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Offline crikey  
#1 Posted : Friday, 18 December 2020 3:31:26 PM(UTC)
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It’s Nearly 3rd week into December 2020 and no cyclone as yet in our region.
ACCESS g was on board for one of the NW coast but has changed mind.
Now going for a tropical low on the NT coast as a dumb bell style low down the WA coast. Moisture to spread inland and water eastward toward Qld and NSW
Anyway that’s the current prognosis
Anyway. Hi to al you weather nerds keeping this forum alive on ICU.
I give yes all a medal!🙋‍♂️

Edited by user Friday, 18 December 2020 3:32:37 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Pabloako on 18/12/2020(UTC), 28degrees on 18/12/2020(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#2 Posted : Friday, 18 December 2020 8:11:33 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: crikey Go to Quoted Post
It’s Nearly 3rd week into December 2020 and no cyclone as yet in our region.


After Christmas.
They keep telling us we're going to get four.
I don't care what we get as long as it keeps raining. Had 44mm out here on Tuesday. Feel like I'm in heaven.
Offline crikey  
#3 Posted : Saturday, 19 December 2020 1:34:23 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: 28degrees Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: crikey Go to Quoted Post
It’s Nearly 3rd week into December 2020 and no cyclone as yet in our region.


After Christmas.
They keep telling us we're going to get four.
I don't care what we get as long as it keeps raining. Had 44mm out here on Tuesday. Feel like I'm in heaven.


...—————-
Hope you get some spin of from this glorious looking convection and rotation 28 degrees.
Animation courtesy of BOM twitter

https://twitter.com/BOM_...1340127390236852224?s=20


Offline 28degrees  
#4 Posted : Saturday, 19 December 2020 4:59:19 PM(UTC)
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Nothing more except the odd 1mm.
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crikey on 20/12/2020(UTC), DelBoy on 2/01/2021(UTC)
Offline crikey  
#5 Posted : Sunday, 20 December 2020 12:15:08 PM(UTC)
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The tropical low on the north WA coast deepening on the mainland into Monday and Tuesday
Should see some stronger convection and cloud banding
Inland Nth WA and NT should get some rain from this .
Offline crikey  
#6 Posted : Tuesday, 22 December 2020 12:10:11 PM(UTC)
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Just an observation from the ACCESS g surface synoptic.
Mid latitude high pressure cells centred very low(southward) this week. No idea how long that’s been going on or for how long it will go on.
This pattern makes strong cyclogenesis harder even with MJo or cross equatorial available as the northern flank of a strong high supports the southern flank of a forming TC.
However ACCESS g showing some heavy falls over inland parts of Qld on Friday,Christmas Day from a tropical dip in isobars troughing
Offline DelBoy  
#7 Posted : Monday, 28 December 2020 7:12:47 PM(UTC)
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I went over to Bribie Island today and the sea is like a bath and easily;y 26 degrees down here.
The sea surface temperature won't be an issue this year!
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crikey on 4/01/2021(UTC)
Offline crikey  
#8 Posted : Tuesday, 29 December 2020 1:12:41 PM(UTC)
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Weatherzone says we have had no named cyclones in our region so far. This has only happened 3 times in the past 15 yrs
https://twitter.com/weat...1343742514595942400?s=20
Offline DelBoy  
#9 Posted : Tuesday, 29 December 2020 3:55:38 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: crikey Go to Quoted Post
Weatherzone says we have had no named cyclones in our region so far. This has only happened 3 times in the past 15 yrs
https://twitter.com/weat...1343742514595942400?s=20


