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Offline Colmait  
#121 Posted : Tuesday, 26 March 2024 3:34:28 PM(UTC)
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Been constant rain around Brisbane today. Made driving interesting as we drove into some heavy falls this morning on the Gateway.

Below is the satellite image of the cloud band covering the South East and the 2nd image is the rainfall around the areas of this thread.

IMG_3837.jpeg

IMG_3838.jpeg
Colin Maitland.
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Aussie Girl on 27/03/2024(UTC)
Offline Aussie Girl  
#122 Posted : Wednesday, 27 March 2024 8:41:03 AM(UTC)
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A little warmer again this morning at 22°C and the sun is making a valiant effort to poke through the clouds. It is quite breezy this morning. I am hoping by looking at the 512km radar image that we may have a reprieve coming from the constant rain/showers, even if it is only for a short time.

512km.JPG
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Colmait on 27/03/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#123 Posted : Thursday, 28 March 2024 7:01:54 AM(UTC)
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I can see some blue sky between the clouds this morning. Nice change. Almost forgot what blue looked like. BigGrin

Unfortunately it is going to be a little bit of a mixed bag over the Long Weekend with showers or partly cloudy days.
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Aussie Girl on 28/03/2024(UTC)
Offline Aussie Girl  
#124 Posted : Thursday, 28 March 2024 10:35:13 AM(UTC)
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Yes I too saw some blue sky when I looked out the window early this morning. A lovely surprise. And the sun has made a few brief appearances this morning Smile

Hoping that mixed bag of forecasts for the next few days brings us some more time with no showers.
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Colmait on 28/03/2024(UTC)
Offline Aussie Girl  
#125 Posted : Friday, 29 March 2024 9:03:58 AM(UTC)
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Another nice sunny morning. Looks like it’s going to be warmer today with a forecast max of 28. And unfortunately more showers predicted for this afternoon.

On a less official weather forecasting note - I know Autumn is definitely here now as the first of the Currawongs arrived in our yard this morning. I love hearing the Currawongs songs. They remind me of our visits to the amazing Girraween National Park where there are many of them.
I
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Colmait on 30/03/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#126 Posted : Saturday, 30 March 2024 1:34:39 PM(UTC)
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Friday afternoon had that beautiful autumn feel about it. Temperature was just right.

My wife grew up on an orchard in Applethorpe so Stanthorpe is a yearly visit. We usually rent a cottage and use it as our base. We usually pick it when it is likely to snow. Had some great snow chases over the decades. Guyra has been some of the best.

But we love Girraween National park and the climbs and walks. Camped a few times in tents. Nice and crisp.

But snow over the last couple of years have been grim.

Unfortunately in between the cooler temperatures we have a hot day coming up with a Max. of 30°C forecast. This summer has been too long and too hot.
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Aussie Girl on 30/03/2024(UTC)
Offline Aussie Girl  
#127 Posted : Saturday, 30 March 2024 5:58:27 PM(UTC)
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It was another warmish day today and thankfully no rain or showers during the day. Not really looking forward to the hot days forecast for this coming week.

My husband and I have visited the Stanthorpe area many times over the years, staying in various cottages, cabins and motels. We really love it down there and at one stage were even considering moving to the area. That idea was scrapped after we stayed for a few days in 2019. The dryness was absolutely awful and heartbreaking to see. We spoke to many locals as well as business owners who were struggling to keep going during the drought. Water was being trucked into town and people were spending hundreds of dollars a week on animal feed just to keep alive the small amount of animals they had left.

I also spoke with a guy at work who owned a cherry farm down that way. He and his wife ended up selling the farm as they just could not sustain it with the water problems down there.

Even though the drought eventually broke we realised that with climate change, water could be an ongoing problem in the years to come.

We still love to visit the area though but have never actually been there when it is snowing. That is something to add to the bucket list (if it ever does snow again).
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Colmait on 31/03/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#128 Posted : Sunday, 31 March 2024 8:39:21 AM(UTC)
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The drought was a horrid time for so many. Storm King Dam was just about empty. The worst I had ever seen.

