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Offline Ken  
#621 Posted : Friday, 8 November 2019 2:36:10 PM(UTC)
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1st and 2nd images above via WZ - You can clearly see the major increase in smoke density as time goes on today in the "with and without radar overlay" comparisons. Ten of the fires burning in NSW have now reached Emergency Warning status.
3rd image - ACCESS-C and EC are still trying to form very isolated convection near the border coast tomorrow but even if that occurs, they'll be useless as any significant rain producers... if anything, they may have some dry lightning in them.

Also above are some terrifying photos that have emerged a short time ago of the fire northeast of Taree. These were taken by Kelly-ann Oosterbeek and can be seen at https://www.facebook.com.../posts/10156163538166685
15 of the fires in NSW are now at Emergency Warning level.

P.S. tsunami: Nah it's from the fire near there.
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Offline Pabloako  
#622 Posted : Friday, 8 November 2019 6:17:22 PM(UTC)
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My goodness. Thanks for posting the images Ken. Horrible to see and such nasty conditions.

I was ok up here today luckily and bonfires in my local area. We did manage to reach 36.9°C, with a DP.of 1.2°C, so a RH or around 11%. These are near records for my location.

No rain is forecast on GFS for over the next 7 days and hot temps are forecast for Next Thursday. Is there anything on any of the models you can access Ken?
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Offline DelBoy  
#623 Posted : Friday, 8 November 2019 6:19:26 PM(UTC)
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Shocking day here today in Cabo. My weather station recorded 38.6 today. Still alr ady over 30. Blink
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Offline SatMan  
#624 Posted : Friday, 8 November 2019 6:21:27 PM(UTC)
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That is a great image Ken. The smoke and dust are amazing to look at.
Is it normal for smoke to show on radar images? I assume the smoke particles have to be over a specific size to show up????

Edited by user Friday, 8 November 2019 6:22:49 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline Ken  
#625 Posted : Friday, 8 November 2019 6:33:42 PM(UTC)
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Yep it's common for them to show up on radar but mainly for dense smoke plumes that also contain ash, etc from large intense fires.

Re the smoke, the low level winds range from S to SE'lies near the surface (behind the coastal change) to S to SSW'lies a little bit above the surface so that could start blowing the lower level sections of the current smoke plumes up towards SE QLD especially southern and eastern parts on Saturday.
Meanwhile mid and upper level winds have a more SW to W'ly component so they may continue to blow the upper portions of the plumes out to sea.

As for the dust, I wouldn't be too surprised if some of it from the dust storms currently sweeping across inland NSW makes it here in the form of dust haze overnight or on Saturday, and adds to any smoke that pushes up here from NSW as well as some of the fires in SE QLD.

EC and ACCESS-C is still persisting with the idea of very isolated shower or storm activity for southern coastal parts of SE QLD and the Northern Rivers for Saturday but still useless as decent rain producers and may produce some dry lightning.

And very slim pickings as far as any decent rainfall goes Pabloako. Might have to wait til after mid November or even beyond for any half decent rainfall.
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Offline Falling_Droplet  
#626 Posted : Friday, 8 November 2019 6:38:00 PM(UTC)
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Ended up with a maximum temperature of 40.3 C exceeding the previous record high at my location of 39.6 C. The temperature was stubbornly stable at 40 C for 3 hours this afternoon before falling and is still quite warm at 33 C. The very low dew point was stable for much of the afternoon and is currently slowly falling at -28 C. Relative humidity has been stuck at 1% since 1pm, but now it is 2%. Light to moderate W to NW winds has continued though easing from later in the afternoon. Some N to NW winds also and even less of N to NE winds.
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Offline SatMan  
#627 Posted : Friday, 8 November 2019 7:01:55 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Ken Go to Quoted Post
Yep it's common for them to show up on radar but mainly for dense smoke plumes that also contain ash, etc from large intense fires.

Re the smoke, the low level winds range from S to SE'lies near the surface (behind the coastal change) to S to SSW'lies a little bit above the surface so that could start blowing the lower level sections of the current smoke plumes up towards SE QLD especially southern and eastern parts on Saturday.
Meanwhile mid and upper level winds have a more SW to W'ly component so they may continue to blow the upper portions of the plumes out to sea.

