keeping an eye open as the week progresses.
Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#88 Posted : Monday, 19 February 2024 2:00:51 PM(UTC)
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STW at 2:00 pm

IMG_3741.jpeg
Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#89 Posted : Wednesday, 21 February 2024 6:15:44 AM(UTC)
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Wednesday is once again looking like a repeat weather pattern as yesterday. A slim chance of isolated showers.
Running through the models and there could be a storm on Friday but I am waiting on the next run, but Saturday is now looking the better of the two days to have the potential of some widespread storm activity.

Below is just the storm possibilities without going into the setup as it could still change, but it shows the difference between the two days. I had earlier said that Friday was looking good for storms but would need to wait and see as it was some time out and sure enough it has changed.

Friday

IMG_3742.jpeg

Saturday.

IMG_3743.jpeg

Once again just have to see the next runs to try and get a better idea of what is happening.
Colin Maitland.
thanks 1 user thanked Colmait for this useful post.
FMD on 21/02/2024(UTC)
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