Then covid also took its toll. One of our favourite stops was the Bramble patch. Although they still produce their fine and award winning products they were forced to shut the cafe which had this beautiful ice cream, we would all get one and go outside and sit in the cold and eat it while chatting to the dog. Overcast and 4°C a couple of times. We did that from when the kids were young to adulthood. The owners had a photo album of all the storms, the snow and hail and floods. We would chat for quite some time.

But my wife and in-laws battled everything. One good season followed by hail, floods or drought. By that stage they needed 3 good seasons but it didn’t happen. Then in the mid 80’s interest rates were so high they ended up selling the farm. To be honest the banks were not kind to the farmers up their either.

So it is a beautiful place but it is a harsh place. We too were going to move up but in the early 90’s. Work was the problem.

The breeze here yesterday afternoon was very refreshing. Really felt like Autumn.

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Aussie Girl on 1/04/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#129 Posted : Monday, 1 April 2024 6:56:45 AM(UTC)
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A few showers over the next 4 -8 days. days with Thursday and Friday looking to be the peak of the days with the possibility of up to 50+mm then starting to ease back on Saturday. There is the possibility of up to 70 - 100 mm in some areas within this thread.

This is the result of a trough that is over Central Australia and is dragging moisture into South East Queensland. That trough should reach us by late Wednesday night/ early Thursday morning and will hang around for a few days before moving offshore.

Below is the WATL rain forecast for the next 4 days.

IMG_3848.jpeg
Colin Maitland.
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Aussie Girl on 1/04/2024(UTC)
Offline Aussie Girl  
#130 Posted : Monday, 1 April 2024 8:45:48 AM(UTC)
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We had a showery, drizzly day yesterday and it looks like much the same for today.

The rain forecast map posted by Colmait doesn't bode well for school holiday plans such as camping this week. I know some who have already had to cancel their camping trip due to this rainy weather.

We also love visiting the Bramble Patch and enjoying one of their delicious ice creams when we are in Stanthorpe. We haven't visited since covid though, so were not aware that the cafe had closed. That is sad that your wife's parents had to sell their farm. The weather must have taken a terrible toll on the fruit farmers down there over the years. I remember in 2019 we travelled the road called The Fruit Run and could not get over how run down and sad everything looked compared to many years before.

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Colmait on 1/04/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#131 Posted : Tuesday, 2 April 2024 7:45:18 AM(UTC)
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It was a real hit and miss with the heavy showers last night as can be seen by the Metropolitan Rainfall Map for Brisbane I have posted below.

We had 6mm in our suburb during the night. Today should see less shower activity. According to BoM there is a 40% chance of 0.2mm, 50% chance of 0mm and a 25% chance of 1mm. I just love their rain forecast projections. BigGrin

The Fruit Run used to be the old Highway into Stanthorpe. We used on day 1 do Donnelley’s Castle, Pozieres then the Fruit Run. Donnelley’s Castle was the lookout so we could see for clouds down South and then explore the narrow tracks between the Granite Rock. Now we just check for clouds and the scenery.

IMG_3849.jpeg
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Aussie Girl on 2/04/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#132 Posted : Tuesday, 2 April 2024 3:26:31 PM(UTC)
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Unfortunately this afternoon has turned into a nightmare for April. The heat once again keeps prevailing and making things uncomfortable. The current temperature is 28..3°C but the feels like is 31.6°C.
It has been relentless except for a few days in March.

IMG_3850.jpeg
Colin Maitland.
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Aussie Girl on 2/04/2024(UTC)
Offline Aussie Girl  
#133 Posted : Tuesday, 2 April 2024 7:35:42 PM(UTC)
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Well that was a hot and sticky afternoon, more like summer than Autumn. And tomorrow has a forecast max of 31 and more showers. I am really over this weather.

After posting yesterday about the weather wrecking school holiday camping plans for some people, I read in the news that dozens of campers were stranded and had to be rescued from a camp ground near Mt Isa due to flash flooding. It was quite a scary situation apparently. I realise that area of Qld is not covered by this thread, but thought it was a good example of the havoc this weather is causing holiday campers. I have never been to Mt Isa or that area so am not familiar with the camp ground or what creeks/rivers around the area may have caused the flash flood - just know what I read in the news article that it was to do with storms and heavy rain.

We have been to Donnelly’s Castle a few times while visiting Stanthorpe and had lots of fun exploring the areas between those awesome huge rocks.

