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Offline Colmait  
#1 Posted : Monday, 18 October 2021 4:03:10 PM(UTC)
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Some decent storms have developed throughout the afternoon. BoM were lagging a little behind in their updates but they got there in the end.

Possible tornado near Gladstone was captured but it is a close call on this one. Technically one still shot shows cloud to ground but the video footage is a bit light on, but still the atmosphere over the 2 days is pretty well primed to produce decent storms and supercells.

https://www.abc.net.au/n...ast-queensland/100547112

91402956-52AC-4F77-8022-8709014DF4B7.jpeg

It was always on the cards that the storms would reach the coast in the afternoon as the sea breeze fuelled the band of storms.

DC876FC3-A564-4968-9A43-F98ECC9F36A8.png

30D7BE63-FCDE-4D25-8C34-9A837CD360A2.png

DFD3C964-B2C3-414C-B145-B51E5FFF15EF.jpeg

The above 3 images just show that bom were a little behind on their updates. But as I was tapping this post out things changed dramatically.

Latest update

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Southeast Queensland
for LARGE HAILSTONES and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in Logan, Gold Coast and parts of Ipswich, Scenic Rim, Redland City, Sunshine Coast, Brisbane City and Moreton Bay Council Areas.

Issued at 3:36 pm Monday, 18 October 2021.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 3:30 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near Strathpine, Redcliffe, Montville, Bribie Island, Greenbank and Logan Village. They are forecast to affect Coolangatta, Beaudesert and the area southwest of Caloundra by 4:00 pm and Brisbane CBD, Caboolture and Wamuran by 4:30 pm.

Heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding is the main hazard with these storms. Marginally large hail is also possible.

2C358242-1C31-451E-B3E1-92CB2921CAB2.png

At this stage the modelling has the storms more coastal for Tuesday but it is a wait and see as this could easily change considering the higher temperatures and more fuel from todays rain.

Edited by moderator Tuesday, 19 October 2021 6:12:51 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#2 Posted : Monday, 18 October 2021 5:23:53 PM(UTC)
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A second tornado has been confirmed at Pittsworth by BoM. It hit just before 11:00 am Monday morning.

https://www.abc.net.au/n...rnado-and-hail/100548250

ABC News reported
The Bureau of Meteorology confirmed reports of a tornado at Pittsworth, south-west of Toowoomba, just before 11:00am.

"It seemed to be a fairly low-intensity tornado, but [there are] clear signs that it was one," forecaster Shane Kennedy said.

"In this case we had both social media photos and video, so we could see some clear rotation and [the tornado] reaching the ground.
Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#3 Posted : Tuesday, 19 October 2021 7:26:02 AM(UTC)
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The outlook for today is quite borderline and if anything fires up at this stage it would be very coastal.
The area between Bowen and Hervey Bay has a greater chance of storm activity and maybe even severe in some places.

The 3 images highlights the scenario playing out, and as you can see NSW should have more activity than the SEQ. Most of the storm activity is staying East of the ranges.

B21F5249-EB48-41E9-9F53-5326E35AFF9F.jpeg

C6B3A207-57E1-4E7E-8525-CE070AA73857.jpeg

BCFDE908-ACB6-435A-B6ED-E5668C4E2830.png

This is the forecast sounding from the modelling for possible storms and it is not looking too good especially with regards to the lack of instability. For some decent activity we would need the sounding to look more like the blue line I have added for the instability. There are other factors involved too. But we just need to wait and see what the 11:00 sounding looks like to gain a better picture.

317D3879-709C-4663-861F-9EBCCD5A87AE.jpeg
Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#4 Posted : Tuesday, 19 October 2021 7:34:13 AM(UTC)
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2 photos of the hail yesterday with credit to the contributors for each photo.

AF91C2FC-65C8-420E-ACC0-E933B13F3688.jpeg

81C82405-2FE4-4FAC-803E-A41084F8569D.jpeg
Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#5 Posted : Tuesday, 19 October 2021 12:12:44 PM(UTC)
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With the BoM’s sounding for Brisbane we now have the instability unlike the model sounding . But the big problem is the lack of moisture has increased. It really depends on the sea breeze this afternoon if anything develops.

420C9A64-93E2-4BB0-B57D-C98034EC12AC.jpeg
Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#6 Posted : Tuesday, 19 October 2021 3:43:25 PM(UTC)
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A few little cells trying hard to form around Oakintgton, Boonah and just south of the border.
Most of the action at 15:38 is up towards Hervey Bay and Gladstone with warnings issued for those areas.
Bellow is a sweep of the Mt Stapy radar at 15:35.
Whether the sea breeze can create enough moisture is the big question other wise we may just see an evening shower with maybe a rumble if anything does eventuate.

