Weather Forum

Welcome Guest! To enable all features please Login or Register.

Notification

Icon
Error

3 Pages<123>
Share
Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Offline 28degrees  
#21 Posted : Sunday, 10 January 2021 4:58:56 PM(UTC)
28degrees

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 27/08/2019(UTC)
Posts: 285
Australia
Location: Chillagoe

Thanks: 146 times
Was thanked: 86 time(s) in 67 post(s)
Hi Wettish. Welcome to our group. Hopefully your season will kick in soon. I'm still having trouble believing the amount of rain we've had here.
thanks 2 users thanked 28degrees for this useful post.
Wettish on 10/01/2021(UTC), crikey on 11/01/2021(UTC)
Offline Wettish  
#22 Posted : Sunday, 10 January 2021 7:46:37 PM(UTC)
Wettish

Rank: Newbie

Groups: Registered
Joined: 10/01/2021(UTC)
Posts: 4
Australia
Location: Mackay

Thanks: 3 times
Was thanked: 6 time(s) in 4 post(s)
Thanks for the Welcome 28Degrees, I am sure a lot of the locals here will not be wanting the season to kick in until their lawns have dried out and been mown :) - Me I say being it on.
thanks 1 user thanked Wettish for this useful post.
crikey on 11/01/2021(UTC)
Offline crikey  
#23 Posted : Monday, 11 January 2021 9:12:07 AM(UTC)
crikey

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 24/08/2019(UTC)
Posts: 255
Australia
Location: Tweed NSW

Thanks: 571 times
Was thanked: 485 time(s) in 177 post(s)
Hi wettish’
Always great to have ex weatherzoners contributing.
Hopefully a few more will join in to keep things interesting.

Had a look at the Access g gradient wind streams in the Broader Asia region
The Indian Ocean has another 2 cyclones developing.
The cross equatorial is still weak in the Australian jurisdiction. Very strong easterly right across the central pacific still continuing
I can see in 7 days time the monsoon trough line and tropical low instigating near the gulf region.
Thanks for the longer range heads up. Will watch with interest.
thanks 1 user thanked crikey for this useful post.
Wettish on 16/01/2021(UTC)
Offline DelBoy  
#24 Posted : Monday, 11 January 2021 1:28:16 PM(UTC)
DelBoy

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 13/09/2019(UTC)
Posts: 118
Location: Caboolture (the next Las Vegas!)

Thanks: 215 times
Was thanked: 297 time(s) in 100 post(s)
Originally Posted by: Wettish Go to Quoted Post
While Imogen died a rather quick death the effects of the convergence is indeed being felt down as far as the Mackay region. We've had some hefty totals along the coast and plenty of folk stranded. Have seen ECMWF is touting a possible low around the 26th Jan. Maybe our season is going to kick in.

https://www.tropicaltidb...me=2021011000&fh=384


Thanks for the link!... Yes, it looks like we have a quiet couple of week and then hopefully the monsoon kicks in again.
thanks 2 users thanked DelBoy for this useful post.
snowbunny on 13/01/2021(UTC), NotCrocDundee on 17/01/2021(UTC)
Offline Wettish  
#25 Posted : Saturday, 16 January 2021 11:12:16 PM(UTC)
Wettish

Rank: Newbie

Groups: Registered
Joined: 10/01/2021(UTC)
Posts: 4
Australia
Location: Mackay

Thanks: 3 times
Was thanked: 6 time(s) in 4 post(s)
So we are waiting on the convection up north to gain momentum. Judging by the amount of dry air coming across from the centre it will be a short lived cyclone if it does get it act together. Might more action over in the Indian ocean.
thanks 1 user thanked Wettish for this useful post.
crikey on 19/01/2021(UTC)
Offline Weary  
#26 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 12:31:48 PM(UTC)
Weary

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 12/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 79
Australia
Location: Cairns

Was thanked: 56 time(s) in 39 post(s)
9F9D5030-3284-4014-80FC-4A11398C85FD.png
thanks 3 users thanked Weary for this useful post.
NotCrocDundee on 17/01/2021(UTC), snowbunny on 18/01/2021(UTC), crikey on 19/01/2021(UTC)
Offline DelBoy  
#27 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 4:46:46 PM(UTC)
DelBoy

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 13/09/2019(UTC)
Posts: 118
Location: Caboolture (the next Las Vegas!)

Thanks: 215 times
Was thanked: 297 time(s) in 100 post(s)
Ok..... I'm confused.... (Probably not hard).