As for the dust, I wouldn't be too surprised if some of it from the dust storms currently sweeping across inland NSW makes it here in the form of dust haze overnight or on Saturday, and adds to any smoke that pushes up here from NSW as well as some of the fires in SE QLD.

EC and ACCESS-C is still persisting with the idea of very isolated shower or storm activity for southern coastal parts of SE QLD and the Northern Rivers for Saturday but still useless as decent rain producers and may produce some dry lightning.

And very slim pickings as far as any decent rainfall goes Pabloako. Might have to wait til after mid November or even beyond for any half decent rainfall.


Stunning explanation thank you.
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Offline CantSpellNarangba  
#628 Posted : Friday, 8 November 2019 7:03:29 PM(UTC)
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39.2°C for me today. Yuck.
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Falling_Droplet on 8/11/2019(UTC), retired weather man on 9/11/2019(UTC)
Offline Falling_Droplet  
#629 Posted : Friday, 8 November 2019 11:54:16 PM(UTC)
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The dew point and relative humidity started to rise tonight whilst remaining low but have since started to fall again (dew point of -20 C and relative humidity of 2%). This was accompanied by a small rise in the temperature which is currently 29 C. NNW to WNW winds eased earlier tonight but have since increased with the drop in humidity.

Last 24 hours:
temp 2019-11-8.PNGhum 2019-11-8.PNGwind speed 2019-11-8.PNGwind dir 2019-11-8.PNG
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retired weather man on 9/11/2019(UTC)
Offline retired weather man  
#630 Posted : Saturday, 9 November 2019 7:48:45 AM(UTC)
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WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

DATE....9 NOV 2019 TIME....0740

CURRENT TEMPERATURE...24.4C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........66%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......18C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...SE 7Kph
CURRENT VISIBILITY.....7000M
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE...1009.5Hpa
CURRENT CLOUD..........Nil
CURRENT WEATHER...Smoke haze
RAIN SINCE 0900 FRIDAY...0.0mm

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP. .......32.6C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP......16.6C
PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..+1.65C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....14.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......14C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP........1005.5Hpa
MAX WIND GUST LAST 24 HOURS....N 54Kph at 1503
PAST 24 HR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...Smoke haze.
Wyn Nth 2019-Jan11,Feb47,Mar285,Apr97,May37,Jun70,Jul20,Aug7,Sep13,Oct83,Nov38,YTD710(1015)
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Falling_Droplet on 9/11/2019(UTC)
Offline SatMan  
#631 Posted : Saturday, 9 November 2019 9:37:54 AM(UTC)
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Herr is an image from about 30 minutes ago, with a couple.of adjustments to lighten the image a bit.

Untitled.jpg

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Falling_Droplet on 9/11/2019(UTC)
Offline Zuldjan  
#632 Posted : Saturday, 9 November 2019 10:03:43 AM(UTC)
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Spent overnight in Jimna, monitoring a fire there.

Apocalyptic is the words that come to mind - when your sitting in a valley, and everything around you is dark - or on fire.

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Offline Falling_Droplet  
#633 Posted : Saturday, 9 November 2019 10:19:32 AM(UTC)
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Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 9 Nov 2019
Time: 9:40 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 22.3 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 40.3 C
Min Ground Temp: 17.4 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 29.1 C
Relative Humidity: 13 %
Dew Point: -2.1 C
MSL Pressure: 1009.7 hPa
Wind Speed: 14 kph - gentle breeze
Wind Direction: W

Present Weather: Haze
Visibility: 4km to 9km - Moderate Visibility
Cloud Cover: 0/8
Ground State: Ground dry