73EC7E4A-A9F9-4053-A02A-4C3B8BDD7783.png
Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#7 Posted : Tuesday, 19 October 2021 4:51:41 PM(UTC)
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It is interesting watching storm cells and showers develop.
With the images below you can see the path that the cells/showers are following.
At this point the moisture is feeding from the North East as you can see on the outline on the doppler image.
In image 2 you can see the the actual small cells at this point moving towards that moisture. As the afternoon and evening falls the moisture level should increase and give a few places some showers or maybe a rumble or 2.


3090659A-E621-40D0-B99E-CF69975493B3.jpeg


5358E2B9-7BA1-45E0-A6FB-4DF93C35C421.jpeg

Edited by user Tuesday, 19 October 2021 4:56:39 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Spelling doh

Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#8 Posted : Tuesday, 19 October 2021 7:16:43 PM(UTC)
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I know these pictures belong in another thread outside of this area but what monster hail that fell. This was just North of Mackay.

https://7news.com.au/new...ther-continues-c-4278698

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=4359478364099237

FCA92E85-EF28-4DA6-8FE7-7802CBCAE131.jpeg

4181DF59-7054-4003-AFAD-7710FB486E70.jpeg




Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#9 Posted : Tuesday, 19 October 2021 7:33:49 PM(UTC)
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A decent severe storm around Noosa this evening.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Southeast Queensland
for GIANT HAILSTONES and DAMAGING WINDS
For people in parts of Gympie and Noosa Council Areas.

Issued at 7:18 pm Tuesday, 19 October 2021.

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 7:10 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near the area north of Gympie and Mount Kanighan. These thunderstorms are moving towards the southeast. They are forecast to affect Gympie and Goomboorian by 7:40 pm and the area east of Gympie, the area northeast of Gympie and Pomona by 8:10 pm.

Giant hailstones and damaging winds are likely.

179A3733-BF28-4380-9F40-0CE6A45257C9.jpeg

74116B63-D4F1-4B08-A973-FD0216FC39D3.jpeg

Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#10 Posted : Wednesday, 20 October 2021 8:15:58 AM(UTC)
Colmait

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Storms are forecast to fire off around The SEQ and NE NSW from approximately midmorning onwards.
Storms are currently present between Bunderberg and Shoalwater Bay. ( image 1)

I have used the forecast sounding while waiting for the Brisbane Sounding to arrive. (image 2) I have adjusted a few parameters to match the current observations and as you can see on the sounding there is plenty of cape but moisture is very marginal so at this stage you wouldn’t expect a lot of rain from this system.
Tomorrow looks the better of the two storm days ahead.


CBF91FFF-E860-4BA2-9ED4-FD3FF5F7B3DD.jpeg

82FD5E17-0F29-4425-ABBB-A5399F00B76B.jpeg

Possible storms/showers from mid to late morning.

D04845D4-2B0F-4CE5-8F6A-711BF4ADA38F.jpeg

BE274E9A-F87E-4295-A80A-FD2EC37CF14C.jpeg

2C98757D-9C1C-4EBE-B951-C1B821DDF03B.jpeg

Edited by user Wednesday, 20 October 2021 8:25:11 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Add image

Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#11 Posted : Wednesday, 20 October 2021 11:29:35 AM(UTC)
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After looking at the latest sounding for Brisbane there is once again an issue with moisture. We should still see some showers or a few storm cells develop.

As you can see on the sounding nice cape but moisture is a problem.

1852E688-7777-4322-8BBF-2DF273BCFE71.jpeg

Current radar sweep showing no cells or showers developing as early as modelling suggested. But should still develop within the next hour or so and into the afternoon/evening. Not a lot of rain expected.

930BABDD-9CDB-4EE5-B6A4-648CDD0711BC.jpeg

I have added the sounding for Rockhampton and as is visible there is plenty of moisture, in fact it would suggest more of thundery showers as it is a little too saturated now as the storms passed through earlier this morning.

78FCCCEF-B51E-42DD-88BC-96192626DF88.jpeg

The Rockhampton radar sweep showing activity.

A382F7D5-A1F8-4D66-A9BB-2E7A172A0B27.jpeg

Edited by user Wednesday, 20 October 2021 11:37:47 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Speilink

Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#12 Posted : Wednesday, 20 October 2021 1:16:35 PM(UTC)
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The radar is being peppered with cells as the front moves towards the east.
The satellite imagery shows the cells interacting nicely with the extra moisture coming off the Bay/Ocean.

562AC2AC-6095-4CE5-BB0A-6150E050A2B7.jpeg

B0438E3C-78C7-4A82-8B4A-E77583DA456E.jpeg

The doppler showing nice band of moisture and this is also visible on the Mt Stapy radar sweep.