There is hardly anything of GFS or CMC or even weatherzone charts that say there is a cyclone in Kimi's forecast area.

WZ has a small low pressure of 1011hpa on the monsoon trough on Tuesday, but that is it. However BOM are going for a CAT2 tomorrow.

Am I missing something?
thanks 2 users thanked DelBoy for this useful post.
snowbunny on 18/01/2021(UTC), crikey on 19/01/2021(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#28 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 7:05:01 PM(UTC)
28degrees

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 27/08/2019(UTC)
Posts: 285
Australia
Location: Chillagoe

Thanks: 146 times
Was thanked: 86 time(s) in 67 post(s)
Looks like we're up to track 3. With any luck Chillagoe will get some decent rain out of Kimi, but we've got the Featherbed Range blob in the way. 800 metre peaks.
No rain to speak of today.

Screenshot_20210117_185941_com.vivaldi.browser~01.jpg
thanks 2 users thanked 28degrees for this useful post.
DelBoy on 17/01/2021(UTC), crikey on 19/01/2021(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#29 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 8:08:48 PM(UTC)
28degrees

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 27/08/2019(UTC)
Posts: 285
Australia
Location: Chillagoe

Thanks: 146 times
Was thanked: 86 time(s) in 67 post(s)
TC Kimi - track map 4

Screenshot_20210117_200351_com.vivaldi.browser_1.jpg

Headline:
Tropical cyclone Kimi moving slowly south-southeast, expected to turn south-southwest tomorrow. Cyclone Warning extended south to Lucinda.


Areas affected:
Warning zone: Cooktown to Lucinda, extending inland to Mareeba and Chillagoe, and including Cairns, Port Douglas, Cardwell, and Atherton.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: Cooktown to Cape Melville, and Palmerville.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Kimi at 7:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 15.6 degrees South, 146.6 degrees East , 145 kilometres east of Cooktown and 170 kilometres north northeast of Cairns .
Movement: south southeast at 6 kilometres per hour .

Tropical cyclone Kimi has been moving slowly south-southeast through today, but is expected to turn more to the south-southwest tomorrow.

The slow southward movement has delayed the expected crossing time. The system is currently expected to cross the coast late on Monday between about Port Douglas and Innisfail. There remains considerable uncertaintly with the crossing time and location.

The system may intensify further over the next 24 hours and reach category 2 before landfall.


Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 km/h may develop about coastal and island areas between Port Douglas and Innisfail on Monday afternoon or evening as the core of the cyclone approaches.

GALES with gusts to 120km/h may develop about coastal and island areas between Cooktown and Innisfail from early Monday morning. These GALES may extend inland to Mareeba and Chillagoe, or further south to Cardwell, later on Monday depending on the movement of the cyclone.

HEAVY RAINFALL is forecast to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas between Cape Flattery and Cardwell from Sunday evening. A Flood Watch is current for this area; refer to that product for more detail.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are likely tonight and on Monday as the cyclone approaches and crosses the coast, however they are unlikely to exceed the highest tide of the year.


Recommended Action:
People between Cooktown and Lucinda should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight hours.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- If you choose to take shelter away from your home, stay COVID-19 safe and pack a mask and hand sanitiser (if you have them).
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

thanks 3 users thanked 28degrees for this useful post.
DelBoy on 17/01/2021(UTC), NotCrocDundee on 17/01/2021(UTC), crikey on 19/01/2021(UTC)
Offline DelBoy  
#30 Posted : Sunday, 17 January 2021 8:27:39 PM(UTC)
DelBoy

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 13/09/2019(UTC)
Posts: 118
Location: Caboolture (the next Las Vegas!)

Thanks: 215 times
Was thanked: 297 time(s) in 100 post(s)
Wow. CAT2 should pack a small punch
thanks 1 user thanked DelBoy for this useful post.
crikey on 19/01/2021(UTC)
Offline snowbunny  
#31 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 6:47:09 AM(UTC)
snowbunny

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 26/08/2019(UTC)
Posts: 113
Australia
Location: Travel but often NSW

Thanks: 168 times
Was thanked: 88 time(s) in 51 post(s)
Originally Posted by: DelBoy Go to Quoted Post
Ok..... I'm confused.... (Probably not hard).

There is hardly anything of GFS or CMC or even weatherzone charts that say there is a cyclone in Kimi's forecast area.

WZ has a small low pressure of 1011hpa on the monsoon trough on Tuesday, but that is it. However BOM are going for a CAT2 tomorrow.