Notes of yesterday weather - 8/11/19: Fine with smoke haze. A cold morning and a hot day. The temperature was stable for 3 hours at 40 C from 4pm. The temperature rose later in the evening and was 29 C at the end of the day. Dew point was moderately low and stable early in the day before slowly rising. From 8am the dew point fell very quickly and was between -20 C and -30 C from the late morning to early afternoon before falling slowly for much of the afternoon to a low of -30 C. In the evening the dew point rose quite quickly whilst remaining very low before falling again later in the evening to -20 C. Relative humidity was low over the entire day which fell quickly during the morning becoming 1 to 5 % from the late morning to early afternoon before staying at 1% for the rest of the afternoon. In the evening the relative humidity rose to 19% before slipping back to 3 % at the end of the day. Light and variable winds at times early in the day before light SSE to E winds early in the morning, then light but gusty W to NW winds with some N to NE winds from mid morning with a small amount of N to NE winds. In the evening was NNW to WNW winds easing in speed in the evening increasing later in the evening.

Today: Smoke haze. A warm morning with the minimum temperature only 0.4 C lower than the minimum temperature in the evening last night. Dew point rose in the early hours and have remained near 0 C since 4:30am. Relative humidity has also been low reaching a maximum of 25% around sunrise and have since dropped back to 13%. Light NNW to WNW winds with some WNW to SW also since 6 am.
Offline DelBoy  
#634 Posted : Saturday, 9 November 2019 10:31:55 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Zuldjan Go to Quoted Post
Spent overnight in Jimna, monitoring a fire there.

Apocalyptic is the words that come to mind - when your sitting in a valley, and everything around you is dark - or on fire.



Nasty images on TV.

So are you a RFS volunteer?
Offline Pabloako  
#635 Posted : Saturday, 9 November 2019 10:37:34 AM(UTC)
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Eery start to the day up here. Visibility is only a few KM and a browny grey coloured sky, but it doesn't smell of smoke. Almost like dust.

Wind is pretty gusty from the dry SW and gusting 15-20kts. Leaves are literally falling off of the trees.

Currently 27°C and 26% humidity, so nicer than yesterday.
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Falling_Droplet on 9/11/2019(UTC)
Offline Zuldjan  
#636 Posted : Saturday, 9 November 2019 1:52:03 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: DelBoy Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Zuldjan Go to Quoted Post
Spent overnight in Jimna, monitoring a fire there.

Apocalyptic is the words that come to mind - when your sitting in a valley, and everything around you is dark - or on fire.



Nasty images on TV.

So are you a RFS volunteer?


Yes.

UserPostedImage
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Offline Falling_Droplet  
#637 Posted : Saturday, 9 November 2019 2:29:33 PM(UTC)
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Much cooler today and not too much above average with a maximum of 31.8 C. Dew point have crashed again from 0 C at 10am and have been -30 C for the last hour. Relative humidity also fell being 1 % for the last hour. Light W to SW winds with some W to NW winds for the last few hours.

Seems that this pattern will keep going until we get more typical weather. I hate to think what summer will be like if don't get rain.
Offline Zuldjan  
#638 Posted : Saturday, 9 November 2019 4:07:18 PM(UTC)
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Ken - what’s the weather looking like over the next week?, return to severe possible?
Offline SatMan  
#639 Posted : Saturday, 9 November 2019 5:18:07 PM(UTC)
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RFS website has updated for Wednesday for Severe. It was like this last week. It started off a Severe and then increased to Extreme as the week progressed. I really hope the predicted southerly change is earlier in the day, so we don't get too hot.

Edited by user Saturday, 9 November 2019 5:19:01 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Auto predict issue!

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Offline Falling_Droplet  
#640 Posted : Saturday, 9 November 2019 8:32:13 PM(UTC)
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The dew point stayed at -30 C for 3 hrs before rising very sharply to 5 C in 1 minute at 4:21 pm. The dew point continued to rise slowly before stabilising at 11 C (4 C below average). Compared to the dew point the temperature was very stable for most of the afternoon and remained near 30 C from the late morning until the rise in humidity when the temperature dropped and is now 21 C. Relative humidity was also low at 1% for 3 hrs before rising very quickly by 21% in 1 minute, continued to rise at a slower rate thereafter and is now stable at 43%. W to SW winds with some W to NW winds shifted SE to ENE later in the afternoon with the rise in humidity.
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