The beginning of Spring is here and we have a mixed bag of weather, from beautiful warm and pleasant days to cooler and showery days ahead of us. For storms it is a little on the miserable side of things. Once again stormcasts have no storms for the SE QLD and NE NSW for the next 8 days once again.

All the weather producing storms has been slowly moving into the tropics. The only chance for storms at this stage is a ridge of weather that moves down the interior of Australia and may cause a storm in the far south west of Queensland on Monday. As per the stormcast modelling bellow.



As for the rest of the area within this thread it is very quiet in terms of storms. (As per the stormcast for today and for next 8 days). There still may be the outside chance of storms even though modelling doesn’t suggest so. Given the right atmospheric conditions we could see the odd cell pop up or have the occasional thundery shower. Although for storms fanatics, it is looking a little quiet but this will change and it appears we could see some big storm days approaching soon. Either later in September or October. I do believe that it will be a bigger storm season than we have seen for a couple of years. It has been some time since I have seen very low LI indexes such as -8 or lower and high cape values over 2000-3000 plus. I am sure we will see this in the coming months.

The storm cast below from Friday through to next Saturday looking bare for our area.





Enjoy the pleasant weather before summer arrives.

Edited by user Saturday, 6 September 2025 8:05:48 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

A massive High is sitting over most of Australia. It will move slowly to the Easy only for another High to take its place. We have a run of cooler and the occasional cloudy days ahead of us for at least the next eight days. Of course this could change as I am only running of the models for Australia. Today could see an odd shower or to pop up.

Next Wednesday a warmer change moves through with temperatures expected to reach 30°+C. GFS is showing some storm activity developing off the NSW Coast later next Friday and well into the night.
There may be a light show for some on the Cold Coast border Region and those in the NE NSW. It is the only signs of activity at this stage. But as it is storm season it one of those things that you need to keep an eye on as it can change quickly.

Below is todays GFS stormcast and lack of anything to see. And also the old faithful 4 day map.

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I have also included the possibility of some storm activity developing off the NSW Coast on late next Friday as per the GFS stormcast and other modelling systems.



As we know, it is storm season and even though the models do not pick up changes happening throughout the days ahead, there still can be the chance of storms if atmospheric conditions rapidly change. So please still be vigilant. The models do try and allow for the Chaos factor but they don’t always get it right. The next lot of runs over the next few days could change the whole outcome.

Stay safe and enjoy the beautiful cooler days.

Edited by user Friday, 12 September 2025 7:53:16 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Speiling thingyme bobs

There is a small chance of some storm activity East of the Ranges later this afternoon /tonight.

Storms should develop in the Southern Interior of Western Qld and could also make their way into the Downs from Stanthorpe to Toowoomba etc.as a Ridge moves to the East today. NE NSW may also see some activity but going off the charts and models it is not looking that impressive.

But in saying that, we are getting into storm season, so the best thing is to just keep an eye to the sky and radar and be prepared just in case.

East of the Divide is very dry and it would take a fair bit of effort for storms to reach the Coast. But once again, just keep an eye open just in case. I have posted the stormcast from GFS, the models Sounding and also have included meteyes Storm probabilities chart.


The same is likely for tomorrow but it is a wait and see what the new run of the models show, if atmospheric conditions are right and primed and also see what the Soundings are like when they come in this morning
and tomorrow.