Am I missing something?


I don’t know where they get a cyclone from the wind fields displayed on BOM Access model
A tropical low perhaps.
Are they desperate to fill the quota for cyclones they forecast?
I have little trust in BOM regarding their climate emergency.
Seems a lot of drama to me
I thought Imogen was overcooked as well
Tropical storm at best
Maybe they define all tropical storms as cyclones these days
Who knows?

thanks 1 user thanked snowbunny for this useful post.
crikey on 19/01/2021(UTC)
Offline DelBoy  
#32 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 6:53:48 AM(UTC)
DelBoy

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 13/09/2019(UTC)
Posts: 118
Location: Caboolture (the next Las Vegas!)

Thanks: 215 times
Was thanked: 297 time(s) in 100 post(s)
Yep..I am not seeing a pressure gradient that I would expect with a Cat1 or Cat2 as they are forecasting.

Hopefully the people on the ground prove me otherwise an report 100kmph winds.
thanks 3 users thanked DelBoy for this useful post.
beej on 18/01/2021(UTC), 28degrees on 18/01/2021(UTC), crikey on 19/01/2021(UTC)
Offline crikey  
#33 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 11:11:18 AM(UTC)
crikey

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 24/08/2019(UTC)
Posts: 255
Australia
Location: Tweed NSW

Thanks: 571 times
Was thanked: 485 time(s) in 177 post(s)
The BOM technical Bulletin has Kimi at 990 h pa
Very small with radius winds only 35 to 95 km wide
So currently very small.
The winds in 4 quadrants range from 34 to 48 knots( 63 to 89 km/hr)
Intensification expected in the next 24 hrs to 983 hPa
Winds to 55 knots ( 102 km/ hr)
http://www.bom.gov.au/cg...wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20018.txt

Looking at the American definition Komi would be rated as a tropical storm.. This storm is currently recognised on this monitoring service
https://www.wunderground...21/tropical-cyclone-kimi

thanks 2 users thanked crikey for this useful post.
DelBoy on 18/01/2021(UTC), 28degrees on 18/01/2021(UTC)
Offline tropicalbomb  
#34 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 11:22:00 AM(UTC)
tropicalbomb

Rank: Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 1/09/2019(UTC)
Posts: 24
Australia
Location: darwin

Thanks: 23 times
Was thanked: 38 time(s) in 19 post(s)
Looks a lot more convincing on temperature satellite image
Credit to wunderground
The greatest convection over Cairns perhaps?
649EBCF7-64E0-4403-BDD5-3D53A8EDBC5E.jpeg


https://www.wunderground...21/tropical-cyclone-kimi

Edited by user Monday, 18 January 2021 11:23:13 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

thanks 3 users thanked tropicalbomb for this useful post.
DelBoy on 18/01/2021(UTC), 28degrees on 18/01/2021(UTC), crikey on 19/01/2021(UTC)
Offline crikey  
#35 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 12:31:02 PM(UTC)
crikey

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 24/08/2019(UTC)
Posts: 255
Australia
Location: Tweed NSW

Thanks: 571 times
Was thanked: 485 time(s) in 177 post(s)
OK Blink
Heads up for a strong TC for WA from ACCESS model.
Should be named by Thursday at least and could make landfall near Port Hedland on Saturday.
Looks a deep compact nasty TC
C2ED2B40-5A15-4E82-BD24-38C1A4C4D25C.png565C50C8-33F3-4496-A4F7-9C8B822D9EE6.png
thanks 1 user thanked crikey for this useful post.
28degrees on 18/01/2021(UTC)
Offline crikey  
#36 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 2:51:04 PM(UTC)
crikey

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 24/08/2019(UTC)
Posts: 255
Australia
Location: Tweed NSW

Thanks: 571 times
Was thanked: 485 time(s) in 177 post(s)
I have seen a couple of variations of the tracking map today.
This is the latest l believe with no landfall which will be the better option than the previous ABC post which said landfall overnight or Tuesday.
The core is close to the coast so a small shift overnight might surprise someone.

https://www.abc.net.au/n...irns-townsville/13066832

581E6EDA-D59A-4C07-BDD6-9F6EDA65B5B3.png

Edited by user Monday, 18 January 2021 2:53:28 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

thanks 3 users thanked crikey for this useful post.
monkeybusiness on 18/01/2021(UTC), DelBoy on 18/01/2021(UTC), Pabloako on 18/01/2021(UTC)
Offline Pabloako  
#37 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 6:39:40 PM(UTC)
Pabloako

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 21/08/2019(UTC)
Posts: 185
Australia
Location: Ocean View

Thanks: 359 times
Was thanked: 539 time(s) in 161 post(s)
Kimi is looking more of a messy blob at the moment.