I loved all the sensationalised media articles a few months ago. I don't see many correcting themselves yet.
The last La Nina failed to do much and this one may well do the same yet. All the ingredients are there and we are just missing a trigger.
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crikey on 30/12/2020(UTC)
Offline crikey  
#10 Posted : Wednesday, 30 December 2020 4:49:21 PM(UTC)
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The cross equatorial is quite weak in the Australian jurisdiction currently. However quite organised in the mid Indian Ocean.
Source. Access gradient wind maps Asian region. By BOM
Offline crikey  
#11 Posted : Wednesday, 30 December 2020 4:49:53 PM(UTC)
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The cross equatorial is quite weak in the Australian jurisdiction currently. However quite organised in the mid Indian Ocean.
Source. Access gradient wind maps Asian region. By BOM
Offline crikey  
#12 Posted : Saturday, 2 January 2021 12:40:28 PM(UTC)
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ABC weather newsman touting a possible TC up around the gulf.
Had a look a Access wind streams greater Asia and all l can see us a sloppy monsoon trough at the top end to the gulf , A small rotation in the gulf perhaps but no strong cross equatorial NW flow and lacking organised high pressure to support a southern flank.
Doesnt mean it won’t rain . Tropical lows and storms
Some hint at a strong wet in inland tropical low for internal Qld later in the week.
Offline DelBoy  
#13 Posted : Saturday, 2 January 2021 7:09:39 PM(UTC)
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A cyclone watch is now in place from the Northern Territory-Queensland border to Pormpuraaw on the western Cape York Peninsula coast for the system, sitting 315 kilometres north-west of Mornington Island as of 10am Saturday. (Brisbane Times)

1e9715ded154a81fdf6348995fbce0492049d155.png
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crikey on 3/01/2021(UTC)
Offline DelBoy  
#14 Posted : Sunday, 3 January 2021 4:16:21 PM(UTC)
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The latest charts from BOM as the low turning into a Cat1 this evenings.
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crikey on 4/01/2021(UTC)
Offline Weary  
#15 Posted : Sunday, 3 January 2021 5:07:54 PM(UTC)
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Now a Cyclone, Imogen
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NotCrocDundee on 3/01/2021(UTC), crikey on 4/01/2021(UTC)
Offline NotCrocDundee  
#16 Posted : Sunday, 3 January 2021 5:25:35 PM(UTC)
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IDQ65001 (1).png
Here she is!
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crikey on 4/01/2021(UTC)
Offline crikey  
#17 Posted : Monday, 4 January 2021 4:08:25 PM(UTC)
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Looking at some of the BOM obs
Normanton. Pressure got down to 990.2 hPa around 2 am
Highest wind gust 100km/hr
Rain total from yesterday 3rd Jan 2020 .. 263 mm
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DelBoy on 4/01/2021(UTC)
Offline DelBoy  
#18 Posted : Monday, 4 January 2021 7:17:47 PM(UTC)
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There are some impressive rain totals being forecast for Townsville, Ingham and Cairns over the new few days. 350mm+ according to BOM.

IDQ65001.png
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crikey on 5/01/2021(UTC)
Offline crikey  
#19 Posted : Tuesday, 5 January 2021 12:44:23 PM(UTC)
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I am not familiar with most weather stations up north
This is BOM rainfall totals for the past week in table format, for up north QLD
One we all should know is Hamilton island.
They have had some spin off from this low l think
They have had 277mm in the past week .

http://www.bom.gov.au/cl...l/station-rainfall.shtml


ACCESS g is showing some places in Qld to get a dumping but from troughing with lots of moisture probably from ex Imogen

http://www.bom.gov.au/au...harts/viewer/index.shtml

Look forward to seeing the totals in the central and nth qld threads.
The locals must be excited at the wet stuff finally.🥰

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DelBoy on 9/01/2021(UTC)
Offline Wettish  
#20 Posted : Sunday, 10 January 2021 4:53:01 PM(UTC)
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While Imogen died a rather quick death the effects of the convergence is indeed being felt down as far as the Mackay region. We've had some hefty totals along the coast and plenty of folk stranded. Have seen ECMWF is touting a possible low around the 26th Jan. Maybe our season is going to kick in.

https://www.tropicaltidb...me=2021011000&fh=384
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DelBoy on 11/01/2021(UTC), snowbunny on 13/01/2021(UTC)
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