7912712A-6133-4651-8A6D-BDF3987DEACD.jpeg

01D049CF-53EE-45FB-8D89-0C327DD9EE54.jpeg


The cell out towards Crows nest has been interesting with a fair bit of rotation as it very slowly moves north east.

3C98F521-4EBF-4AAD-B414-2F48876F7F23.jpeg
Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#13 Posted : Wednesday, 20 October 2021 1:19:46 PM(UTC)
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TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Southeast Queensland
for DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAILSTONES and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in parts of Gympie and Noosa Council Areas.

Issued at 1:02 pm Wednesday, 20 October 2021.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 1:00 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near Imbil. These thunderstorms are moving towards the north to northeast. They are forecast to affect the ranges between Gympie and Murgon and Kandanga by 1:30 pm and the area south of Gympie and Amamoor by 2:00 pm.

Damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding are likely.

7469A42B-3B37-4D70-8007-7F1314B91C83.jpeg
Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#14 Posted : Wednesday, 20 October 2021 3:23:49 PM(UTC)
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TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Southeast Queensland
for DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in parts of Ipswich, Somerset, Scenic Rim and Brisbane City Council Areas.

Issued at 3:14 pm Wednesday, 20 October 2021.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 3:10 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near Rathdowney and Marburg. These thunderstorms are moving towards the northeast to southeast. They are forecast to affect Lake Manchester by 4:10 pm.

Damaging winds and large hailstones are likely.

7DD07254-98AA-4216-961C-7724B6172A66.png
Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#15 Posted : Wednesday, 20 October 2021 4:25:41 PM(UTC)
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Latest update from BoM


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Southeast Queensland
for DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in parts of Scenic Rim Council Area.

Issued at 4:09 pm Wednesday, 20 October 2021.

Plan Image
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 4:10 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near Kooralbyn, Moogerah Dam, Laravale and Moogerah. These thunderstorms are moving towards the southeast. They are forecast to affect Maroon Dam by 4:40 pm and Mount Barney and Lamington National Park by 5:10 pm.

Damaging winds and large hailstones are likely.

5C33B040-B063-4AC6-8AFF-4B9744D034F4.jpeg

76B26C7C-4BEA-474C-AB79-3FF6FD09A80B.png

Edited by user Wednesday, 20 October 2021 4:26:36 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#16 Posted : Wednesday, 20 October 2021 4:29:33 PM(UTC)
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BoM’s storm tracker pilot system prediction of current storms and cells

4F0242ED-0ACD-47F5-B50E-075FFB52167F.jpeg
Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#17 Posted : Wednesday, 20 October 2021 6:59:02 PM(UTC)
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Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Southeast Queensland
for DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAILSTONES and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in parts of Ipswich, Logan, Scenic Rim and Brisbane City Council Areas.

Issued at 6:49 pm Wednesday, 20 October 2021.
0FAC7AC1-698F-474F-9795-ABB51536C5E4.png
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 6:45 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near Bundamba Lagoon. These thunderstorms are moving towards the east to northeast. They are forecast to affect Harrisville and Greenbank by 7:15 pm and Peak Crossing, Logan Village and the area south of Amberley by 7:45 pm.

Damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding are likely.

45mm has been recorded at Mt Alford in 1 hour.

Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#18 Posted : Wednesday, 20 October 2021 8:13:00 PM(UTC)
Colmait

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Storm on the Southside of Brisbane has been a very powerful cell.

E38945D2-F9DD-48BB-B974-976367F01D3D.png

C6C5BB57-CFAB-4C13-AF22-49D30CF32808.png

EE3D0E80-A979-47D7-A240-78095261A59A.png

A5B33B6B-C4AF-400D-A19E-F4397CAC8C50.png
Colin Maitland.
Offline Colmait  
#19 Posted : Thursday, 21 October 2021 1:50:32 PM(UTC)
Colmait

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Storms firing off very quickly this afternoon.

STW are in place
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Southeast Queensland
for DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAILSTONES and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in parts of Logan, Redland City and Moreton Bay Council Areas.

Issued at 1:40 pm Thursday, 21 October 2021.

8755A82C-1E0E-4A1C-A356-0536FA3C94C8.png

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 1:40 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near Beachmere. These thunderstorms are slow moving. They are forecast to affect Beenleigh, Deception Bay waters and Bribie Island by 2:40 pm.

Damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding are likely.

Sweep of the radar 128K and 256K from Mt Stapy

81334D59-F22E-4F0B-A5E9-3C8383DC906E.jpeg

DED61C22-2DCE-4370-A0BD-22B2FE1D4952.jpeg
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