QLD18-01-2021-1804.jpg
thanks 2 users thanked Pabloako for this useful post.
crikey on 19/01/2021(UTC), tropicalbomb on 19/01/2021(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#38 Posted : Monday, 18 January 2021 7:22:14 PM(UTC)
28degrees

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 27/08/2019(UTC)
Posts: 285
Australia
Location: Chillagoe

Thanks: 146 times
Was thanked: 86 time(s) in 67 post(s)
She looks pretty crappy on radar too. Maybe she's turning east about to come back to us.
thanks 1 user thanked 28degrees for this useful post.
crikey on 19/01/2021(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#39 Posted : Tuesday, 19 January 2021 7:12:28 AM(UTC)
28degrees

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 27/08/2019(UTC)
Posts: 285
Australia
Location: Chillagoe

Thanks: 146 times
Was thanked: 86 time(s) in 67 post(s)
Just a low off Townsville now. Barely showing on radar.

Screenshot_20210119_063222_com.vivaldi.browser.jpg

Screenshot_20210119_062929_com.vivaldi.browser.jpg

Headline:
Cyclone Kimi has weakened into a tropical low off the north Queensland coast. Significant impacts on the coast are no longer expected, although heavy rainfall remains a possibility.

Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: Lucinda to Bowen.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kimi at 4:00 am AEST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 18.3 degrees South, 147.6 degrees East , 250 kilometres southeast of Cairns and 135 kilometres northeast of Townsville .
Movement: slow moving .

Cyclone Kimi has weakened into a remnant tropical low off the north Queensland coast.

The system is expected to remain slow-moving well off the coast through much of today, then begin tracking back towards the north-northwest from late this afternoon as a weak tropical low.

A coastal crossing as a tropical cyclone is no longer expected.

Hazards:
GALES are no longer expected about coastal and island areas.

HEAVY RAINFALL with the potential to produce flash flooding and major river flooding may still affect coastal areas between Innisfail and Bowen on Tuesday and Wednesday if the remnant low moves closer to the coast. A Flood Watch is current for this area; refer to that product for more detail.

Tides will be slightly higher than normal between Bowen and Lucinda, however the sea level is not expected to approach the highest tide of the year.

Details:
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.) Longitude
(decimal deg.) Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 4 am January 19 tropical low 18.3S 147.6E 55
+6hr 10 am January 19 tropical low 18.4S 147.6E 50
+12hr 4 pm January 19 tropical low 18.5S 147.5E 70
+18hr 10 pm January 19 tropical low 18.3S 147.2E 95
+24hr 4 am January 20 tropical low 18.0S 146.8E 120
+36hr 4 pm January 20 tropical low 17.2S 146.2E 155
+48hr 4 am January 21 tropical low 16.5S 145.9E 190
+60hr 4 pm January 21 tropical low 15.8S 145.8E 225
+72hr 4 am January 22 tropical low 15.0S 145.6E 265
Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue
There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system unless it reintensifies.

sh1121 (4).png

And just for comparison, in the greater scheme of things...
Screenshot_20210119_065829_appinventor.ai_peep_prants.EarthWind.jpg

Edited by user Tuesday, 19 January 2021 7:16:52 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

thanks 3 users thanked 28degrees for this useful post.
beej on 19/01/2021(UTC), tropicalbomb on 19/01/2021(UTC), monkeybusiness on 19/01/2021(UTC)
Offline tropicalbomb  
#40 Posted : Tuesday, 19 January 2021 12:04:15 PM(UTC)
tropicalbomb

Rank: Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 1/09/2019(UTC)
Posts: 24
Australia
Location: darwin

Thanks: 23 times
Was thanked: 38 time(s) in 19 post(s)
Thanks for the posts. All very interesting.
BOM are giving the heads up for a TC off the west coast.
The ports along the coast will be moving into damage control in the coming days

http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/nwcyclone.shtml


4E65816C-7EAF-4F0C-93D7-E7352E85D239.png
Users browsing this topic
OceanSpiders 2.0
3 Pages<123>
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Weather Forum

Weatherzone Forum Alternative

The Weather Forum for Australia

Australian Weather Forum

Weather Forum for Australia, climate change, storm chasing, cyclones, weather photography