On the news tonight it mentioned that parts of the South East are in for another drenching over the next few days. Just what we don’t need Sad
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Colmait on 3/04/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#134 Posted : Wednesday, 3 April 2024 6:50:19 AM(UTC)
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A trough well move over Southern Queensland this morning/ today as shown by the arrows I have highlighted on the 4 day chart below. This is from a low and cold front that is moving Eastwards across the Tasman Sea. If the timing is right we could see some storm activity with it.

IMG_3852.jpeg

The trough should stall and deepen on Thursday and interact with an upper trough Crossing Eastern Australia (which can be seen in image 3&4 of the 4 day chart) which in turn will cause widespread rain. Below is the ECMWF highlighting the moisture behind this system up till l8:00 am Thursday. At this stage there are some discrepancies on how much rain will fall, so to be honest it is one of these systems that you have to watch and be ready for in real time.

IMG_3851.jpeg

Over the Weekend this system should weaken and move off the Coast.

Edited by user Wednesday, 3 April 2024 6:57:34 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Colin Maitland.
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Aussie Girl on 3/04/2024(UTC)
Offline Aussie Girl  
#135 Posted : Wednesday, 3 April 2024 2:22:07 PM(UTC)
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It is ridiculously hot here today. 30 but feels like 33.

I have just checked the radar and there are some storms building up out west and to the north.
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Colmait on 3/04/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#136 Posted : Wednesday, 3 April 2024 7:26:07 PM(UTC)
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Just an update on the storms from the weather front approaching.

STW

IMG_3858.jpeg

Possible course they may follow using Thunderstorm Tracker pilot program from BoM

IMG_3857.jpeg

Latest Radar signature from Mt Stapylton

IMG_3855.jpeg

And Energex Lightning Tracker

IMG_3856.jpeg

Colin Maitland.
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Aussie Girl on 3/04/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#137 Posted : Wednesday, 3 April 2024 8:51:16 PM(UTC)
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Some heavy falls are coming out of those cells. 81.0 mm was recorded in 60 minutes to 7:22 pm at Coulson Crossing. Another 70.0 mm was recorded in the 2 hours to 7:58 pm at Kalbar.

Below is the latest STW with a Very Dangerous Storm been labelled to one of the cells. Also is the Radar sweep and rainfall rates from Mt Stapylton.

IMG_3859.jpeg

IMG_3861.jpeg

IMG_3860.jpeg
Colin Maitland.
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Aussie Girl on 3/04/2024(UTC)
Offline Aussie Girl  
#138 Posted : Wednesday, 3 April 2024 10:16:32 PM(UTC)
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The radar is looking quite impressive now.

Screenshot_20240403_220655_Chrome.jpg
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Colmait on 4/04/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#139 Posted : Thursday, 4 April 2024 6:16:04 AM(UTC)
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It was quite a mixed bag from yesterday afternoon to this morning with rainfall across the Southeast and NENSW. The areas within this thread.

Majority of stations registered 0 mm while other stations recorded 120+mm. This was mainly to the West and to the South of the CBD. It was also quite an unpleasant night as well as the feel like temperatures for many areas sat around 27°C and plus such as the Brisbane CBD. Our area dipped slightly then after midnight rose again to an average of 27°C (apparent temperature).

Here is the latest rainfall map.

IMG_3866.jpeg

Edited by user Thursday, 4 April 2024 6:17:44 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Colin Maitland.
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Aussie Girl on 5/04/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#140 Posted : Friday, 5 April 2024 6:24:23 AM(UTC)
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IMG_3870.jpeg

In the image above is the possibility for heavy rainfall towards the Southern areas and into NSW. The timing has been a bit out for QLD at this stage. But you can see there are two troughs in action. Trough 1 is / has developed a low , trough 2 with higher and cooler winds should feed into this trough/low and enhance rainfall considerably.

As far as we are going, we have at this stage recorded 12 mm for the entire event.
Just have to see how it pans out. As I said the other day, there was so much discrepancies in the forecast and it would come down to a real time weather event for a more accurate forecast.

IMG_3869.jpeg

This is Trough 1 with the low developing on the Southern flank.

Edited by user Friday, 5 April 2024 7:48:45 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Grammar

Colin Maitland.
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Aussie Girl on 5/04/2024(UTC)
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